| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.13020750194877 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 1720 | 2180 | -460 |
| 3 | 1580 | 2120.10454910357 | -540.104549103566 |
| 4 | 1470 | 2049.77888497362 | -579.778884973624 |
| 5 | 1330 | 1974.28732467857 | -644.287324678565 |
| 6 | 4110 | 1890.39628159491 | 2219.60371840509 |
| 7 | 1210 | 2179.40533708464 | -969.40533708464 |
| 8 | 2960 | 2053.18148976704 | 906.818510232956 |
| 9 | 1580 | 2171.25606270538 | -591.256062705382 |
| 10 | 4680 | 2094.27008776845 | 2585.72991223155 |
| 11 | 2350 | 2430.95152035433 | -80.9515203543306 |
| 12 | 1670 | 2420.41102511004 | -750.411025110038 |
| 13 | 3290 | 2322.70188009564 | 967.298119904355 |
| 14 | 990 | 2448.65135192813 | -1458.65135192813 |
| 15 | 1870 | 2258.72400317937 | -388.724003179374 |
| 16 | 1420 | 2208.10922177786 | -788.109221777862 |
| 17 | 900 | 2105.49148874738 | -1205.49148874738 |
| 18 | 3430 | 1948.52745337708 | 1481.47254662292 |
| 19 | 5000 | 2141.42629287853 | 2858.57370712147 |
| 20 | 2780 | 2513.63403441925 | 266.365965580748 |
| 21 | 1840 | 2548.31688140169 | -708.316881401693 |
| 22 | 4300 | 2456.08870968624 | 1843.91129031376 |
| 23 | 530 | 2696.17979261312 | -2166.17979261312 |
| 24 | 4650 | 2414.12693304506 | 2235.87306695494 |
| 25 | 4200 | 2705.2543797678 | 1494.7456202322 |
| 26 | 1420 | 2899.8814730271 | -1479.8814730271 |
| 27 | 1010 | 2707.18980324398 | -1697.18980324398 |
| 28 | 1710 | 2486.20295863065 | -776.202958630653 |
| 29 | 1820 | 2385.13551038211 | -565.135510382112 |
| 30 | 3630 | 2311.55062731271 | 1318.44937268729 |
| 31 | 1020 | 2483.22262657625 | -1463.22262657625 |
| 32 | 1560 | 2292.70006357484 | -732.700063574837 |
| 33 | 5340 | 2197.29701861905 | 3142.70298138095 |
| 34 | 4090 | 2606.50052319162 | 1483.49947680838 |
| 35 | 2260 | 2799.66328420914 | -539.663284209143 |
| 36 | 3860 | 2729.3950760788 | 1130.6049239212 |
| 37 | 5300 | 2876.60831891356 | 2423.39168108644 |
| 38 | 3310 | 3192.15209595125 | 117.847904048745 |
| 39 | 2650 | 3207.49677714734 | -557.49677714734 |
| 40 | 4690 | 3134.9065144505 | 1555.0934855495 |
| 41 | 4550 | 3337.3913525007 | 1212.6086474993 |
| 42 | 4530 | 3495.28209533306 | 1034.71790466694 |
| 43 | 2070 | 3630.01012892141 | -1560.01012892141 |
| 44 | 2380 | 3426.88510701977 | -1046.88510701977 |
| 45 | 5330 | 3290.57281240736 | 2039.42718759264 |
| 46 | 2440 | 3556.1215319102 | -1116.1215319102 |
| 47 | 2630 | 3410.79413536894 | -780.794135368939 |
| 48 | 8300 | 3309.1288814663 | 4990.8711185337 |
| 49 | 5940 | 3958.97774235883 | 1981.02225764117 |
| 50 | 4630 | 4216.9217018312 | 413.078298168797 |
| 51 | 5820 | 4270.70759514501 | 1549.29240485499 |
| 52 | 5490 | 4472.43708896938 | 1017.56291103062 |
| 53 | 7290 | 4604.93141369039 | 2685.06858630961 |
| 54 | 17160 | 4954.54748687488 | 12205.4525131251 |
| 55 | 1990 | 6543.78896876324 | -4553.78896876324 |
| 56 | 3860 | 5950.85148273871 | -2090.85148273871 |
| 57 | 6220 | 5678.60693422542 | 541.393065774577 |
| 58 | 6980 | 5749.10037289232 | 1230.89962710768 |
| 59 | 7860 | 5909.37273848768 | 1950.62726151232 |
| 60 | 6510 | 6163.35904144237 | 346.640958557632 |
| 61 | 6070 | 6208.49429472928 | -138.494294729284 |
| 62 | 4660 | 6190.46129857843 | -1530.46129857843 |
| 63 | 8290 | 5991.18375606126 | 2298.81624393874 |
| 64 | 5670 | 6290.50687662378 | -620.506876623775 |
| 65 | 3560 | 6209.71222627656 | -2649.71222627656 |
| 66 | 17020 | 5864.69981640998 | 11155.30018359 |
| 67 | 6520 | 7317.20358680388 | -797.203586803885 |
| 68 | 3960 | 7213.40169922155 | -3253.40169922155 |
| 69 | 7010 | 6789.78439113003 | 220.215608869969 |
| 70 | 3040 | 6818.45811545112 | -3778.45811545112 |
| 71 | 4950 | 6326.47452302017 | -1376.47452302017 |
