| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 5290 | 5290 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 5135 | 5146.73752896576 | -8.01198161578281 | -8.01198131039125 | -1.49148952814135 |
| 3 | 5075 | 5087.08790702499 | -8.43073442270776 | -8.43073442270775 | -0.885956714721333 |
| 4 | 5115 | 5120.26029835938 | -8.2247989997459 | -8.22479899974595 | 0.715065614400823 |
| 5 | 5115 | 5122.43452551071 | -8.17570966543589 | -8.1757096654359 | 0.178740847593554 |
| 6 | 5115 | 5122.54619674921 | -8.1368848754368 | -8.13688487543677 | 0.14244434611817 |
| 7 | 5230 | 5229.4044039392 | -7.60077047549514 | -7.60077047549514 | 1.9765291815708 |
| 8 | 5305 | 5306.19415602284 | -7.20916724906511 | -7.20916724906511 | 1.45048618359517 |
| 9 | 5360 | 5362.39654993881 | -6.91627354669988 | -6.91627354669988 | 1.08989433193356 |
| 10 | 5415 | 5417.23100942045 | -6.63236247911456 | -6.63236247911455 | 1.06133901789837 |
| 11 | 5370 | 5379.02715154831 | -6.77685427170862 | -6.77685427170862 | -0.542629332507163 |
| 12 | 5355 | 5362.51509548203 | -6.82120593416755 | -6.82120593416756 | -0.167320520757332 |
| 13 | 5595 | 5459.51319407531 | -11.6418214033133 | 128.06003531018 | 2.16791471341947 |
| 14 | 5485 | 5493.18629164599 | -10.4974612148945 | -10.4974612488295 | 0.658951698164242 |
| 15 | 5510 | 5517.86641098379 | -10.366954543253 | -10.366954543253 | 0.603492649843244 |
| 16 | 5565 | 5570.71665327551 | -10.2227646740159 | -10.222764674016 | 1.08540340487926 |
| 17 | 5665 | 5667.37058124658 | -9.98959569301597 | -9.98959569301598 | 1.8350380164468 |
| 18 | 5690 | 5697.07379739884 | -9.90343565952137 | -9.90343565952136 | 0.681511896785288 |
| 19 | 5750 | 5754.9264751861 | -9.75670608796712 | -9.7567060879671 | 1.16334684181513 |
| 20 | 5690 | 5702.86403525015 | -9.84812233546144 | -9.84812233546145 | -0.726371998607179 |
| 21 | 5720 | 5727.32807502955 | -9.77413890882208 | -9.77413890882205 | 0.589124495385385 |
| 22 | 5530 | 5551.93706034998 | -10.1304714693426 | -10.1304714693426 | -2.8435621287255 |
| 23 | 5495 | 5507.63954581967 | -10.203825657142 | -10.203825657142 | -0.58663054275104 |
| 24 | 5475 | 5486.04058137984 | -10.2282377906807 | -10.2282377906807 | -0.195648282604884 |
| 25 | 5455 | 5374.17161288604 | -8.00787347797987 | 88.0866078201324 | -1.93075360682491 |
| 26 | 5500 | 5498.17227507429 | -5.85030993616982 | -5.85030996073261 | 2.04828331789303 |
| 27 | 5495 | 5500.26589973215 | -5.83118448330163 | -5.83118448330166 | 0.136277860976107 |
| 28 | 5485 | 5491.07562143323 | -5.83616264339963 | -5.83616264339968 | -0.0576552429711589 |
| 29 | 5495 | 5499.77898470495 | -5.81553590980169 | -5.81553590980169 | 0.249557767154946 |
| 30 | 5500 | 5505.01223512081 | -5.79992846829852 | -5.79992846829853 | 0.189642339443071 |
| 31 | 5430 | 5440.09771636944 | -5.88329958717624 | -5.88329958717622 | -1.01464719653269 |
