Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 2176.85 | 2176.85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 1899.95 | 2101.3050372868 | -0.922842647670858 | -157.068577510493 | -0.810943761398599 |
3 | 2604 | 2263.38086479076 | 13.0947496699948 | 298.103852397987 | 0.959663991164835 |
4 | 2561.65 | 2409.0444071078 | 24.3773876747626 | 115.42418214139 | 0.857544706273096 |
5 | 2382.5 | 2436.64888016236 | 24.6129041749456 | -55.2348488914238 | 0.0240356746062385 |
6 | 2155.35 | 2359.55361470981 | 18.3641134688095 | -166.29313185146 | -0.815565812208471 |
7 | 2738.6 | 2456.32138609214 | 22.610043957319 | 251.776622785849 | 0.647121308409489 |
8 | 2704.25 | 2562.29437725381 | 26.8461835807387 | 109.066587869785 | 0.693718874636845 |
9 | 2540 | 2589.51670507166 | 26.8649993001173 | -49.6653590140354 | 0.00312951061329822 |
10 | 2251 | 2496.77412022597 | 20.8191305004292 | -198.652519300631 | -0.991848397039675 |
11 | 2982.25 | 2621.31871526935 | 26.1718063784553 | 320.259113762751 | 0.856549710001564 |
12 | 3074.85 | 2800.94646771263 | 34.2706513520407 | 214.026385718058 | 1.26193909391012 |
13 | 2951.25 | 2934.44991784845 | 35.901011485174 | -23.4462198092957 | 0.88858835683742 |
14 | 1105.75 | 2557.77355615083 | 20.4980944750782 | -1293.25637423553 | -3.4866531685923 |
15 | 2595.05 | 2394.79511338074 | 10.2229237951901 | 262.665590339032 | -1.40029979581461 |
16 | 2667 | 2391.68801332277 | 9.3759743959728 | 279.631291768433 | -0.0988197588070324 |
17 | 2475.2 | 2419.422532368 | 10.5624477238121 | 49.7258084818668 | 0.138880951241335 |
18 | 2015.55 | 2377.35378047096 | 7.24414381062075 | -343.890001834225 | -0.409054385999705 |
19 | 2988.2 | 2490.80873974484 | 13.7169769055887 | 460.409634293324 | 0.839797353894734 |
20 | 3361.25 | 2747.925233579 | 28.1345125309028 | 527.623106474456 | 1.93887126194352 |
21 | 2861.2 | 2868.08797274296 | 33.4782486147509 | -39.4118183718333 | 0.734237156177837 |
22 | 2427.35 | 2880.46779637429 | 32.2715974815494 | -445.662547432189 | -0.168104578649171 |
23 | 3411.9 | 2991.47222515136 | 36.6967121900754 | 392.65876916867 | 0.625758138632054 |
24 | 3404.5 | 3077.05552354089 | 39.3703242246898 | 310.220167104349 | 0.388341371743321 |
25 | 3406.2 | 3119.10552366771 | 39.5107248803775 | 286.143847288161 | 0.0215192019107199 |
26 | 2679.3 | 3362.6283062055 | 50.6775929632509 | -755.336331538477 | 1.6292273219842 |
27 | 3677.2 | 3462.80282807867 | 53.5620932400038 | 197.376696554473 | 0.386311398570018 |
28 | 3815.35 | 3540.49827897178 | 55.0262077559148 | 266.725661713388 | 0.185518592953995 |
29 | 3422.85 | 3542.91651604259 | 51.7843019197802 | -102.401072191495 | -0.404718002275196 |
30 | 2925.85 | 3531.91780998052 | 47.9160013349989 | -584.802340812326 | -0.487240370724945 |
31 | 3827.5 | 3558.98678776866 | 46.641540256511 | 275.643322601643 | -0.163098790757439 |
32 | 4319.65 | 3675.76855046641 | 50.8856554269644 | 619.753321343551 | 0.550929337836712 |
33 | 4004.85 | 3842.87539956653 | 57.8461568363362 | 121.935345500517 | 0.913093160722082 |
34 | 3109.2 | 3847.84491238171 | 54.7096536821838 | -720.450545743795 | -0.414703142520118 |
35 | 4137.35 | 3862.28005686402 | 52.3416175631935 | 288.902725663542 | -0.315357463728852 |
36 | 4847.6 | 4114.42995481676 | 64.0069814926734 | 664.558906330152 | 1.56546976061189 |
Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
1 | 4149.11186629151 | 4101.46556933023 | 47.6462969612828 |
2 | 3370.47103387869 | 4160.66584553625 | -790.194811657557 |
3 | 4374.08380262447 | 4219.86612174228 | 154.217680882191 |
4 | 4526.83040660343 | 4279.0663979483 | 247.764008655131 |
5 | 4190.96300726289 | 4338.26667415433 | -147.303666891435 |
6 | 3725.13459782011 | 4397.46695036035 | -672.332352540243 |
7 | 4619.65102629958 | 4456.66722656637 | 162.983799733204 |
8 | 5070.64881196425 | 4515.8675027724 | 554.781309191852 |
9 | 4747.46598619394 | 4575.06777897842 | 172.398207215512 |
10 | 3923.60318245858 | 4634.26805518445 | -710.664872725867 |
11 | 4918.80501912064 | 4693.46833139047 | 225.336687730168 |
12 | 5508.03632104226 | 4752.6686075965 | 755.367713445761 |