| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 4393.9 | 4393.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 4248 | 4359.65235110047 | -2.17343659554694 | -58.9117385762458 | -1.7849689271686 |
| 3 | 4346.2 | 4341.86050999648 | -3.84037960522795 | 16.1623757341549 | -0.472367286652765 |
| 4 | 4351.7 | 4341.04902647048 | -3.55557320340143 | 8.28317004907125 | 0.0957112761067133 |
| 5 | 4424.4 | 4365.24738553109 | -1.40281794354729 | 34.5540161468579 | 0.968533435237428 |
| 6 | 4468.4 | 4399.15850115823 | 0.863131729589886 | 35.0328349562844 | 1.31977092708012 |
| 7 | 4519.1 | 4439.61163834993 | 3.02447562716267 | 39.0220676554886 | 1.54179876087262 |
| 8 | 4518.2 | 4470.21525947595 | 4.34896857601876 | 18.8798052403152 | 1.10065555679162 |
| 9 | 4574.5 | 4505.9850340527 | 5.71570089212847 | 34.7034884288892 | 1.27279358635038 |
| 10 | 4509.6 | 4515.900327058 | 5.88485316659067 | -10.8756644807928 | 0.171729755545667 |
| 11 | 4337.9 | 4471.66033144556 | 3.98603292760348 | -78.6984249992488 | -2.06261712279895 |
| 12 | 4441.8 | 4455.31672978334 | 3.25406056723012 | 8.94575112512744 | -0.840263749922301 |
| 13 | 4414.1 | 4444.21957891144 | 3.91781004128107 | -11.3122705126686 | -0.740686970830514 |
| 14 | 4465.9 | 4463.14094367802 | 4.07381432043515 | -13.3201850216547 | 0.634409146915988 |
| 15 | 4426 | 4456.32668455974 | 3.68197337592326 | -20.3950298922257 | -0.405529216745529 |
| 16 | 4518.8 | 4476.43030749087 | 4.37057632564985 | 27.703536114274 | 0.607028932628631 |
| 17 | 4606.3 | 4514.39529396675 | 5.72356608399644 | 60.7920856954319 | 1.28427815894141 |
| 18 | 4647.4 | 4557.59435800714 | 7.0838039307704 | 53.6480664382199 | 1.48254207803017 |
| 19 | 4650.8 | 4589.71612566382 | 7.89137402827027 | 36.1691046596822 | 1.01554558973141 |
| 20 | 4650.2 | 4615.81893713199 | 8.41776609473827 | 15.8813458939075 | 0.750861086301673 |
| 21 | 4720.1 | 4641.11946222125 | 8.86135525312822 | 61.5985782788849 | 0.703404343590753 |
| 22 | 4655 | 4647.85892901965 | 8.81050733089617 | 9.34616550963506 | -0.089022844268724 |
| 23 | 4520.8 | 4637.81556533442 | 8.41461076459595 | -97.2550888502811 | -0.795520934204925 |
| 24 | 4617.3 | 4631.26394503417 | 8.19177080300369 | 1.94471602373579 | -0.637676728266749 |
| 25 | 4488.1 | 4609.4509892582 | 8.24998525733642 | -87.9462836288983 | -1.34044844737858 |
| 26 | 4527.4 | 4593.78792253493 | 8.03679036730101 | -41.0846692586027 | -1.0198427978051 |
| 27 | 4618.3 | 4611.35920469014 | 8.23147143689435 | -2.49721155949602 | 0.38533190434861 |
| 28 | 4642.8 | 4628.48883500775 | 8.46264541802074 | 5.74025355955022 | 0.353182935114405 |
| 29 | 4667.3 | 4639.42037881178 | 8.52974503363033 | 25.490219370453 | 0.0987055180876148 |
| 30 | 4640.6 | 4639.33062303683 | 8.30469873053469 | 9.7552695805958 | -0.35004697394025 |
| 31 | 4716.9 | 4658.34425518873 | 8.56333464361295 | 47.822767315978 | 0.441551249529563 |
| 32 | 4719.4 | 4680.17815270896 | 8.8553267834159 | 25.7257729849638 | 0.553723705070396 |
| 33 | 4817.3 | 4705.70232142913 | 9.18649103136309 | 94.4574906195744 | 0.701526806746741 |
| 34 | 4764.5 | 4722.95489357487 | 9.32841238283226 | 33.1800545910677 | 0.341578324427734 |
| 35 | 4514.1 | 4700.23249161144 | 8.85534898860044 | -152.638323271482 | -1.36433274813287 |
| 36 | 4625 | 4675.82348565155 | 8.49574175053803 | -15.7378449613615 | -1.42559218651163 |
| 37 | 4617.7 | 4679.06450562607 | 8.46325866765449 | -55.754159409687 | -0.227599603749476 |
| 38 | 4361.3 | 4619.95155693814 | 7.82537048875288 | -187.852147849648 | -2.87813749424706 |