| 32 | 5420 | 5426.44792846364 | -5.894237338314 | -5.89423733831402 | -0.133304466487612 |
| 33 | 5455 | 5458.16028690918 | -5.84134950199462 | -5.84134950199464 | 0.645481295030846 |
| 34 | 5405 | 5413.65228843223 | -5.8956517677187 | -5.89565176771868 | -0.663675534373865 |
| 35 | 5300 | 5312.79860412673 | -6.02882092113337 | -6.02882092113337 | -1.62986117296517 |
| 36 | 5470 | 5464.55870017148 | -5.80784762274613 | -5.80784762274618 | 2.70828919040842 |
| 37 | 5440 | 5391.48289361414 | -4.84710567078799 | 53.3181622312386 | -1.23627592326576 |
| 38 | 5350 | 5357.02830987195 | -5.20481489686227 | -5.20481464624699 | -0.472550119121403 |
| 39 | 5250 | 5261.77625582012 | -5.3652775981891 | -5.36527759818916 | -1.54472792915408 |
| 40 | 5100 | 5115.56106596421 | -5.51987050305888 | -5.51987050305891 | -2.41716441725211 |
| 41 | 5065 | 5073.18614820607 | -5.55860783150188 | -5.55860783150187 | -0.632484293157182 |
| 42 | 4980 | 4991.09505350645 | -5.63873408952112 | -5.63873408952114 | -1.31340475232087 |
| 43 | 4970 | 4976.3010265548 | -5.64830743381718 | -5.64830743381716 | -0.157117589586811 |
| 44 | 4910 | 4919.35884216603 | -5.70188679608801 | -5.70188679608802 | -0.880274031071453 |
| 45 | 4840 | 4850.28599390398 | -5.76801222986015 | -5.76801222986018 | -1.08753303479495 |
| 46 | 4850 | 4855.00911923443 | -5.75707649783519 | -5.75707649783515 | 0.18004229525723 |
| 47 | 4910 | 4911.27091075875 | -5.6924967048977 | -5.69249670489771 | 1.06432825739597 |
| 48 | 4895 | 4901.02207672692 | -5.69723625032258 | -5.69723625032263 | -0.0781929189044419 |
| 49 | 4955 | 4892.80438681851 | -5.67049595252186 | 62.3754562031212 | -0.0455474322030843 |
| 50 | 4960 | 4960.31507956621 | -4.96922632967964 | -4.96922730940985 | 1.1866303302477 |
| 51 | 4940 | 4945.67186350818 | -4.98290976329148 | -4.9829097632915 | -0.165951977320116 |
| 52 | 4905 | 4912.04962384022 | -5.00786913389724 | -5.00786913389726 | -0.491442842609252 |
| 53 | 4925 | 4928.46277456984 | -4.98998744963037 | -4.98998744963034 | 0.367580825774506 |
| 54 | 4960 | 4962.19693318774 | -4.95778118919754 | -4.95778118919757 | 0.664499374229441 |
| 55 | 4925 | 4931.79310550958 | -4.97892262952082 | -4.97892262952081 | -0.436649456898676 |
| 56 | 5025 | 5023.03869029286 | -4.8990434233044 | -4.89904342330441 | 1.6511942855718 |
| 57 | 5045 | 5047.76250300308 | -4.87447290985289 | -4.87447290985294 | 0.508322439510842 |
| 58 | 5090 | 5091.37723536738 | -4.83428714205001 | -4.83428714204996 | 0.832065069837648 |
| 59 | 5120 | 5122.2583708396 | -4.80471224642592 | -4.80471224642592 | 0.612869332630037 |
| 60 | 5145 | 5147.62842710607 | -4.7797460779773 | -4.77974607797735 | 0.517792691781423 |
| 61 | 5095 | 5056.58488298514 | -4.05176206460463 | 44.5693834273259 | -1.54301549064513 |
| 62 | 5075 | 5077.25087902432 | -3.85549729622677 | -3.85549809865638 | 0.404874954446986 |
