| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.351729169266056 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.665799833057604 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 4000 | 3876.01612848607 | 123.983871513929 |
| 14 | 3915 | 3833.89302857922 | 81.1069714207779 |
| 15 | 4200 | 4156.94919305811 | 43.0508069418893 |
| 16 | 3900 | 3881.28791784002 | 18.7120821599797 |
| 17 | 4140 | 4135.59536045933 | 4.40463954066945 |
| 18 | 3945 | 3960.7937571001 | -15.7937571000971 |
| 19 | 3735 | 3532.49447061604 | 202.505529383956 |
| 20 | 3970 | 4171.83283816704 | -201.83283816704 |
| 21 | 3745 | 3901.57953422148 | -156.57953422148 |
| 22 | 4140 | 4077.45819212013 | 62.5418078798712 |
| 23 | 3840 | 3987.44004494371 | -147.440044943707 |
| 24 | 3570 | 3710.14540926219 | -140.145409262191 |
| 25 | 4085 | 4087.85231726688 | -2.85231726687925 |
| 26 | 3865 | 3978.89462126631 | -113.89462126631 |
| 27 | 4280 | 4219.63880697846 | 60.361193021542 |
| 28 | 4280 | 3935.74540066029 | 344.254599339709 |
| 29 | 4240 | 4307.65183443428 | -67.6518344342812 |
| 30 | 4065 | 4091.73672800286 | -26.7367280028579 |
| 31 | 4060 | 3740.38154079091 | 319.618459209093 |
| 32 | 4265 | 4261.34454176537 | 3.65545823462617 |
| 33 | 4085 | 4069.7663972709 | 15.2336027290994 |
| 34 | 4450 | 4424.70066101013 | 25.2993389898693 |
| 35 | 4195 | 4213.78613585889 | -18.7861358588862 |
| 36 | 4160 | 3963.47222840476 | 196.527771595241 |
| 37 | 4580 | 4575.2122234912 | 4.7877765088042 |
| 38 | 4130 | 4399.77237286694 | -269.772372866942 |
| 39 | 4645 | 4696.89176092557 | -51.8917609255686 |
| 40 | 4375 | 4471.95931116096 | -96.9593111609602 |
| 41 | 4480 | 4513.82312611059 | -33.8231261105875 |
| 42 | 4485 | 4316.36093098051 | 168.639069019487 |
| 43 | 4465 | 4163.33154145928 | 301.668458540716 |
| 44 | 4515 | 4559.47409939052 | -44.4740993905161 |
| 45 | 4465 | 4342.61951028774 | 122.380489712263 |
| 46 | 4790 | 4764.66793860025 | 25.332061399753 |
| 47 | 4270 | 4515.86846641795 | -245.868466417946 |
| 48 | 4495 | 4267.97954628254 | 227.020453717459 |
| 49 | 4490 | 4832.47687891007 | -342.476878910066 |
| 50 | 4275 | 4404.70173935622 | -129.701739356222 |
| 51 | 4695 | 4864.12976166371 | -169.129761663713 |
| 52 | 4630 | 4570.44389785959 | 59.5561021404137 |
| 53 | 4560 | 4698.40824193507 | -138.40824193507 |
| 54 | 4665 | 4546.37747339556 | 118.622526604442 |
| 55 | 4725 | 4424.47821239204 | 300.521787607958 |
| 56 | 4840 | 4674.43945213124 | 165.560547868758 |
| 57 | 4745 | 4596.27377174809 | 148.726228251909 |
| 58 | 4940 | 5000.84071734696 | -60.8407173469614 |
| 59 | 4635 | 4586.62241419454 | 48.3775858054551 |
| 60 | 4910 | 4646.18132207734 | 263.818677922655 |
| 61 | 4690 | 4988.4624333782 | -298.462433378201 |
| 62 | 4585 | 4651.22321861682 | -66.2232186168176 |
| 63 | 5065 | 5150.53314665477 | -85.5331466547714 |
| 64 | 4705 | 4972.33020625996 | -267.330206259959 |
| 65 | 4580 | 4899.49291889765 | -319.492918897654 |
| 66 | 4660 | 4793.83646187382 | -133.836461873819 |
| 67 | 4510 | 4656.20732976189 | -146.207329761888 |
| 68 | 4885 | 4689.09775546469 | 195.902244535306 |
| 69 | 4765 | 4615.15488919158 | 149.845110808422 |
| 70 | 4700 | 4927.21482879814 | -227.214828798139 |
| 71 | 4590 | 4509.26427635025 | 80.7357236497528 |
| 72 | 4655 | 4668.75835800398 | -13.7583580039773 |
| 73 | 4845 | 4668.40832439068 | 176.591675609324 |
