| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999943724901011 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 6827 | 6830 | -3 |
| 3 | 6841 | 6827.0001688253 | 13.9998311747031 |
| 4 | 6754 | 6840.99921215811 | -86.9992121581145 |
| 5 | 6869 | 6754.00489588928 | 114.995104110724 |
| 6 | 6809 | 6868.99352863913 | -59.9935286391337 |
| 7 | 6836 | 6809.00337614176 | 26.9966238582374 |
| 8 | 6766 | 6835.99848076232 | -69.9984807623196 |
| 9 | 6759 | 6766.00393917143 | -7.00393917143447 |
| 10 | 6719 | 6759.00039414737 | -40.0003941473706 |
| 11 | 6702 | 6719.00225102614 | -17.0022510261397 |
| 12 | 6627 | 6702.00095680336 | -75.0009568033593 |
| 13 | 6630 | 6627.00422068627 | 2.99577931373187 |
| 14 | 6606 | 6629.99983141222 | -23.9998314122222 |
| 15 | 6512 | 6606.00135059289 | -94.0013505928891 |
| 16 | 6550 | 6512.00528993531 | 37.9947100646905 |
| 17 | 6578 | 6549.99786184393 | 28.00213815607 |
| 18 | 6499 | 6577.9984241769 | -78.9984241769034 |
| 19 | 6371 | 6499.00444564414 | -128.004445644141 |
| 20 | 6332 | 6371.00720346285 | -39.0072034628492 |
| 21 | 6291 | 6332.00219513424 | -41.0021951342369 |
| 22 | 6307 | 6291.00230740259 | 15.9976925974097 |
| 23 | 6252 | 6306.99909972827 | -54.9990997282657 |
| 24 | 6250 | 6252.00309507978 | -2.00309507978182 |
| 25 | 6164 | 6250.00011272437 | -86.000112724374 |
| 26 | 6213 | 6164.00483966486 | 48.9951603351428 |
| 27 | 6174 | 6212.9972427925 | -38.9972427925022 |
| 28 | 6154 | 6174.0021945737 | -20.002194573698 |
| 29 | 6091 | 6154.00112562548 | -63.0011256254802 |
| 30 | 6096 | 6091.00354539458 | 4.99645460541979 |
| 31 | 6046 | 6095.99971882402 | -49.9997188240222 |
| 32 | 6001 | 6046.00281373913 | -45.0028137391264 |
| 33 | 5979 | 6001.0025325378 | -22.0025325377983 |
| 34 | 5921 | 5979.0012381947 | -58.0012381946963 |
| 35 | 5863 | 5921.00326402542 | -58.0032640254203 |
| 36 | 5818 | 5863.00326413942 | -45.0032641394246 |
| 37 | 5758 | 5818.00253256314 | -60.002532563145 |
| 38 | 5786 | 5758.00337664846 | 27.9966233515406 |
| 39 | 5734 | 5785.99842448725 | -51.9984244872494 |
| 40 | 5678 | 5734.00292621649 | -56.0029262164853 |
| 41 | 5610 | 5678.00315157022 | -68.0031515702167 |
| 42 | 5578 | 5610.00382688409 | -32.0038268840863 |
| 43 | 5589 | 5578.00180101853 | 10.9981989814742 |
| 44 | 5553 | 5588.99938107526 | -35.999381075263 |
| 45 | 5533 | 5553.00202586873 | -20.0020258687337 |
| 46 | 5521 | 5533.00112561599 | -12.001125615986 |
| 47 | 5464 | 5521.00067536453 | -57.0006753645321 |
| 48 | 5419 | 5464.00320771865 | -45.0032077186488 |
| 49 | 5346 | 5419.00253255997 | -73.002532559969 |
| 50 | 5296 | 5346.00410822475 | -50.0041082247462 |
| 51 | 5255 | 5296.00281398614 | -41.0028139861397 |
| 52 | 5235 | 5255.00230743742 | -20.0023074374167 |
| 53 | 5164 | 5235.00112563183 | -71.0011256318303 |
| 54 | 5164 | 5164.00399559537 | -0.0039955953734534 |
| 55 | 5172 | 5164.00000022485 | 7.99999977514744 |
| 56 | 5093 | 5171.99954979922 | -78.9995497992204 |
| 57 | 5070 | 5093.00444570749 | -23.0044457074855 |
| 58 | 5108 | 5070.00129457746 | 37.9987054225403 |
| 59 | 5051 | 5107.99786161909 | -56.9978616190901 |
| 60 | 5021 | 5051.0032075603 | -30.0032075603049 |
| 61 | 5001 | 5021.00168843348 | -20.0016884334755 |
| 62 | 4918 | 5001.001125597 | -83.0011255969966 |
| 63 | 4886 | 4918.00467089656 | -32.0046708965592 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 64 | 4886.00180106602 | 4804.35060790302 | 4967.65299422903 |
| 65 | 4886.00180106602 | 4770.53282537068 | 5001.47077676136 |
| 66 | 4886.00180106602 | 4744.58309172627 | 5027.42051040577 |
| 67 | 4886.00180106602 | 4722.70630708499 | 5049.29729504705 |
| 68 | 4886.00180106602 | 4703.43240232215 | 5068.57119980989 |
| 69 | 4886.00180106602 | 4686.00742024274 | 5085.9961818893 |
| 70 | 4886.00180106602 | 4669.98346998258 | 5102.02013214946 |
| 71 | 4886.00180106602 | 4655.06872338492 | 5116.93487874712 |
| 72 | 4886.00180106602 | 4641.06047468264 | 5130.94312744941 |
| 73 | 4886.00180106602 | 4627.81113436089 | 5144.19246777116 |
| 74 | 4886.00180106602 | 4615.2092838562 | 5156.79431827584 |
| 75 | 4886.00180106602 | 4603.16836177707 | 5168.83524035498 |
