Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 9137.8 | 9137.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 9009.4 | 9036.91374290196 | -29.3231747036913 | -24.9061725986854 | -1.36803155180749 |
3 | 8926.6 | 8975.86298630502 | -39.6555460200153 | -43.191097903604 | -1.36030507271296 |
4 | 9145 | 9083.18475491523 | 15.2293178771115 | 29.8018300065854 | 6.52846574252853 |
5 | 9186.2 | 9111.77307370985 | 20.1191572340934 | 72.125720797894 | 0.548185308496574 |
6 | 9152.2 | 9155.80239120856 | 29.1018350662604 | -7.73051914177533 | 0.939330295793296 |
7 | 9093.6 | 9178.88004245597 | 26.857281571205 | -84.2369600140192 | -0.240295274428903 |
8 | 9199.2 | 9186.08381123824 | 19.4735767860087 | 16.5876796014693 | -0.787530838590919 |
9 | 9310.6 | 9228.83408450471 | 28.1352210199369 | 77.8148589235408 | 0.922588836753509 |
10 | 9282 | 9276.60512886782 | 35.4791312034797 | 2.00735215041958 | 0.779844713383364 |
11 | 9248.4 | 9322.91639896169 | 39.5200027509701 | -76.3733637930706 | 0.42987852714248 |
12 | 9341.6 | 9345.44239820522 | 33.1703971995923 | -0.911717333527747 | -0.675826739313681 |
13 | 9478.8 | 9395.53786703978 | 39.483238213889 | 80.3652263121586 | 0.671370834788322 |
14 | 9438 | 9438.05735859728 | 40.6168273227712 | -0.578959482042028 | 0.120563449852548 |
15 | 9374.6 | 9459.29961585538 | 33.3873110242948 | -81.3781459972403 | -0.768793298379821 |
16 | 9488.8 | 9493.28326058409 | 33.6098986466022 | -4.58564191694729 | 0.0236776897528971 |
17 | 9631.8 | 9541.73826858399 | 39.1493251042818 | 87.5167820086191 | 0.589080822519324 |
18 | 9588.4 | 9582.82171298026 | 39.8711602799813 | 5.24645161816842 | 0.0767731585023369 |
19 | 9514.6 | 9607.20261631234 | 34.0906281126469 | -89.9463017934775 | -0.614738900847215 |
20 | 9623.2 | 9635.23054186054 | 31.8280708118638 | -10.9905618965207 | -0.240639383743078 |
21 | 9744.6 | 9660.47074833503 | 29.369649228113 | 85.2589977903985 | -0.261449281117428 |
22 | 9685.8 | 9680.56757758063 | 25.9091764055534 | 6.82286246753824 | -0.36803389356651 |
23 | 9598 | 9693.26688499185 | 20.9795469063894 | -93.0014188848501 | -0.52426541715484 |
24 | 9703.4 | 9711.98915475251 | 20.1371736751348 | -8.20201148803648 | -0.0895886781867955 |
25 | 9817.8 | 9729.94953471938 | 19.3248416658648 | 88.2237851803248 | -0.0863919525290333 |
26 | 9762.6 | 9750.43628660287 | 19.7584430125882 | 11.9644398907124 | 0.0461143297970676 |
27 | 9669.6 | 9765.11216046915 | 17.8617365267612 | -94.6404921930609 | -0.201716535149023 |
28 | 9789.2 | 9791.09697782234 | 20.8931009890776 | -3.29011517884526 | 0.322390516292191 |
29 | 9917.4 | 9822.92761277916 | 24.9747562040882 | 92.5965789569061 | 0.434088648289508 |
30 | 9864.4 | 9850.54900730702 | 25.9624258769392 | 13.3970866487854 | 0.105040094560759 |
31 | 9779.2 | 9877.02652978433 | 26.1546490059236 | -97.9148699910488 | 0.0204431656727263 |
32 | 9898.8 | 9904.79137940381 | 26.7555418108043 | -6.26753295229602 | 0.0639057742571116 |
