| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 5884.5 | 5884.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 5879.1 | 5882.67485566278 | -1.48868770475832 | -0.16822830322596 | -0.542736401888107 |
| 3 | 5897.2 | 5890.92767078666 | 4.40717835417052 | 0.0186638537476413 | 1.27295773263424 |
| 4 | 5920.7 | 5912.38545145675 | 13.3353513688099 | 0.0136212193113463 | 1.83548969057939 |
| 5 | 5944.6 | 5938.56870351347 | 19.8669011496527 | -0.0603421691350231 | 1.35653766726398 |
| 6 | 5982.4 | 5974.8153425183 | 28.2408884821008 | -0.150532284437016 | 1.72502172179498 |
| 7 | 6017.4 | 6012.94207550465 | 33.3258377638292 | -0.185025438709435 | 1.03806703261334 |
| 8 | 5980 | 6001.21587052435 | 10.0937422562569 | -0.112248656342543 | -4.72555433658884 |
| 9 | 6087.4 | 6063.22382179289 | 36.8898984133156 | -0.135531894798731 | 5.44656269893503 |
| 10 | 6114.5 | 6110.00243889644 | 41.9961167352432 | -0.134722065611449 | 1.03785744833685 |
| 11 | 6143.2 | 6146.09966672346 | 38.9497430777439 | -0.136033854649463 | -0.619191493349202 |
| 12 | 6173.1 | 6177.0058244399 | 34.7958840471751 | -0.137553991256057 | -0.844282526360053 |
| 13 | 6195.7 | 6203.19895798187 | 30.5975076580072 | -3.6857834522651 | -1.03707942308096 |
| 14 | 6236 | 6235.18305005865 | 31.2491557879793 | 0.373674681151214 | 0.115162031721356 |
| 15 | 6255.2 | 6258.51268245426 | 27.2749375301339 | 0.301615735921117 | -0.819560261036232 |
| 16 | 6282.5 | 6283.34161173645 | 26.0107324198133 | 0.303152929581713 | -0.256500877327233 |
| 17 | 6301.7 | 6303.90659025851 | 23.1968395104918 | 0.322137089958923 | -0.567563449360649 |
| 18 | 6330.9 | 6329.48033154866 | 24.4215481538318 | 0.314611636578495 | 0.24794995810289 |
| 19 | 6350.8 | 6351.56941704248 | 23.2197234116968 | 0.319171951746787 | -0.244034870571418 |
| 20 | 6363 | 6366.53499458546 | 18.9622802614228 | 0.326448457490095 | -0.865259510758992 |
| 21 | 6388.6 | 6387.38842073354 | 19.9384688993048 | 0.326016323335357 | 0.198413330674991 |
| 22 | 6411.5 | 6409.94668141809 | 21.291217263159 | 0.326174506456351 | 0.274943802791859 |
| 23 | 6436.4 | 6434.53083762742 | 22.9916701474135 | 0.326606957679317 | 0.345612947067055 |
| 24 | 6449.2 | 6451.63291163842 | 19.9504032017548 | 0.325972204367961 | -0.61813351733012 |
| 25 | 6473.3 | 6474.59683765559 | 21.4635401237549 | -2.67037848525654 | 0.341496142522388 |
| 26 | 6479.5 | 6483.94512051473 | 15.5867162965701 | 0.0154472272834537 | -1.09551923633897 |
| 27 | 6507.3 | 6504.81850488645 | 18.2657121732418 | 0.0472237543236701 | 0.549719446758172 |
| 28 | 6516.1 | 6518.29350620836 | 15.7905063446472 | 0.0492140852802721 | -0.502503944740291 |
| 29 | 6534.2 | 6534.12964136061 | 15.8140773489269 | 0.0491087606047273 | 0.00476660984218758 |
| 30 | 6540.6 | 6543.52779831424 | 12.5059329786167 | 0.0625687869504055 | -0.670641125275136 |
| 31 | 6542.9 | 6547.03205178228 | 7.86449586277644 | 0.0742264911885154 | -0.942768032424269 |
| 32 | 6562.6 | 6560.09559931399 | 10.5470673859856 | 0.0711920432706379 | 0.545204796092373 |
| 33 | 6577 | 6574.92432319184 | 12.7574059059709 | 0.0705445286602987 | 0.449255433533026 |