| 39 | 4474.9 | 4578.19937433334 | 7.09448769544753 | -52.8937650829979 | -2.06077628706543 |
| 40 | 4623.8 | 4582.56926231544 | 7.04428026210899 | 43.9510349837698 | -0.111805366014015 |
| 41 | 4692 | 4606.87123740646 | 7.38901199148805 | 67.9416695674821 | 0.708226981495355 |
| 42 | 4672.1 | 4632.33785970437 | 7.74973771973166 | 21.6324776514918 | 0.747201375248518 |
| 43 | 4721.5 | 4655.26945331952 | 8.0384320124812 | 50.8484130055989 | 0.633225993426952 |
| 44 | 4784.6 | 4691.79182878435 | 8.53999627072951 | 63.6590709160267 | 1.19792385594012 |
| 45 | 4858.7 | 4719.4908053923 | 8.8455761260722 | 119.436442534092 | 0.811096683379602 |
| 46 | 4813.3 | 4736.00593377462 | 8.95354635301731 | 69.3241485338458 | 0.326331061982009 |
| 47 | 4628.2 | 4746.74244883225 | 8.97486534146742 | -120.40609474647 | 0.0761721234002062 |
| 48 | 4710.4 | 4742.32611435105 | 8.84497397320113 | -17.8556273545272 | -0.574222500569508 |
| 49 | 4698.4 | 4734.62727508619 | 8.71073274417304 | -18.7961484245678 | -0.710732500400637 |
| 50 | 4631 | 4750.36130254658 | 8.77685068001543 | -126.694502808114 | 0.299312162487998 |
| 51 | 4727.4 | 4767.31378332724 | 8.87532947916211 | -48.323999889038 | 0.344238195882442 |
| 52 | 4719.9 | 4758.82408906327 | 8.62668057602142 | -21.2561658956933 | -0.725338910497746 |
| 53 | 4890.6 | 4782.7761285977 | 8.86549665911731 | 92.2836083085962 | 0.639200505465205 |
| 54 | 4839.9 | 4806.07241186924 | 9.0944177837194 | 19.1541460764429 | 0.603867696480136 |
| 55 | 4867.5 | 4824.65784995861 | 9.2407236372452 | 33.1347469836781 | 0.399303674979821 |
| 56 | 4898.3 | 4839.59744480392 | 9.32331894565456 | 52.8349508394751 | 0.24110346994379 |
| 57 | 4675.7 | 4781.50401562731 | 8.42822985524351 | -35.96354998033 | -2.86605922949423 |
| 58 | 4981.9 | 4804.99895298169 | 8.60720251087347 | 161.211295622019 | 0.642998982142582 |
| 59 | 4771.1 | 4831.18041502103 | 8.79010513278354 | -78.4583716542999 | 0.752234418726198 |
| 60 | 4827.8 | 4842.43634734655 | 8.81251625567956 | -17.2225309339492 | 0.105753187231161 |
| 61 | 4685 | 4818.57879721478 | 8.53755764762147 | -99.303894640053 | -1.40091391416415 |
| 62 | 4646.1 | 4808.73552071636 | 8.37146706839919 | -143.448146858763 | -0.784691886949534 |
| 63 | 4815 | 4822.79879019765 | 8.43085031334565 | -13.6930517919983 | 0.241417456485117 |
| 64 | 4911.8 | 4860.00298413558 | 8.77089229460245 | 22.1959867093626 | 1.21451515777782 |
| 65 | 4958.4 | 4876.04600291982 | 8.86342530760161 | 74.8931027097311 | 0.306504894432978 |
| 66 | 5019.4 | 4914.18330490361 | 9.24497979276139 | 75.152225722265 | 1.2357142286281 |
| 67 | 5024.3 | 4942.13729198145 | 9.48481637452664 | 62.8828074358449 | 0.79229649415922 |
| 68 | 5035.8 | 4952.85853970122 | 9.49991877141848 | 81.6617218004037 | 0.0525558154362989 |
| 69 | 5082.4 | 5003.01985167329 | 9.96151250596553 | 37.1113620199162 | 1.73433313022647 |
| 70 | 5179.2 | 5024.06108228781 | 10.0762212525273 | 143.57745333299 | 0.473929963557984 |
| 71 | 4963.2 | 5036.38623251315 | 10.0972536025395 | -75.5398847807052 | 0.0963985474492846 |
| 72 | 4951.3 | 5022.94817823666 | 9.89619130609713 | -46.9740961855323 | -1.00993290295566 |
| 73 | 4876.4 | 5013.8293931169 | 9.74037741509264 | -117.499132936355 | -0.815556757076684 |
| 74 | 4812.1 | 5007.80483019736 | 9.60610958037021 | -179.229863736709 | -0.674388985274575 |
| 75 | 5004.1 | 5021.18846872539 | 9.64123054916371 | -21.0182240133076 | 0.160999491480456 |
