| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.153196525584375 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 3426 | 3426 | 0 |
| 4 | 3444 | 3436 | 8 |
| 5 | 3464 | 3455.22557220467 | 8.77442779532521 |
| 6 | 3482 | 3476.56978405691 | 5.43021594309039 |
| 7 | 3496 | 3495.40167427256 | 0.598325727436077 |
| 8 | 3510 | 3509.49333569518 | 0.506664304824881 |
| 9 | 3530 | 3523.57095490631 | 6.42904509368827 |
| 10 | 3556 | 3544.55586227749 | 11.4441377225098 |
| 11 | 3580 | 3572.30906441489 | 7.69093558511213 |
| 12 | 3604 | 3597.48728902502 | 6.51271097497965 |
| 13 | 3620 | 3622.48501371852 | -2.48501371852217 |
| 14 | 3636 | 3638.10431825082 | -2.10431825081514 |
| 15 | 3648 | 3653.78194400607 | -5.78194400606662 |
| 16 | 3662 | 3664.89617027321 | -2.89617027321356 |
| 17 | 3676 | 3678.45248704986 | -2.4524870498567 |
| 18 | 3690 | 3692.07677455478 | -2.07677455477778 |
| 19 | 3700 | 3705.75861990856 | -5.75861990856401 |
| 20 | 3712 | 3714.87641934641 | -2.87641934641078 |
| 21 | 3726 | 3726.43576189642 | -0.435761896417262 |
| 22 | 3740 | 3740.3690046879 | -0.369004687903725 |
| 23 | 3760 | 3754.31247445179 | 5.6875255482073 |
| 24 | 3762 | 3775.18378360495 | -13.1837836049503 |
| 25 | 3766 | 3775.16407376262 | -9.16407376261577 |
| 26 | 3784 | 3777.76016950198 | 6.23983049801609 |
| 27 | 3800 | 3796.71608985452 | 3.28391014548424 |
| 28 | 3814 | 3813.21917347913 | 0.780826520865048 |
| 29 | 3828 | 3827.33879338922 | 0.66120661078412 |
| 30 | 3840 | 3841.44008794468 | -1.44008794468118 |
| 31 | 3850 | 3853.21947147502 | -3.21947147502033 |
| 32 | 3858 | 3862.72625963083 | -4.72625963082919 |
| 33 | 3866 | 3870.00221307638 | -4.00221307637639 |
| 34 | 3872 | 3877.38908793843 | -5.38908793842711 |
| 35 | 3878 | 3882.56349839019 | -4.5634983901914 |
| 36 | 3884 | 3887.8643862923 | -3.86438629230406 |
| 37 | 3920 | 3893.27237573881 | 26.7276242611924 |
| 38 | 3932 | 3933.36695491275 | -1.36695491274668 |
| 39 | 3946 | 3945.15754216948 | 0.842457830516651 |
| 40 | 3962 | 3959.28660378207 | 2.71339621793004 |
| 41 | 3976 | 3975.70228665519 | 0.297713344809381 |
| 42 | 3994 | 3989.74789530524 | 4.25210469476451 |
| 43 | 4012 | 4008.39930297089 | 3.6006970291055 |
| 44 | 4042 | 4026.95091724544 | 15.0490827545646 |
| 45 | 4062 | 4059.25638443667 | 2.74361556333361 |
| 46 | 4084 | 4079.67669680851 | 4.3233031914915 |
| 47 | 4106 | 4102.33901183649 | 3.66098816350768 |
| 48 | 4128 | 4124.89986250335 | 3.10013749665268 |
| 49 | 4132 | 4147.37479279667 | -15.3747927966688 |
| 50 | 4146 | 4149.01942795864 | -3.01942795863943 |
| 51 | 4154 | 4162.55686208612 | -8.55686208612315 |
| 52 | 4190 | 4169.24598054462 | 20.7540194553758 |
| 53 | 4134 | 4208.4254242171 | -74.4254242170982 |
| 54 | 4160 | 4141.0237078119 | 18.9762921881038 |
| 55 | 4174 | 4169.93080984359 | 4.06919015641233 |
| 56 | 4182 | 4184.55419563749 | -2.55419563749183 |
| 57 | 4224 | 4192.16290174017 | 31.8370982598344 |
| 58 | 4290 | 4239.04023457826 | 50.9597654217396 |
| 59 | 4330 | 4312.84709358547 | 17.1529064145343 |
| 60 | 4370 | 4355.47485925185 | 14.5251407481537 |
| 61 | 4398 | 4397.70006034809 | 0.299939651912609 |
| 62 | 4426 | 4425.74601006065 | 0.253989939354142 |
| 63 | 4458 | 4453.78492043689 | 4.21507956311234 |
| 64 | 4492 | 4486.43065598102 | 5.56934401898161 |
| 65 | 4528 | 4521.28386013451 | 6.71613986548982 |
| 66 | 4576 | 4558.31274942724 | 17.6872505727579 |
| 67 | 4624 | 4609.02237476213 | 14.9776252378706 |
| 68 | 4672 | 4659.31689491008 | 12.6831050899245 |
| 69 | 4720 | 4709.25990254347 | 10.7400974565262 |
| 70 | 4764 | 4758.90524815825 | 5.0947518417488 |
