| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.221394872467023 |
| beta | 0.121706789645633 |
| gamma | 0.409824035408748 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 5329.6 | 5395.91685363248 | -66.3168536324774 |
| 14 | 5345.7 | 5392.3225572151 | -46.6225572150952 |
| 15 | 5353.8 | 5372.20305348728 | -18.4030534872791 |
| 16 | 5377.2 | 5393.13532814259 | -15.9353281425947 |
| 17 | 5334.1 | 5355.95122965576 | -21.8512296557547 |
| 18 | 5351.1 | 5377.47276052825 | -26.3727605282475 |
| 19 | 5001 | 5309.29512678235 | -308.295126782354 |
| 20 | 5246.4 | 4787.09423462143 | 459.305765378573 |
| 21 | 5230 | 5268.67485697334 | -38.6748569733445 |
| 22 | 5115.8 | 5218.34218557069 | -102.542185570693 |
| 23 | 4972.6 | 5165.54408933216 | -192.944089332161 |
| 24 | 5077.6 | 5107.77421331349 | -30.1742133134921 |
| 25 | 5056.9 | 5075.54158377329 | -18.641583773293 |
| 26 | 5070.7 | 5079.0553090554 | -8.35530905540327 |
| 27 | 4799.3 | 5067.71237792104 | -268.412377921035 |
| 28 | 5076 | 5018.64454093134 | 57.3554590686608 |
| 29 | 5021.5 | 4982.33701636491 | 39.1629836350858 |
| 30 | 5026.4 | 5004.10612568574 | 22.2938743142631 |
| 31 | 4981.9 | 4846.23757850673 | 135.662421493265 |
| 32 | 4936.6 | 4668.71723160797 | 267.882768392033 |
| 33 | 4901.8 | 4945.31467044284 | -43.5146704428389 |
| 34 | 4853.8 | 4869.69865202664 | -15.8986520266426 |
| 35 | 4839.2 | 4805.73883853249 | 33.4611614675077 |
| 36 | 4821.3 | 4854.63518150962 | -33.335181509623 |
| 37 | 4840.5 | 4829.90035544327 | 10.5996445567343 |
| 38 | 4847.6 | 4848.47577611719 | -0.875776117186433 |
| 39 | 4832.3 | 4761.31399692606 | 70.9860030739374 |
| 40 | 4814.7 | 4905.98913114891 | -91.2891311489075 |
| 41 | 4806.4 | 4841.61442656711 | -35.2144265671068 |
| 42 | 4803.4 | 4850.17688446858 | -46.7768844685797 |
| 43 | 4770.3 | 4719.9730982569 | 50.326901743103 |
| 44 | 4723.4 | 4570.23263137114 | 153.167368628856 |
| 45 | 4667.1 | 4723.45987408388 | -56.3598740838843 |
| 46 | 4636.8 | 4654.85725669748 | -18.0572566974843 |
| 47 | 4613.2 | 4607.15688967555 | 6.04311032445094 |
| 48 | 4605.3 | 4628.91718549984 | -23.6171854998438 |
| 49 | 4590.4 | 4620.86322664518 | -30.4632266451827 |
| 50 | 4595.4 | 4626.08952487754 | -30.6895248775436 |
| 51 | 4600.1 | 4553.85794047474 | 46.2420595252624 |
| 52 | 4543.3 | 4639.2079622279 | -95.907962227896 |
| 53 | 4596.4 | 4589.5127755194 | 6.88722448060162 |
| 54 | 4575.4 | 4602.65045011173 | -27.2504501117346 |
| 55 | 4547.9 | 4507.22441906741 | 40.6755809325869 |
| 56 | 4503.7 | 4387.37236834427 | 116.327631655729 |
| 57 | 4446.3 | 4463.80224042068 | -17.5022404206784 |
| 58 | 4401.4 | 4415.28859264677 | -13.8885926467656 |
| 59 | 4354.3 | 4375.57774934189 | -21.2777493418862 |
| 60 | 4336.3 | 4380.4652333567 | -44.1652333566999 |
| 61 | 4300.9 | 4363.76408153961 | -62.8640815396066 |
| 62 | 4304.1 | 4358.95828769163 | -54.858287691628 |
| 63 | 4273.2 | 4302.48631389222 | -29.286313892223 |
| 64 | 4279.9 | 4320.28307053216 | -40.3830705321643 |
| 65 | 4243.1 | 4311.70510709393 | -68.6051070939257 |
| 66 | 4199.1 | 4291.2252463772 | -92.1252463772007 |
| 67 | 4177.6 | 4195.35189932802 | -17.7518993280237 |
| 68 | 4141.7 | 4077.37089578834 | 64.3291042116589 |
| 69 | 4088.3 | 4088.8502222353 | -0.550222235296133 |
| 70 | 4021.4 | 4034.96510591014 | -13.5651059101424 |
| 71 | 3981.2 | 3982.69914195856 | -1.49914195856127 |
| 72 | 3937.2 | 3974.92633074247 | -37.726330742466 |