| 63 | 5125 | 5125.11108297018 | -3.79485496646537 | -3.79485496646536 | 0.887147951469214 |
| 64 | 5075 | 5081.6513575264 | -3.82351923697795 | -3.82351923697797 | -0.680597301805169 |
| 65 | 5100 | 5102.0778093863 | -3.80673088846273 | -3.80673088846271 | 0.416099826504656 |
| 66 | 5085 | 5089.44227926152 | -3.81282135243578 | -3.81282135243581 | -0.151491402638929 |
| 67 | 5065 | 5069.94208077184 | -3.82363361126378 | -3.82363361126376 | -0.269176165804333 |
| 68 | 5090 | 5091.96320522515 | -3.80583304551928 | -3.80583304551929 | 0.443464284377183 |
| 69 | 5020 | 5028.12707079435 | -3.84715039680768 | -3.84715039680771 | -1.03004598356574 |
| 70 | 5030 | 5033.20471008186 | -3.84101191315264 | -3.84101191315259 | 0.15313835999552 |
| 71 | 5000 | 5005.55485203768 | -3.8573764174374 | -3.8573764174374 | -0.408530289277695 |
| 72 | 5030 | 5031.69786262869 | -3.83677045222113 | -3.83677045222119 | 0.514769352399508 |
| 73 | 5015 | 4979.91127617713 | -3.50083900370515 | 38.5092294487438 | -0.851813488093777 |
| 74 | 4955 | 4959.71353340777 | -3.61401803036867 | -3.61401838050206 | -0.275424645125602 |
| 75 | 4940 | 4944.45523107455 | -3.62567850015187 | -3.62567850015185 | -0.199748800002559 |
| 76 | 5060 | 5055.38764349423 | -3.55496842647078 | -3.55496842647081 | 1.96558372572426 |
| 77 | 5070 | 5072.0981308348 | -3.54298394050636 | -3.54298394050633 | 0.347715445980282 |
| 78 | 5005 | 5012.56768855229 | -3.57597904973134 | -3.57597904973137 | -0.960634991119436 |
| 79 | 4945 | 4952.62772523602 | -3.60917013738867 | -3.60917013738865 | -0.967095309411084 |
| 80 | 5015 | 5013.94213689937 | -3.57096154237549 | -3.57096154237549 | 1.11396103365054 |
| 81 | 5035 | 5036.67977621021 | -3.55548761814021 | -3.55548761814025 | 0.451403804953884 |
| 82 | 4985 | 4991.54442823639 | -3.57992925865282 | -3.57992925865278 | -0.713428452485945 |
| 83 | 5020 | 5021.19144383397 | -3.56040913694686 | -3.56040913694686 | 0.570108801220722 |
| 84 | 4920 | 4929.86906006573 | -3.61193715433657 | -3.61193715433663 | -1.50582206616133 |
| 85 | 5125 | 5066.0834937081 | -4.44933622012172 | 48.9426990295218 | 2.47174772857095 |
| 86 | 5080 | 5082.9078441633 | -4.3235398474733 | -4.323540529298 | 0.352741290937674 |
| 87 | 5060 | 5065.28287129689 | -4.33516265442168 | -4.33516265442172 | -0.228175032992276 |
| 88 | 5095 | 5096.76246282262 | -4.31587054668909 | -4.31587054668912 | 0.614488891619274 |
| 89 | 5105 | 5108.1856065374 | -4.30774716701375 | -4.30774716701371 | 0.270041923414982 |
| 90 | 5105 | 5108.94394515975 | -4.30514125229224 | -4.30514125229227 | 0.0869213068585799 |
| 91 | 5115 | 5118.32250244674 | -4.298107538884 | -4.29810753888397 | 0.234777872137004 |
| 92 | 5070 | 5076.95974379781 | -4.31714953067084 | -4.31714953067084 | -0.635936177462497 |
| 93 | 5115 | 5116.18999437455 | -4.29478852877235 | -4.2947885287724 | 0.747163758588907 |
| 94 | 5150 | 5151.45406254578 | -4.27448601626563 | -4.2744860162656 | 0.678730317932974 |
