Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.081394319016618 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 3120 | 3350 | -230 |
4 | 3420 | 3011.27930662618 | 408.720693373822 |
5 | 3680 | 3344.54684913134 | 335.45315086866 |
6 | 3710 | 3631.85082990827 | 78.1491700917268 |
7 | 3940 | 3668.2117283896 | 271.788271610397 |
8 | 3600 | 3920.33374967404 | -320.333749674035 |
9 | 3970 | 3554.26040226128 | 415.739597738723 |
10 | 4040 | 3958.09924370746 | 81.9007562925367 |
11 | 4060 | 4034.76549999284 | 25.2345000071596 |
12 | 3760 | 4056.81944493665 | -296.819444936648 |
13 | 4070 | 3732.66002834514 | 337.339971654861 |
14 | 4130 | 4070.11758561507 | 59.8824143849283 |
15 | 4080 | 4134.991673955 | -54.9916739550035 |
16 | 4420 | 4080.51566410185 | 339.484335898147 |
17 | 4530 | 4448.14776043909 | 81.8522395609089 |
18 | 4710 | 4564.81006773814 | 145.189932261864 |
19 | 5070 | 4756.62770340266 | 313.37229659734 |
20 | 5470 | 5142.13442808287 | 327.865571917127 |
21 | 5520 | 5568.82082303806 | -48.8208230380624 |
22 | 5980 | 5614.84708539305 | 365.152914606952 |
23 | 6340 | 6104.56845821441 | 235.431541785586 |
24 | 6170 | 6483.73124823308 | -313.731248233084 |
25 | 6170 | 6288.19530692892 | -118.195306928919 |
26 | 6670 | 6278.57488041048 | 391.42511958952 |
27 | 7310 | 6810.43466146547 | 499.565338534533 |
28 | 7330 | 7491.09644199979 | -161.096441999792 |
29 | 6430 | 7497.98410680722 | -1067.98410680722 |
30 | 6750 | 6511.05626771307 | 238.943732286926 |
31 | 7500 | 6850.50493008586 | 649.495069914143 |
32 | 7930 | 7653.37013900617 | 276.62986099383 |
33 | 8210 | 8105.88623816142 | 104.113761838576 |
34 | 7640 | 8394.36050690653 | -754.360506906532 |
35 | 7720 | 7762.95984715385 | -42.9598471538457 |
36 | 7290 | 7839.4631596497 | -549.4631596497 |
37 | 7430 | 7364.73997994529 | 65.2600200547067 |
38 | 8130 | 7510.05177483666 | 619.948225163343 |
39 | 8180 | 8260.51203844939 | -80.5120384493875 |
40 | 8230 | 8303.95881590716 | -73.9588159071609 |
41 | 8420 | 8347.93898845112 | 72.061011548878 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
42 | 8543.80434541379 | 7847.70158739146 | 9239.90710343612 |
43 | 8667.60869082758 | 7642.32383872564 | 9692.89354292953 |
44 | 8791.41303624137 | 7485.13191176577 | 10097.694160717 |
45 | 8915.21738165517 | 7347.90645658258 | 10482.5283067277 |
46 | 9039.02172706896 | 7220.25595091399 | 10857.7875032239 |
47 | 9162.82607248275 | 7097.12351508626 | 11228.5286298792 |
48 | 9286.63041789654 | 6975.66994685678 | 11597.5908889363 |
49 | 9410.43476331033 | 6854.15560812691 | 11966.7139184938 |
50 | 9534.23910872412 | 6731.45086151808 | 12337.0273559302 |
51 | 9658.04345413791 | 6606.7920291399 | 12709.2948791359 |
52 | 9781.84779955171 | 6479.64800845115 | 13084.0475906523 |
53 | 9905.6521449655 | 6349.64216107292 | 13461.6621288581 |