33 | 10048.8 | 9947.17872358243 | 32.5889990089209 | 98.9403864491437 | 0.620395579230928 |
34 | 9983.4 | 9974.82500532587 | 30.7444816521192 | 9.42268278228209 | -0.19616688378979 |
35 | 9913.4 | 10009.6920402846 | 32.2829311411289 | -96.999067816134 | 0.163616088509146 |
36 | 10031.6 | 10042.5864268049 | 32.5111133251862 | -11.0912928675323 | 0.0242674764355631 |
37 | 10184.6 | 10080.7390225202 | 34.6163949310166 | 102.893449983562 | 0.223899434630257 |
38 | 10125 | 10116.6261292852 | 35.0905976416281 | 8.15594061775968 | 0.0504320806412743 |
39 | 10065.4 | 10158.6140789686 | 37.6645431636496 | -94.3969911067376 | 0.273742462008648 |
40 | 10188.6 | 10199.8814702282 | 39.009049667967 | -11.8993672010014 | 0.142990027138478 |
41 | 10350.4 | 10244.8313216853 | 41.2260309135827 | 104.54981678981 | 0.235778849794686 |
42 | 10320.6 | 10303.923680889 | 47.8933657352903 | 13.6122015986557 | 0.709079778632746 |
43 | 10232.6 | 10338.5975886525 | 42.9601443620956 | -103.73042040799 | -0.524654537426528 |
44 | 10357.2 | 10375.0897076004 | 40.5464144474782 | -16.7804259693619 | -0.256703331957468 |
45 | 10520.2 | 10418.3216165444 | 41.5485840421252 | 101.417814810414 | 0.106582045881916 |
46 | 10473.8 | 10457.3722647787 | 40.6164073733603 | 16.8561371093209 | -0.0991382071452314 |
47 | 10407 | 10504.4370974843 | 43.0228229542481 | -98.5430176503481 | 0.255925441727831 |
48 | 10536 | 10551.4803146604 | 44.5231488157688 | -16.1698217597351 | 0.159561616248277 |
49 | 10700.2 | 10597.6569882604 | 45.1402091984643 | 102.259428335975 | 0.0656251781086539 |
50 | 10664.2 | 10647.0681839466 | 46.7340507792541 | 16.3993317892317 | 0.16950713514438 |
51 | 10606 | 10701.4195079009 | 49.5766555861964 | -96.7258882308325 | 0.302314736159805 |
52 | 10716.6 | 10740.7946263377 | 45.7696582698032 | -22.4450386363549 | -0.404879139981824 |
53 | 10882.8 | 10783.469508431 | 44.6147534327152 | 99.8612529883845 | -0.122825638756031 |
54 | 10849.4 | 10832.0317143215 | 46.0878589749057 | 16.6912882642264 | 0.156666699610487 |
55 | 10794 | 10883.8856138863 | 48.2396230405662 | -90.8745034578766 | 0.228842920505978 |
56 | 10907.8 | 10930.8277943179 | 47.7554449742446 | -22.8052798479123 | -0.0514929701232941 |
Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
1 | 11076.9369403004 | 10978.5843967501 | 98.3525435503379 |
2 | 11041.2493287014 | 11026.3401422559 | 14.9091864455069 |
3 | 10983.6409292454 | 11074.0958877617 | -90.4549585162836 |
4 | 11099.0448617879 | 11121.8516332675 | -22.8067714795611 |
5 | 11267.9599223236 | 11169.6073787733 | 98.3525435503379 |
6 | 11232.2723107246 | 11217.3631242791 | 14.9091864455069 |
7 | 11174.6639112686 | 11265.1188697849 | -90.4549585162836 |
8 | 11290.0678438112 | 11312.8746152907 | -22.8067714795611 |
9 | 11458.9829043469 | 11360.6303607965 | 98.3525435503379 |
10 | 11423.2952927478 | 11408.3861063023 | 14.9091864455069 |
11 | 11365.6868932918 | 11456.1418518081 | -90.4549585162836 |
12 | 11481.0908258344 | 11503.8975973139 | -22.8067714795611 |