| 72 | 2650 | 6147.24721388159 | -3497.24721388159 |
| 73 | 12420 | 5691.87939046477 | 6728.12060953523 |
| 74 | 4420 | 6567.93116784239 | -2147.93116784239 |
| 75 | 15300 | 6288.25441611973 | 9011.74558388027 |
| 76 | 6240 | 7461.65129679463 | -1221.65129679463 |
| 77 | 5560 | 7302.58313318653 | -1742.58313318653 |
| 78 | 5300 | 7075.68573647625 | -1775.68573647625 |
| 79 | 9430 | 6844.47813248362 | 2585.52186751638 |
| 80 | 3450 | 7181.13247608684 | -3731.13247608684 |
| 81 | 4510 | 6695.31103693565 | -2185.31103693565 |
| 82 | 4100 | 6410.76714583518 | -2310.76714583518 |
| 83 | 10510 | 6109.88792819069 | 4400.11207180931 |
| 84 | 3600 | 6682.81552935561 | -3082.81552935561 |
| 85 | 8080 | 6281.40982030934 | 1798.59017969066 |
| 86 | 1330 | 6515.59975463645 | -5185.59975463645 |
| 87 | 3840 | 5840.39576447908 | -2000.39576447908 |
| 88 | 10060 | 5579.92922907736 | 4480.07077092264 |
| 89 | 6000 | 6163.2680527129 | -163.268052712899 |
| 90 | 1190 | 6142.00932742111 | -4952.00932742111 |
| 91 | 5800 | 5497.2205632706 | 302.779436729398 |
| 92 | 3180 | 5536.64471736859 | -2356.64471736859 |
| 93 | 3210 | 5229.79189573926 | -2019.79189573926 |
| 94 | 3480 | 4966.79983853868 | -1486.79983853868 |
| 95 | 7010 | 4773.20734566473 | 2236.79265433527 |
| 96 | 2040 | 5064.45452956308 | -3024.45452956308 |
| 97 | 700 | 4670.64786051103 | -3970.64786051103 |
| 98 | 7610 | 4153.63972147566 | 3456.36027852434 |
| 99 | 160 | 4603.68375917727 | -4443.68375917727 |
| 100 | 6980 | 4025.08279744448 | 2954.91720255552 |
| 101 | 1680 | 4409.83518485468 | -2729.83518485468 |
| 102 | 6550 | 4054.39016470289 | 2495.60983529711 |
| 103 | 790 | 4379.33728719571 | -3589.33728719571 |
| 104 | 9140 | 3911.97864537838 | 5228.02135462162 |
| 105 | 2770 | 4592.70624609849 | -1822.70624609849 |
| 106 | 650 | 4355.37621900758 | -3705.37621900758 |
| 107 | 5410 | 3872.90843775023 | 1537.09156224977 |
| 108 | 4670 | 4073.0492903373 | 596.950709662697 |
| 109 | 5070 | 4150.77675102903 | 919.223248970971 |
| 110 | 1470 | 4270.46651401077 | -2800.46651401077 |
| 111 | 3210 | 3905.82476493025 | -695.824764930249 |
| 112 | 2140 | 3815.22316049459 | -1675.22316049459 |
| 113 | 8270 | 3597.09653755987 | 4672.90346244013 |
| 114 | 2810 | 4205.54362425195 | -1395.54362425195 |
| 115 | 5490 | 4023.83337507757 | 1466.16662492243 |
| 116 | 1310 | 4214.73926874938 | -2904.73926874938 |
| 117 | 4280 | 3836.52042475303 | 443.479575246971 |
| 118 | 2180 | 3894.26479241124 | -1714.26479241124 |
| 119 | 3640 | 3671.05465611264 | -31.0546561126448 |
| 120 | 1490 | 3667.01110691634 | -2177.01110691634 |
| 121 | 80 | 3383.54792897004 | -3303.54792897004 |
| 122 | 340 | 2953.40120557082 | -2613.40120557082 |
| 123 | 21070 | 2613.11676300354 | 18456.8832369965 |
| 124 | 16890 | 5016.34142305297 | 11873.658576947 |
| 125 | 9850 | 6562.38084534983 | 3287.61915465017 |
| 126 | 9060 | 6990.45352283575 | 2069.54647716425 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 7259.92399979418 | 488.547299498789 | 14031.3007000896 |
| 128 | 7259.92399979418 | 431.387613983985 | 14088.4603856044 |
| 129 | 7259.92399979418 | 374.702440006564 | 14145.1455595818 |
| 130 | 7259.92399979418 | 318.480152697621 | 14201.3678468907 |
| 131 | 7259.92399979418 | 262.709594230696 | 14257.1384053577 |
| 132 | 7259.92399979418 | 207.380047966896 | 14312.4679516215 |
| 133 | 7259.92399979418 | 152.481214411659 | 14367.3667851767 |
| 134 | 7259.92399979418 | 98.0031888303693 | 14421.844810758 |
| 135 | 7259.92399979418 | 43.936440385075 | 14475.9115592033 |
| 136 | 7259.92399979418 | -9.72820733219942 | 14529.5762069206 |
| 137 | 7259.92399979418 | -62.9995944820776 | 14582.8475940704 |
| 138 | 7259.92399979418 | -115.886241978473 | 14635.7342415668 |
