| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999940451779109 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 5403.6 | 4786.55 | 617.05 |
| 3 | 6042.4 | 5403.5632557703 | 638.836744229699 |
| 4 | 5824.45 | 6042.36195840844 | -217.911958408441 |
| 5 | 5349.4 | 5824.46297626943 | -475.062976269434 |
| 6 | 5428.2 | 5349.42828915505 | 78.7717108449524 |
| 7 | 4906.65 | 5428.19530928476 | -521.545309284763 |
| 8 | 4965.9 | 4906.68105709528 | 59.2189429047185 |
| 9 | 4842.3 | 4965.89647361731 | -123.596473617306 |
| 10 | 4638.55 | 4842.30735995011 | -203.757359950113 |
| 11 | 4542.2 | 4638.56213338828 | -96.3621333882784 |
| 12 | 4335.15 | 4542.2057381936 | -207.055738193605 |
| 13 | 4445 | 4335.16232980083 | 109.837670199166 |
| 14 | 4750.5 | 4444.99345936215 | 305.506540637847 |
| 15 | 5081.2 | 4750.48180762903 | 330.718192370966 |
| 16 | 5476.35 | 5081.18030632003 | 395.169693679973 |
| 17 | 5359 | 5476.32646834779 | -117.326468347791 |
| 18 | 5358.5 | 5359.00698658245 | -0.506986582453465 |
| 19 | 5646.5 | 5358.50003019015 | 287.999969809851 |
| 20 | 5878 | 5646.48285011418 | 231.517149885819 |
| 21 | 6270 | 5877.98621356562 | 392.013786434381 |
| 22 | 6601.5 | 6269.97665627645 | 331.523343723547 |
| 23 | 6792 | 6601.4802583747 | 190.519741625302 |
| 24 | 6871.5 | 6791.98865488834 | 79.5113451116586 |
| 25 | 6726.5 | 6871.49526524086 | -144.995265240858 |
| 26 | 6770.5 | 6726.50863421008 | 43.9913657899169 |
| 27 | 6611 | 6770.49738039243 | -159.497380392432 |
| 28 | 6711 | 6611.00949778524 | 99.9905022147605 |
| 29 | 6089.5 | 6710.99404574349 | -621.494045743488 |
| 30 | 5858.5 | 6089.53700886472 | -231.037008864719 |
| 31 | 5673.5 | 5858.51375784284 | -185.013757842838 |
| 32 | 5531.5 | 5673.51101724012 | -142.01101724012 |
| 33 | 5081.5 | 5531.50845650342 | -450.008456503424 |
| 34 | 5057.5 | 5081.52679720297 | -24.0267972029706 |
| 35 | 4979 | 5057.50143075303 | -78.5014307530273 |
| 36 | 5003.5 | 4979.00467462054 | 24.495325379462 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 37 | 5003.49854134695 | 4417.33000348495 | 5589.66707920896 |
| 38 | 5003.49854134695 | 4174.55572666844 | 5832.44135602547 |
| 39 | 5003.49854134695 | 3988.26515673285 | 6018.73192596105 |
| 40 | 5003.49854134695 | 3831.21382317356 | 6175.78325952034 |
| 41 | 5003.49854134695 | 3692.84828453138 | 6314.14879816253 |
| 42 | 5003.49854134695 | 3567.75597009033 | 6439.24111260358 |
| 43 | 5003.49854134695 | 3452.72152122238 | 6554.27556147153 |
| 44 | 5003.49854134695 | 3345.64993505797 | 6661.34714763593 |
| 45 | 5003.49854134695 | 3245.08600823586 | 6761.91107445805 |
| 46 | 5003.49854134695 | 3149.97021088366 | 6857.02687181025 |
| 47 | 5003.49854134695 | 3059.50268048256 | 6947.49440221135 |
| 48 | 5003.49854134695 | 2973.06200151475 | 7033.93508117916 |