| 74 | 4495 | 4599.103557134 | -104.103557133997 |
| 75 | 5020 | 5072.55528183796 | -52.555281837962 |
| 76 | 4535 | 4826.68064058583 | -291.680640585833 |
| 77 | 4700 | 4719.69591728389 | -19.695917283886 |
| 78 | 4435 | 4800.00200825625 | -365.002008256252 |
| 79 | 4285 | 4575.4382010134 | -290.438201013396 |
| 80 | 4780 | 4700.81209792144 | 79.1879020785645 |
| 81 | 4450 | 4569.43171916676 | -119.431719166759 |
| 82 | 4875 | 4619.00979443679 | 255.990205563215 |
| 83 | 4670 | 4505.58500550993 | 164.414994490066 |
| 84 | 4325 | 4653.5719605814 | -328.571960581396 |
| 85 | 5000 | 4621.85995186626 | 378.140048133743 |
| 86 | 4675 | 4504.82589664323 | 170.17410335677 |
| 87 | 4950 | 5102.29058075797 | -152.290580757966 |
| 88 | 4790 | 4714.1879755583 | 75.8120244417005 |
| 89 | 4785 | 4856.84774906327 | -71.8477490632749 |
| 90 | 4520 | 4763.22212428799 | -243.22212428799 |
| 91 | 4735 | 4607.82555880105 | 127.17444119895 |
| 92 | 5055 | 5065.34541684974 | -10.3454168497383 |
| 93 | 4640 | 4799.86574256015 | -159.86574256015 |
| 94 | 5045 | 5009.19077774318 | 35.8092222568175 |
| 95 | 4710 | 4766.99624766847 | -56.9962476684659 |
| 96 | 4650 | 4617.27223852502 | 32.7277614749828 |
| 97 | 4915 | 5032.55611568591 | -117.556115685908 |
| 98 | 4260 | 4645.14887598692 | -385.148875986917 |
| 99 | 4505 | 4896.85985247558 | -391.859852475579 |
| 100 | 4575 | 4534.0966042492 | 40.9033957507982 |
| 101 | 4785 | 4598.88156626667 | 186.118433733332 |
| 102 | 4610 | 4524.63424227624 | 85.3657577237582 |
| 103 | 5220 | 4643.86301589759 | 576.136984102414 |
| 104 | 5285 | 5209.87925186239 | 75.1207481376068 |
| 105 | 4870 | 4896.96561516871 | -26.9656151687141 |
| 106 | 5440 | 5252.62220587071 | 187.37779412929 |
| 107 | 4615 | 5006.2258607207 | -391.225860720703 |
| 108 | 4645 | 4774.33853690994 | -129.338536909944 |
| 109 | 4845 | 5073.29288655618 | -228.292886556175 |
| 110 | 4780 | 4521.32583397355 | 258.674166026452 |
| 111 | 5005 | 5014.17813128926 | -9.17813128925991 |
| 112 | 4905 | 4967.77984093022 | -62.7798409302222 |
| 113 | 4630 | 5065.5979660062 | -435.5979660062 |
| 114 | 4785 | 4721.90955993167 | 63.0904400683303 |
| 115 | 5160 | 5043.84114210547 | 116.158857894528 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 116 | 5231.39069868938 | 4937.65440296786 | 5525.1269944109 |
| 117 | 4850.79794722488 | 4532.77203624278 | 5168.82385820698 |
| 118 | 5305.19376680964 | 4952.18793859811 | 5658.19959502117 |
| 119 | 4748.53838112567 | 4387.09565624493 | 5109.98110600641 |
| 120 | 4766.78572377513 | 4381.93044558012 | 5151.64100197013 |
| 121 | 5072.63483477529 | 4653.79121250382 | 5491.47845704675 |
| 122 | 4798.79199294098 | 4373.31991685211 | 5224.26406902985 |
| 123 | 5089.32757926221 | 4629.313704449 | 5549.34145407542 |
| 124 | 5021.54769010471 | 4547.88694406713 | 5495.20843614228 |
| 125 | 4973.35905485546 | 4485.69053356937 | 5461.02757614156 |
| 126 | 4998.47030135048 | 4492.64849845287 | 5504.29210424809 |
| 127 | 5335.25887202242 | 4874.78718089756 | 5795.73056314729 |
| 128 | 5434.92246080681 | 4823.74655105032 | 6046.0983705633 |
| 129 | 5038.9125238166 | 4441.78081972977 | 5636.04422790342 |
| 130 | 5510.26714148927 | 4865.91583112089 | 6154.61845185765 |
| 131 | 4931.50474186417 | 4318.31951896926 | 5544.68996475908 |
| 132 | 4949.86731341549 | 4322.41914538531 | 5577.31548144568 |
| 133 | 5266.84181741213 | 4601.15853254711 | 5932.52510227714 |
