Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[104])
103	5019.56	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
104	5099.18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
105	5171.08	5063.9986	4826.7406	5301.2567	0.1882	0.3857	0.3857	0.3857
106	5353.5	5063.9986	4780.7434	5347.2539	0.0226	0.2294	0.2294	0.4038
107	5304.26	5063.9986	4741.2361	5386.7612	0.0723	0.0394	0.0394	0.4154
108	5636.62	5063.9986	4706.0632	5421.9341	9e-04	0.0941	0.0941	0.4236
109	5322.96	5063.9986	4674.05	5453.9473	0.0965	0.002	0.002	0.4298
110	5308.46	5063.9986	4644.4726	5483.5246	0.1267	0.1132	0.1132	0.4347
111	5352.02	5063.9986	4616.8474	5511.1498	0.1034	0.142	0.142	0.4387
112	5358.9	5063.9986	4590.8324	5537.1649	0.1109	0.1164	0.1164	0.4421
113	5421.04	5063.9986	4566.1749	5561.8224	0.0799	0.1228	0.1228	0.4449
114	5537.66	5063.9986	4542.6824	5585.3148	0.0375	0.0897	0.0897	0.4474
115	5519.38	5063.9986	4520.2039	5607.7934	0.0504	0.0439	0.0439	0.4495
116	5643.06	5063.9986	4498.6184	5629.3789	0.0224	0.0572	0.0572	0.4515

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
105	0.0239	0.0207	0.0207	0.0209	11466.4184	0	0	0.9324	0.9324
106	0.0285	0.0541	0.0374	0.0383	83811.0395	47638.729	218.263	2.5207	1.7265
107	0.0325	0.0453	0.04	0.0409	57725.5228	51000.9936	225.834	2.092	1.8484
108	0.0361	0.1016	0.0554	0.0575	327895.226	120224.5517	346.7341	4.9859	2.6327
109	0.0393	0.0486	0.0541	0.0559	67060.9878	109591.8389	331.0466	2.2548	2.5571
110	0.0423	0.0461	0.0527	0.0545	59761.3583	101286.7588	318.2558	2.1285	2.4857
111	0.0451	0.0538	0.0529	0.0546	82956.3059	98668.1227	314.1148	2.5078	2.4889
112	0.0477	0.055	0.0532	0.0548	86966.8142	97205.4591	311.7779	2.5677	2.4987
113	0.0502	0.0659	0.0546	0.0563	127478.5353	100569.1342	317.1264	3.1088	2.5665
114	0.0525	0.0855	0.0577	0.0596	224355.0873	112947.7295	336.077	4.1242	2.7223
115	0.0548	0.0825	0.0599	0.062	207372.1863	121531.7711	348.6141	3.965	2.8353
116	0.057	0.1026	0.0635	0.0659	335312.0628	139346.7954	373.2918	5.0419	3.0191