| 34 | 6596.6 | 6593.70697038753 | 15.86851389791 | 0.0707854158996704 | 0.632328697319947 |
| 35 | 6612.1 | 6611.24638145994 | 16.7313149608099 | 0.0709306617423432 | 0.175362800702417 |
| 36 | 6626.3 | 6626.78692979857 | 16.1164500318969 | 0.070845719021483 | -0.124970664863618 |
| 37 | 6640.1 | 6641.68613094523 | 15.4995064655608 | -1.02622713606361 | -0.134710189995857 |
| 38 | 6642.4 | 6646.61050734066 | 10.2884822606085 | -0.0563217692500733 | -0.994852059879581 |
| 39 | 6648.7 | 6651.34824548299 | 7.46219194047299 | -0.0812216435453255 | -0.578533085614816 |
| 40 | 6660.8 | 6660.22115751937 | 8.19094233314393 | -0.0816590948181623 | 0.147990592373888 |
| 41 | 6668.2 | 6668.32304124821 | 8.14494210236469 | -0.0815054522368858 | -0.00931424551489548 |
| 42 | 6657.7 | 6663.7135545504 | 1.56628800326007 | -0.0614994720638662 | -1.33452573352918 |
| 43 | 6682.8 | 6677.26797327192 | 7.74972795022298 | -0.0731055041416042 | 1.25618206374024 |
| 44 | 6696.8 | 6693.09541301513 | 11.9183256060501 | -0.0766291724451549 | 0.84723461839878 |
| 45 | 6714.4 | 6711.45890886703 | 15.24568936571 | -0.0773575724661649 | 0.676290932710293 |
| 46 | 6728.2 | 6727.77564734536 | 15.7987150150993 | -0.0773255743534097 | 0.112401865712826 |
| 47 | 6741.8 | 6742.41871980078 | 15.2019895266788 | -0.077400641329477 | -0.121283601232 |
| 48 | 6758.4 | 6758.20410275429 | 15.5032254116085 | -0.0773695431881859 | 0.0612259263499983 |
| 49 | 6774 | 6773.36143307827 | 15.327095578734 | 0.798395244653899 | -0.037803164125359 |
| 50 | 6792.3 | 6791.28458540758 | 16.6184092468803 | -0.0431078199675728 | 0.24988656717999 |
| 51 | 6809.1 | 6808.74819257994 | 17.0499834244564 | -0.0400787158843443 | 0.0882144466491761 |
| 52 | 6832.2 | 6830.18641853528 | 19.3166354708164 | -0.0411641770206184 | 0.46037938771529 |
| 53 | 6850.3 | 6850.074981663 | 19.612023233384 | -0.0419518743184404 | 0.0598565545381441 |
| 54 | 6861.1 | 6863.85722732039 | 16.6044384291799 | -0.034650019168643 | -0.610347607927901 |
| 55 | 6882.6 | 6881.94295895559 | 17.3686420091205 | -0.0357950430702941 | 0.155264903488891 |
| 56 | 6900.7 | 6900.28188391386 | 17.869419087219 | -0.0361329457378974 | 0.101779742841654 |
| 57 | 6915.1 | 6916.0977203752 | 16.8092152899626 | -0.0359476767899226 | -0.215487401537142 |
| 58 | 6947.8 | 6943.07365364409 | 22.0586656009566 | -0.0357052186654381 | 1.06694574863078 |
| 59 | 6965.9 | 6965.67941344004 | 22.3411583277879 | -0.0356768508202618 | 0.057416297013929 |
| 60 | 6991.7 | 6990.55052721353 | 23.6474896444414 | -0.0355691978868062 | 0.265510790632195 |
| 61 | 6993.9 | 7001.14668362016 | 16.9831956969208 | -1.19958804486856 | -1.4153892259362 |
| 62 | 7031.7 | 7027.5615326199 | 21.7040316526934 | 0.198484805414614 | 0.921545400804503 |
| 63 | 7048.7 | 7048.74489065853 | 21.4376662108775 | 0.19693953785816 | -0.0543935083037699 |
| 64 | 7067.4 | 7068.15300700838 | 20.3894160105795 | 0.197357086091663 | -0.212934581865157 |
| 65 | 7077.1 | 7080.60212227387 | 16.2886346893524 | 0.206457687213906 | -0.831392242274033 |
