Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[38])
34	9983.40000000001	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	9913.40000000001	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	10031.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	10184.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	10125	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	10065.4	10057.5668	10003.253	10112.1754	0.3893	0.0078	1	0.0078
40	10188.6	10173.3717	10111.9708	10235.1455	0.3145	0.9997	1	0.9376
41	10350.4	10327.7829	10264.1349	10391.8257	0.2444	1	1	1
42	10320.6	10274.44	10204.8971	10344.4569	0.0981	0.0167	1	1
43	10232.6	10203.354	10071.8051	10336.6211	0.3336	0.0423	0.9788	0.8754
44	10357.2	10318.4743	10171.1077	10467.976	0.3058	0.8699	0.9557	0.9944
45	10520.2	10476.9401	10321.1793	10635.0516	0.2959	0.9311	0.9416	1
46	10473.8	10423.5678	10253.2083	10596.7578	0.2849	0.1371	0.878	0.9996
47	10407	10350.3066	10121.3885	10584.4023	0.3175	0.1506	0.8378	0.9704
48	10536	10467.0497	10215.0029	10725.3155	0.3004	0.6757	0.7978	0.9953
49	10700.2	10628.3862	10359.7554	10903.9827	0.3048	0.7444	0.7792	0.9998
50	10664.2	10574.098	10284.5124	10871.8377	0.2765	0.2032	0.7455	0.9984
51	10606	10499.529	10152.9244	10857.9661	0.2802	0.1839	0.6936	0.9797
52	10716.6	10618.0982	10241.3438	11008.7124	0.3106	0.5242	0.6598	0.9933
53	10882.8	10781.8498	10380.4667	11198.7532	0.3175	0.6205	0.6495	0.999
54	10849.4	10726.6818	10299.6454	11171.4236	0.2943	0.2457	0.6085	0.996
55	10794	10651.0207	10167.3029	11157.7519	0.2901	0.2214	0.5691	0.9791
56	10907.8	10771.3531	10250.9685	11318.1547	0.3124	0.4677	0.5778	0.9897

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
39	0.0028	8e-04	8e-04	8e-04	61.3596	0	0	0.0797	0.0797
40	0.0031	0.0015	0.0011	0.0011	231.8999	146.6297	12.1091	0.155	0.1174
41	0.0032	0.0022	0.0015	0.0015	511.5315	268.2637	16.3788	0.2302	0.155
42	0.0035	0.0045	0.0022	0.0022	2130.7446	733.8839	27.0903	0.4698	0.2337
43	0.0067	0.0029	0.0024	0.0024	855.3285	758.1728	27.5349	0.2976	0.2465
44	0.0074	0.0037	0.0026	0.0026	1499.6821	881.7577	29.6944	0.3941	0.2711
45	0.0077	0.0041	0.0028	0.0028	1871.4192	1023.1379	31.9865	0.4403	0.2952
46	0.0085	0.0048	0.0031	0.0031	2523.2751	1210.655	34.7945	0.5112	0.3222
47	0.0115	0.0054	0.0033	0.0033	3214.1401	1433.2645	37.8585	0.577	0.3505
48	0.0126	0.0065	0.0036	0.0037	4754.1473	1765.3528	42.0161	0.7017	0.3857
49	0.0132	0.0067	0.0039	0.0039	5157.2214	2073.7045	45.5379	0.7309	0.417
50	0.0144	0.0084	0.0043	0.0043	8118.3627	2577.426	50.7684	0.917	0.4587
51	0.0174	0.01	0.0047	0.0048	11336.0725	3251.168	57.019	1.0836	0.5068
52	0.0188	0.0092	0.0051	0.0051	9702.6065	3711.9851	60.9261	1.0025	0.5422
53	0.0197	0.0093	0.0053	0.0054	10190.9526	4143.9162	64.3733	1.0274	0.5745
54	0.0212	0.0113	0.0057	0.0057	15059.7562	4826.1562	69.4705	1.2489	0.6167
55	0.0243	0.0132	0.0062	0.0062	20443.0726	5744.7984	75.7944	1.4551	0.666
56	0.0259	0.0125	0.0065	0.0065	18617.7584	6459.9628	80.3739	1.3886	0.7061