| 73 | 3893.1 | 3944.12159575373 | -51.0215957537339 |
| 74 | 3864.7 | 3935.24885666672 | -70.54885666672 |
| 75 | 3847.8 | 3873.79668563517 | -25.9966856351698 |
| 76 | 3840.8 | 3879.20333791336 | -38.4033379133552 |
| 77 | 3828.4 | 3852.53408601557 | -24.1340860155692 |
| 78 | 3798.6 | 3826.0689069702 | -27.4689069701972 |
| 79 | 3773 | 3761.65828917387 | 11.3417108261265 |
| 80 | 3737.8 | 3670.50998839756 | 67.2900116024398 |
| 81 | 3699 | 3656.22242096016 | 42.7775790398437 |
| 82 | 3674 | 3603.22439476293 | 70.7756052370737 |
| 83 | 3648.8 | 3571.20122635207 | 77.5987736479301 |
| 84 | 3645.6 | 3569.23188145803 | 76.3681185419678 |
| 85 | 3331 | 3562.37034308305 | -231.370343083045 |
| 86 | 3674.7 | 3505.40446851004 | 169.295531489964 |
| 87 | 3714.5 | 3515.79761296369 | 198.702387036305 |
| 88 | 3739.7 | 3577.57600696554 | 162.123993034462 |
| 89 | 3759.7 | 3615.84230150175 | 143.857698498245 |
| 90 | 3708.6 | 3646.01874502028 | 62.5812549797247 |
| 91 | 3717.3 | 3636.86853336794 | 80.4314666320638 |
| 92 | 3705.3 | 3603.67023570076 | 101.629764299237 |
| 93 | 3612.8 | 3614.89018886802 | -2.09018886801778 |
| 94 | 3665 | 3585.4101905213 | 79.5898094787021 |
| 95 | 3670.8 | 3582.2707557914 | 88.5292442086002 |
| 96 | 3687.6 | 3607.37829608448 | 80.2217039155212 |
| 97 | 3708.2 | 3528.3267809426 | 179.873219057404 |
| 98 | 3737.2 | 3726.49156151004 | 10.7084384899626 |
| 99 | 3748.7 | 3743.11915851748 | 5.58084148251783 |
| 100 | 3785.3 | 3777.22723870197 | 8.07276129802858 |
| 101 | 3787.1 | 3798.16546407752 | -11.0654640775228 |
| 102 | 3785.8 | 3786.54037519378 | -0.740375193780892 |
| 103 | 3749.7 | 3785.79295596434 | -36.0929559643437 |
| 104 | 3716.3 | 3747.14718894381 | -30.8471889438074 |
| 105 | 3650 | 3705.95793694156 | -55.9579369415637 |
| 106 | 3096.9 | 3699.18040155318 | -602.28040155318 |
| 107 | 3703.2 | 3538.12286890682 | 165.077131093185 |
| 108 | 3716 | 3569.78143584785 | 146.218564152154 |
| 109 | 3736.9 | 3531.1720799107 | 205.727920089303 |
| 110 | 3771.9 | 3675.81152683801 | 96.0884731619917 |
| 111 | 3704 | 3706.73578559868 | -2.73578559867792 |
| 112 | 3824.2 | 3736.60379335393 | 87.5962066460716 |
| 113 | 3733.5 | 3767.99008105664 | -34.4900810566414 |
| 114 | 3827.5 | 3752.79118021471 | 74.7088197852927 |
| 115 | 3827.6 | 3757.81776448564 | 69.7822355143612 |
| 116 | 3696.5 | 3747.48956632075 | -50.9895663207508 |
| 117 | 3675.8 | 3696.48900438163 | -20.6890043816297 |
| 118 | 3757.5 | 3526.80425191518 | 230.69574808482 |
| 119 | 3753.3 | 3821.0761372895 | -67.7761372895025 |
| 120 | 3418.7 | 3814.94610610784 | -396.246106107842 |
| 121 | 3772.9 | 3680.39143043518 | 92.5085695648195 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 122 | 3767.09366891963 | 3526.02523365614 | 4008.16210418313 |
| 123 | 3744.73530907214 | 3496.34439898914 | 3993.12621915515 |
| 124 | 3803.63167416286 | 3546.52850161419 | 4060.73484671152 |
| 125 | 3773.90619518579 | 3506.67900939717 | 4041.1333809744 |
| 126 | 3799.35519408513 | 3520.59469893284 | 4078.11568923743 |
| 127 | 3782.42412680772 | 3490.74354327551 | 4074.10471033992 |
| 128 | 3712.38351980506 | 3406.43384541914 | 4018.33319419097 |
| 129 | 3677.9885798073 | 3356.46918385275 | 3999.50797576186 |
| 130 | 3589.30452734226 | 3250.96962529987 | 3927.63942938464 |
| 131 | 3727.25130392639 | 3370.91306274544 | 4083.58954510735 |
| 132 | 3623.13043323221 | 3247.65950557648 | 3998.60136088794 |
| 133 | 3734.75254588992 | 3339.07677069498 | 4130.42832108486 |