| 66 | 7107.4 | 7103.91761916145 | 19.9142944210689 | 0.199132412149919 | 0.735968038819943 |
| 67 | 7127.1 | 7125.92363380467 | 20.993566647031 | 0.197786765461134 | 0.219292100394958 |
| 68 | 7137.3 | 7140.23082813783 | 17.5423986257897 | 0.199724531824561 | -0.701431285961629 |
| 69 | 7147.9 | 7150.91281276699 | 14.000509233069 | 0.200239567684134 | -0.719891462262892 |
| 70 | 7170.6 | 7168.64962375281 | 15.9296908394323 | 0.20031371321329 | 0.392104471432454 |
| 71 | 7193 | 7190.17731634658 | 18.8201995157351 | 0.200555249912466 | 0.587492681978006 |
| 72 | 7220.1 | 7216.42169038858 | 22.6536116192988 | 0.200818124067919 | 0.779138143858731 |
| 73 | 7251 | 7248.10188166748 | 27.2713412864656 | -1.29177057006284 | 0.973775470282014 |
| 74 | 7268.1 | 7270.21592960484 | 24.6784282754488 | 0.0754471571665244 | -0.509248420701142 |
| 75 | 7282.2 | 7286.19303379734 | 20.2210731974591 | 0.053273994561823 | -0.909602028626357 |
| 76 | 7290.2 | 7295.33357676613 | 14.4983186378091 | 0.0552252955731441 | -1.16257807197487 |
| 77 | 7292.5 | 7297.97381071583 | 8.37440986381127 | 0.0668630737581205 | -1.24200939631319 |
| 78 | 7299.6 | 7301.70108838153 | 5.97638772660589 | 0.0710118239967455 | -0.486861328799956 |
| 79 | 7305.1 | 7305.87254573417 | 5.04500073807892 | 0.0720061715369692 | -0.189252632188256 |
| 80 | 7306.9 | 7308.13170512997 | 3.60702038791042 | 0.0726975115543328 | -0.292262767615983 |
| 81 | 7313.3 | 7312.75254365238 | 4.13044009152174 | 0.0726323401913447 | 0.106385328428981 |
| 82 | 7325.6 | 7322.76988442778 | 7.17004079021258 | 0.0727323706237609 | 0.617796355865477 |
| 83 | 7348.1 | 7342.25732340718 | 13.5300455022538 | 0.0731874328797236 | 1.29266448545394 |
| 84 | 7354.7 | 7354.99703023283 | 13.1219626522026 | 0.0731634713058041 | -0.0829425503479435 |
| 85 | 7375.3 | 7373.26483803897 | 15.7579126729115 | -0.356489344378036 | 0.553016366169111 |
| 86 | 7396.3 | 7394.06288676202 | 18.3003948361197 | 0.0683488105518777 | 0.50159180222468 |
| 87 | 7401.9 | 7405.18754864078 | 14.6208734006517 | 0.0523629325600991 | -0.75049028393372 |
| 88 | 7390.4 | 7399.74168413105 | 4.25738648643148 | 0.0554518140733809 | -2.10547295968616 |
| 89 | 7393.6 | 7396.87033910864 | 0.575971106405614 | 0.0615690190022927 | -0.74684136587044 |
| 90 | 7398.5 | 7398.1227182921 | 0.925038119287982 | 0.0610409851194604 | 0.0708795453446833 |
| 91 | 7392.4 | 7394.47614690668 | -1.43419315259656 | 0.0632431663902274 | -0.479398954564918 |
| 92 | 7390.8 | 7391.47168693941 | -2.24475426735168 | 0.0635838848261635 | -0.16474317751371 |
| 93 | 7380.6 | 7383.30817261573 | -5.30055298952283 | 0.0639165468974859 | -0.621092306075402 |
| 94 | 7365.8 | 7369.65057898432 | -9.61555831471403 | 0.0637923907922004 | -0.877021490818549 |
| 95 | 7346.9 | 7351.04664781191 | -14.2566211287748 | 0.0635020535820997 | -0.943291612454033 |
| 96 | 7334.1 | 7334.91486702897 | -15.2248358682738 | 0.0634523473712818 | -0.196788989064353 |
| 97 | 7314.8 | 7316.9705122904 | -16.6192880007255 | -0.905326417121648 | -0.291420686903966 |
