| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.591850558656145 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 4649.2 | 4751.5 | -102.3 |
| 3 | 4664.9 | 4690.95368784948 | -26.0536878494768 |
| 4 | 4691.3 | 4675.53379814071 | 15.7662018592891 |
| 5 | 4713.7 | 4684.86503351902 | 28.834966480983 |
| 6 | 4772.8 | 4701.93102453962 | 70.868975460382 |
| 7 | 4748.9 | 4743.87486725723 | 5.02513274276589 |
| 8 | 4801 | 4746.84899487836 | 54.1510051216392 |
| 9 | 4891.9 | 4778.89829751139 | 113.001702488606 |
| 10 | 4891.9 | 4845.77841825837 | 46.1215817416287 |
| 11 | 4903.5 | 4873.07550217826 | 30.4244978217412 |
| 12 | 4976.4 | 4891.08225821089 | 85.3177417891111 |
| 13 | 5009.8 | 4941.57761135206 | 68.2223886479451 |
| 14 | 4946.4 | 4981.9550701862 | -35.5550701861985 |
| 15 | 4981.9 | 4960.91178203344 | 20.9882179665619 |
| 16 | 5013.8 | 4973.33367056214 | 40.4663294378561 |
| 17 | 5015.5 | 4997.2836902467 | 18.2163097532975 |
| 18 | 5070.7 | 5008.06502335084 | 62.6349766491549 |
| 19 | 5000.9 | 5045.13556927206 | -44.2355692720621 |
| 20 | 5059.1 | 5018.95472288592 | 40.1452771140812 |
| 21 | 5156.8 | 5042.71472757329 | 114.085272426707 |
| 22 | 5002.6 | 5110.23615979348 | -107.636159793477 |
| 23 | 5059.1 | 5046.53163848811 | 12.5683615118942 |
| 24 | 5164.1 | 5053.97023027031 | 110.129769729687 |
| 25 | 5087.9 | 5119.1505960095 | -31.2505960095023 |
| 26 | 5140.8 | 5100.65491330294 | 40.1450866970599 |
| 27 | 5192.8 | 5124.41480529189 | 68.3851947081057 |
| 28 | 5177.6 | 5164.8886209837 | 12.7113790163039 |
| 29 | 5167.8 | 5172.41185775579 | -4.61185775578542 |
| 30 | 5248.4 | 5169.68232716658 | 78.717672833418 |
| 31 | 5097.5 | 5216.27142580915 | -118.771425809152 |
| 32 | 5187.3 | 5145.97649109162 | 41.3235089083819 |
| 33 | 5261.5 | 5170.43383292468 | 91.0661670753234 |
| 34 | 5179.7 | 5224.33139478288 | -44.6313947828812 |
| 35 | 5205.6 | 5197.91627884703 | 7.68372115297097 |
| 36 | 5353.3 | 5202.46389350397 | 150.836106496027 |
| 37 | 5425.7 | 5291.73632739916 | 133.963672600836 |
| 38 | 5215.2 | 5371.0228018676 | -155.822801867597 |
| 39 | 5215.6 | 5278.79898953089 | -63.1989895308934 |
| 40 | 5216.4 | 5241.39463227053 | -24.9946322705309 |
| 41 | 5208.2 | 5226.60154519781 | -18.4015451978121 |
| 42 | 5237.5 | 5215.71058039235 | 21.7894196076495 |
| 43 | 5175 | 5228.60666055993 | -53.6066605599317 |
| 44 | 5300.2 | 5196.87952855985 | 103.320471440154 |
| 45 | 5279.3 | 5258.02980730232 | 21.2701926976833 |
| 46 | 5262.6 | 5270.61858273316 | -8.01858273316429 |
| 47 | 5220.5 | 5265.87278006291 | -45.3727800629113 |
| 48 | 5372.1 | 5239.0188748349 | 133.081125165105 |
| 49 | 5406 | 5317.78301311045 | 88.2169868895489 |
| 50 | 5317.2 | 5369.99428608399 | -52.794286083993 |
| 51 | 5258.4 | 5338.74795837133 | -80.3479583713297 |
| 52 | 5204.2 | 5291.19397432238 | -86.9939743223777 |
| 53 | 5304.2 | 5239.70654201996 | 64.4934579800401 |
| 54 | 5300.2 | 5277.87703115511 | 22.3229688448873 |
| 55 | 5228.8 | 5291.08889273682 | -62.2888927368231 |
| 56 | 5303.3 | 5254.22317677246 | 49.0768232275386 |
| 57 | 5296 | 5283.26932201675 | 12.7306779832506 |
| 58 | 5341.1 | 5290.80398089321 | 50.2960191067923 |
| 59 | 5354.8 | 5320.57170789974 | 34.228292100257 |
| 60 | 5447.8 | 5340.82974170113 | 106.970258298874 |
| 61 | 5405.6 | 5404.14014883491 | 1.45985116509291 |
| 62 | 5333.4 | 5405.00416256252 | -71.6041625625221 |
| 63 | 5291.9 | 5362.62519894779 | -70.7251989477882 |
| 64 | 5414.4 | 5320.76645043947 | 93.6335495605272 |
| 65 | 5317.2 | 5376.18351905583 | -58.9835190558288 |
| 66 | 5380.5 | 5341.27409035113 | 39.2259096488688 |