| 95 | 5115 | 5121.14409040612 | -4.28784117062389 | -4.28784117062388 | -0.446703298701171 |
| 96 | 5060 | 5067.80984344897 | -4.31298709987458 | -4.31298709987464 | -0.841512567945591 |
| 97 | 5075 | 5031.65946354584 | -4.14648839689521 | 45.611373040089 | -0.560711617836507 |
| 98 | 5155 | 5150.26779330157 | -3.50277413729099 | -3.50277523615296 | 2.04349632344593 |
| 99 | 5120 | 5125.06575911517 | -3.51959216005722 | -3.51959216005727 | -0.372231656043024 |
| 100 | 5030 | 5039.41444940287 | -3.55883739516081 | -3.55883739516083 | -1.40913416900031 |
| 101 | 4995 | 5001.05588926511 | -3.57477120615892 | -3.57477120615889 | -0.597060926871562 |
| 102 | 5035 | 5035.82356556 | -3.55727364864971 | -3.55727364864975 | 0.6578437338147 |
| 103 | 4970 | 4977.48780711812 | -3.5822555975884 | -3.58225559758837 | -0.93983776608231 |
| 104 | 4970 | 4973.60390000551 | -3.58239310251568 | -3.58239310251567 | -0.00517545277243627 |
| 105 | 4975 | 4978.00925004335 | -3.57875362912397 | -3.57875362912402 | 0.137046166340534 |
| 106 | 4965 | 4968.97052110251 | -3.58124023684945 | -3.58124023684941 | -0.0936771006660597 |
| 107 | 4915 | 4921.71497650971 | -3.60112154015372 | -3.60112154015371 | -0.749322406904662 |
| 108 | 4910 | 4913.9032422517 | -3.60303741219153 | -3.6030374121916 | -0.0722417041961376 |
| 109 | 4895 | 4861.35622121851 | -3.37587397871797 | 37.1346151260257 | -0.859494581706584 |
| 110 | 4880 | 4881.6652555113 | -3.26430180064034 | -3.26430324264848 | 0.395520170116776 |
| 111 | 4910 | 4910.92408978979 | -3.24165419413131 | -3.24165419413132 | 0.557904352883424 |
| 112 | 4935 | 4936.19648020879 | -3.22941177204722 | -3.22941177204725 | 0.489206028048586 |
| 113 | 4975 | 4975.20087837737 | -3.21203545950156 | -3.21203545950152 | 0.724593645565032 |
| 114 | 4895 | 4903.14841015825 | -3.24026571617744 | -3.24026571617748 | -1.1810761358387 |
| 115 | 4940 | 4940.34094100515 | -3.22369490367184 | -3.22369490367181 | 0.693694189710265 |
| 116 | 4880 | 4886.8296701194 | -3.24429585313902 | -3.24429585313902 | -0.862769824372271 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 4903.20764674097 | 4890.2462095635 | 12.9614371774633 |
| 2 | 4882.10339556059 | 4882.84709620062 | -0.743700640036892 |
| 3 | 4857.7081223771 | 4875.44798283775 | -17.7398604606429 |
| 4 | 4854.46625854004 | 4868.04886947487 | -13.5826109348276 |
| 5 | 4898.91900425967 | 4860.64975611199 | 38.269248147677 |
| 6 | 4857.6205455863 | 4853.25064274911 | 4.36990283718543 |
| 7 | 4837.86017254034 | 4845.85152938623 | -7.99135684589313 |
| 8 | 4827.13787317414 | 4838.45241602336 | -11.3145428492121 |
| 9 | 4836.95364266715 | 4831.05330266048 | 5.90034000667371 |
| 10 | 4818.3075007706 | 4823.6541892976 | -5.34668852699876 |
| 11 | 4810.69943218965 | 4816.25507593472 | -5.55564374507662 |
| 12 | 4809.62943840553 | 4808.85596257185 | 0.773475833688636 |