| 98 | 7287.8 | 7291.58308441674 | -21.0538377260246 | 0.0266727195096943 | -0.877891237361862 |
| 99 | 7274.3 | 7273.08013967172 | -19.7447964490809 | 0.0317207088244192 | 0.266892326809111 |
| 100 | 7252.7 | 7252.88099187834 | -19.9794401745307 | 0.0317828265718726 | -0.0476731099508374 |
| 101 | 7257.5 | 7249.65071273792 | -11.3300276383992 | 0.0190146048379465 | 1.7550573182671 |
| 102 | 7256.5 | 7250.70047332937 | -4.94095254583432 | 0.010428614111672 | 1.29746819853981 |
| 103 | 7253.9 | 7251.29924543395 | -2.08195242946683 | 0.00805786814723411 | 0.580968034696474 |
| 104 | 7262.6 | 7258.32766370396 | 2.62089172967044 | 0.00630174024691215 | 0.955835462917212 |
| 105 | 7263.6 | 7262.75004379594 | 3.55098944497546 | 0.00621179185729076 | 0.189042640397651 |
| 106 | 7261.3 | 7262.89104295958 | 1.79030639813978 | 0.00616678761854296 | -0.357857525318366 |
| 107 | 7250.4 | 7254.95153678452 | -3.23357315132112 | 0.00588759066010965 | -1.02109901839047 |
| 108 | 7249.3 | 7250.06731033946 | -4.08586435537939 | 0.00584872077248591 | -0.173227628782237 |
| 109 | 7245.6 | 7245.77463873017 | -4.19198806046747 | -0.0783544503266148 | -0.0221111940049971 |
| 110 | 7244.4 | 7243.52935561541 | -3.20538450045632 | 0.0182474781610729 | 0.19584897463446 |
| 111 | 7253.8 | 7249.49254373263 | 1.50255747649003 | 0.0345663230098739 | 0.959571527908619 |
| 112 | 7271.6 | 7265.0057805839 | 8.73802733357781 | 0.0328434752526069 | 1.47010336827162 |
| 113 | 7282.7 | 7279.8269196362 | 11.8793470807121 | 0.0286718521290525 | 0.637513918469012 |
| 114 | 7283 | 7285.75229392284 | 8.80642601116634 | 0.0323867600408096 | -0.624090231371903 |
| 115 | 7293.3 | 7293.67902220431 | 8.35240167808762 | 0.0327254367351543 | -0.092262747314652 |
| 116 | 7291.2 | 7294.63128329218 | 4.53230565212047 | 0.0340086625942506 | -0.776421466680311 |
| 117 | 7298.5 | 7298.6884888997 | 4.28701292597081 | 0.0340300020466184 | -0.0498558013417827 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 7306.37107469614 | 7304.55043370557 | 1.82064099056835 |
| 2 | 7310.81560456457 | 7308.70884036906 | 2.10676419550738 |
| 3 | 7315.69701253179 | 7312.86724703256 | 2.82976549923144 |
| 4 | 7319.86765822519 | 7317.02565369606 | 2.84200452913467 |
| 5 | 7322.55903417423 | 7321.18406035955 | 1.37497381467398 |
| 6 | 7326.46359982111 | 7325.34246702305 | 1.12113279805517 |
| 7 | 7328.98135485081 | 7329.50087368655 | -0.51951883574232 |
| 8 | 7332.73229875171 | 7333.65928035005 | -0.926981598331807 |
| 9 | 7336.30643136622 | 7337.81768701354 | -1.51125564732604 |
| 10 | 7341.4837524632 | 7341.97609367704 | -0.492341213835873 |
| 11 | 7338.03426260697 | 7346.13450034054 | -8.10023773356236 |
| 12 | 7349.74796020566 | 7350.29290700403 | -0.544946798372596 |
| 13 | 7356.2719546581 | 7354.45131366753 | 1.82064099056835 |
| 14 | 7360.71648452653 | 7358.60972033103 | 2.10676419550738 |
| 15 | 7365.59789249375 | 7362.76812699452 | 2.82976549923144 |
| 16 | 7369.76853818716 | 7366.92653365802 | 2.84200452913467 |
| 17 | 7372.45991413619 | 7371.08494032152 | 1.37497381467398 |
| 18 | 7376.36447978307 | 7375.24334698501 | 1.12113279805517 |