| 67 | 5431.5 | 5364.48996689061 | 67.01003310939 |
| 68 | 5363.5 | 5404.14989242197 | -40.6498924219686 |
| 69 | 5435.4 | 5380.09123088271 | 55.3087691172859 |
| 70 | 5499.8 | 5412.82575678336 | 86.9742432166377 |
| 71 | 5447.4 | 5464.30151121982 | -16.9015112198249 |
| 72 | 5633 | 5454.29834236224 | 178.701657637762 |
| 73 | 5617.4 | 5560.06301826793 | 57.3369817320727 |
| 74 | 5567.8 | 5593.99794293771 | -26.1979429377106 |
| 75 | 5574 | 5578.49267577439 | -4.49267577438513 |
| 76 | 5710.4 | 5575.83368310745 | 134.566316892546 |
| 77 | 5583.1 | 5655.47683293661 | -72.3768329366067 |
| 78 | 5610.8 | 5612.64056392931 | -1.84056392931325 |
| 79 | 5620.1 | 5611.55122513951 | 8.54877486049372 |
| 80 | 5759.4 | 5616.61082231652 | 142.789177683484 |
| 81 | 5838.7 | 5701.12067689854 | 137.579323101462 |
| 82 | 5843.3 | 5782.54707613567 | 60.7529238643283 |
| 83 | 5821 | 5818.50372806477 | 2.49627193523156 |
| 84 | 5895.1 | 5819.98114800419 | 75.1188519958077 |
| 85 | 5881.6 | 5864.44028252352 | 17.1597174764811 |
| 86 | 5827.7 | 5874.59627089836 | -46.8962708983563 |
| 87 | 5865.9 | 5846.84068676827 | 19.0593132317263 |
| 88 | 5918.4 | 5858.12095195207 | 60.2790480479271 |
| 89 | 5875.2 | 5893.7971402145 | -18.5971402144996 |
| 90 | 6078.4 | 5882.79041238914 | 195.609587610858 |
| 91 | 5986.3 | 5998.56205609513 | -12.2620560951264 |
| 92 | 6019.7 | 5991.30475134495 | 28.395248655047 |
| 93 | 6255.7 | 6008.11049512462 | 247.589504875377 |
| 94 | 6128.4 | 6154.64648190251 | -26.2464819025136 |
| 95 | 6210 | 6139.11248692575 | 70.8875130742481 |
| 96 | 6301.8 | 6181.06730114049 | 120.73269885951 |
| 97 | 6305.7 | 6252.52301640856 | 53.1769835914447 |
| 98 | 6261.2 | 6283.9958438548 | -22.7958438548003 |
| 99 | 6200.5 | 6270.5041109343 | -70.0041109342983 |
| 100 | 6185.5 | 6229.07213876961 | -43.5721387696067 |
| 101 | 6237.4 | 6203.28394409697 | 34.1160559030277 |
| 102 | 6399 | 6223.47555084232 | 175.524449157678 |
| 103 | 6182.5 | 6327.35979413411 | -144.859794134106 |
| 104 | 6292.3 | 6241.62444404902 | 50.6755559509793 |
| 105 | 6419.8 | 6271.61680014882 | 148.183199851182 |
| 106 | 6273.7 | 6359.3191097642 | -85.6191097641959 |
| 107 | 6344.8 | 6308.64539181861 | 36.1546081813858 |
| 108 | 6490.4 | 6330.04351686876 | 160.356483131238 |
| 109 | 6355.4 | 6424.95059099412 | -69.5505909941203 |
| 110 | 6383.1 | 6383.78703485939 | -0.687034859384767 |
| 111 | 6377.3 | 6383.38041289404 | -6.08041289404173 |
| 112 | 6324.9 | 6379.78171712584 | -54.8817171258434 |
| 113 | 6342.2 | 6347.2999421849 | -5.09994218490374 |
| 114 | 6364.1 | 6344.28153855365 | 19.8184614463462 |
| 115 | 6249.5 | 6356.01110603238 | -106.51110603238 |
| 116 | 6439.2 | 6292.97244842403 | 146.227551575967 |
| 117 | 6409.4 | 6379.51730651519 | 29.8826934848112 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 118 | 6397.20339534832 | 6248.18515447236 | 6546.22163622429 |
| 119 | 6397.20339534832 | 6224.04143687811 | 6570.36535381854 |
| 120 | 6397.20339534832 | 6202.87457193627 | 6591.53221876038 |
| 121 | 6397.20339534832 | 6183.79693022558 | 6610.60986047107 |
| 122 | 6397.20339534832 | 6166.29010620355 | 6628.1166844931 |
| 123 | 6397.20339534832 | 6150.02011344776 | 6644.38667724889 |
| 124 | 6397.20339534832 | 6134.75682440748 | 6659.64996628917 |
| 125 | 6397.20339534832 | 6120.33369612849 | 6674.07309456815 |
| 126 | 6397.20339534832 | 6106.62559493413 | 6687.78119576252 |
| 127 | 6397.20339534832 | 6093.53567259692 | 6700.87111809973 |
| 128 | 6397.20339534832 | 6080.98715036951 | 6713.41964032714 |
| 129 | 6397.20339534832 | 6068.91793825957 | 6725.48885243708 |