| 71 | 4808 | 4803.68574643912 | 4.31425356087857 |
| 72 | 4848 | 4848.34667509514 | -0.34667509513838 |
| 73 | 4866 | 4888.29356567506 | -22.293565675056 |
| 74 | 4896 | 4902.87826887075 | -6.87826887075062 |
| 75 | 4926 | 4931.82454197772 | -5.82454197771676 |
| 76 | 4958 | 4960.93224238361 | -2.93224238361017 |
| 77 | 4988 | 4992.48303303827 | -4.48303303826924 |
| 78 | 5020 | 5021.79624795273 | -1.79624795272684 |
| 79 | 5052 | 5053.52106900728 | -1.52106900728086 |
| 80 | 5084 | 5085.28804652019 | -1.28804652019153 |
| 81 | 5116 | 5117.09072226851 | -1.09072226850731 |
| 82 | 5150 | 5148.92362740659 | 1.07637259340572 |
| 83 | 5182 | 5183.08852394814 | -1.08852394813857 |
| 84 | 5216 | 5214.92176586127 | 1.07823413873211 |
| 85 | 5342 | 5249.08694758509 | 92.9130524149114 |
| 86 | 5360 | 5389.32090439649 | -29.3209043964916 |
| 87 | 5380 | 5402.82904371596 | -22.8290437159576 |
| 88 | 5404 | 5419.33171353626 | -15.3317135362595 |
| 89 | 5430 | 5440.98294829125 | -10.9829482912492 |
| 90 | 5458 | 5465.30039877236 | -7.30039877235686 |
| 91 | 5490 | 5492.18200304505 | -2.18200304505172 |
| 92 | 5524 | 5523.84772775973 | 0.15227224026512 |
| 93 | 5560 | 5557.87105533789 | 2.1289446621131 |
| 94 | 5592 | 5594.19720226328 | -2.19720226328354 |
| 95 | 5626 | 5625.86059851054 | 0.139401489457669 |
| 96 | 5660 | 5659.88195433439 | 0.118045665611135 |
| 97 | 5702 | 5693.90003852022 | 8.09996147977927 |
| 98 | 5742 | 5737.14092447629 | 4.85907552371009 |
| 99 | 5784 | 5777.88531796407 | 6.1146820359254 |
| 100 | 5824 | 5820.82206600703 | 3.17793399296806 |
| 101 | 5866 | 5861.30891445329 | 4.69108554670947 |
| 102 | 5908 | 5904.02757246027 | 3.97242753973387 |
| 103 | 5956 | 5946.63613455749 | 9.36386544251127 |
| 104 | 6002 | 5996.07064620932 | 5.92935379067876 |
| 105 | 6050 | 6042.97900260901 | 7.02099739098685 |
| 106 | 6096 | 6092.05459501545 | 3.9454049845499 |
| 107 | 6140 | 6138.65901735111 | 1.34098264889417 |
| 108 | 6182 | 6182.86445123379 | -0.864451233785076 |
| 109 | 6226 | 6224.73202030823 | 1.26797969176732 |
| 110 | 6268 | 6268.92627039152 | -0.926270391522849 |
| 111 | 6312 | 6310.78436898579 | 1.21563101420998 |
| 112 | 6356 | 6354.97059943356 | 1.02940056644093 |
| 113 | 6398 | 6399.12830002377 | -1.12830002377268 |
| 114 | 6440 | 6440.95544838031 | -0.95544838031401 |
| 115 | 6480 | 6482.80907700807 | -2.80907700807438 |
| 116 | 6520 | 6522.37873617034 | -2.37873617033893 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 117 | 6562.01432205376 | 6532.95808531006 | 6591.07055879746 |
| 118 | 6604.02864410752 | 6559.67753493192 | 6648.37975328312 |
| 119 | 6646.04296616128 | 6587.66577561534 | 6704.42015670722 |
| 120 | 6688.05728821504 | 6615.9010704072 | 6760.21350602288 |
| 121 | 6730.0716102688 | 6644.03371475858 | 6816.10950577903 |
| 122 | 6772.08593232256 | 6671.90847046432 | 6872.26339418081 |
| 123 | 6814.10025437633 | 6699.44790432731 | 6928.75260442534 |
| 124 | 6856.11457643009 | 6726.61144755719 | 6985.61770530299 |
| 125 | 6898.12889848385 | 6753.3779077635 | 7042.87988920419 |
| 126 | 6940.14322053761 | 6779.73699698769 | 7100.54944408753 |
| 127 | 6982.15754259137 | 6805.68485205035 | 7158.63023313239 |
| 128 | 7024.17186464513 | 6831.22150943408 | 7217.12221985618 |
| 129 | 7066.18618669889 | 6856.34941164924 | 7276.02296174854 |
| 130 | 7108.20050875265 | 6881.07249051157 | 7335.32852699373 |
| 131 | 7150.21483080641 | 6905.39558830583 | 7395.03407330699 |
| 132 | 7192.22915286017 | 6929.32408434612 | 7455.13422137423 |
| 133 | 7234.24347491394 | 6952.86365025085 | 7515.62329957702 |
| 134 | 7276.2577969677 | 6976.02008792445 | 7576.49550601094 |