| 76 | 5093.8 | 5045.36916766505 | 9.78872443276989 | 33.3657325949018 | 0.617848080716573 |
| 77 | 5063.1 | 5049.01850554676 | 9.72266370279152 | 20.4304390057036 | -0.260596419754109 |
| 78 | 5078.6 | 5049.17874399605 | 9.61732612868601 | 39.3134134714483 | -0.406186731707974 |
| 79 | 5251.5 | 5090.92171671097 | 9.9678366778909 | 127.277511842732 | 1.36729047211537 |
| 80 | 5263.2 | 5133.17881883618 | 10.3072300709524 | 96.4543393973861 | 1.37765352756799 |
| 81 | 5280.5 | 5174.30029103594 | 10.6125771176656 | 74.0689996908308 | 1.31791707041008 |
| 82 | 5386.1 | 5202.63693663802 | 10.7757905135226 | 164.931556452887 | 0.759613145461104 |
| 83 | 5227.3 | 5232.61015057222 | 10.9394888840374 | -25.4237339194096 | 0.823972146847494 |
| 84 | 5149.5 | 5232.61107630299 | 10.8519148981422 | -71.6378915694727 | -0.469808809459504 |
| 85 | 5128.6 | 5240.53142895881 | 10.8290695833708 | -108.857399676184 | -0.125856780902166 |
| 86 | 5087.7 | 5256.46131573343 | 10.8696958051563 | -174.100415520066 | 0.218636381718228 |
| 87 | 5188.5 | 5257.48335282743 | 10.7868240918782 | -58.7033699904892 | -0.421179734325209 |
| 88 | 5084 | 5215.25984903563 | 10.3130576980452 | -76.0579154741329 | -2.26310058443534 |
| 89 | 5258.6 | 5220.79021487997 | 10.2683659014353 | 42.7836277728615 | -0.204019457695029 |
| 90 | 5348.9 | 5257.47011678506 | 10.5201396494488 | 63.9604832098261 | 1.12706309032101 |
| 91 | 5280 | 5254.06175254141 | 10.3881291985612 | 40.4425596702901 | -0.595098628698724 |
| 92 | 5374.2 | 5271.88309558217 | 10.4565910277186 | 94.5616022461997 | 0.318110831333852 |
| 93 | 5458.4 | 5311.56278010953 | 10.7135301028611 | 116.283586920879 | 1.25275420037143 |
| 94 | 5315 | 5289.53348397683 | 10.4416511429938 | 59.7661371920506 | -1.40570564070563 |
| 95 | 5294.5 | 5296.08257853813 | 10.41115177668 | 2.50100642190698 | -0.167288816026054 |
| 96 | 5341.4 | 5329.30513917132 | 10.5819115468625 | -11.8537738983738 | 0.980795484509522 |
| 97 | 5068 | 5304.32560100024 | 10.3209055129043 | -198.99796397628 | -1.52855598321778 |
| 98 | 5156.9 | 5306.52327422242 | 10.2605630417165 | -141.105983402472 | -0.34882119099357 |
| 99 | 5184.7 | 5289.14650831199 | 10.0479484450155 | -75.515790973168 | -1.18520731875972 |
| 100 | 5280.7 | 5308.12174216418 | 10.1195094612293 | -36.7525649139622 | 0.382406440100218 |
| 101 | 5339 | 5318.41826436753 | 10.1209752602204 | 20.3968829680877 | 0.00757842530563099 |
| 102 | 5377.7 | 5323.60135313598 | 10.0794445276079 | 59.2552403309861 | -0.211445349942204 |
| 103 | 5388.6 | 5338.27766772036 | 10.1179567534316 | 45.518112172154 | 0.196996357932421 |
| 104 | 5443.6 | 5351.84532021653 | 10.1462290927525 | 88.1447553356377 | 0.147999804536696 |
| 105 | 5528.7 | 5368.68707735207 | 10.199153800425 | 152.996137927402 | 0.287595096854997 |
| 106 | 5539 | 5403.18831505292 | 10.3829402698607 | 110.308779793252 | 1.04495106835757 |
| 107 | 5292 | 5389.80938612324 | 10.210975927901 | -72.8475229920227 | -1.02248706571142 |
| 108 | 5351.5 | 5379.64689264645 | 10.0684718337971 | -6.73325510127896 | -0.876964626707017 |
| 109 | 5163.7 | 5376.30542853521 | 9.97612098178368 | -198.512139242089 | -0.577124922128635 |
| 110 | 5105 | 5346.52105542434 | 9.70065323127821 | -199.762517266969 | -1.71014039612568 |
| 111 | 5248.1 | 5342.21593716876 | 9.60144171738242 | -79.4211171603852 | -0.601911772689491 |
| 112 | 5370.9 | 5361.85079736987 | 9.67451661584862 | -1.4677846981722 | 0.430890217283077 |
| 113 | 5484.9 | 5394.81755678697 | 9.84810462470246 | 65.6814424746962 | 0.999949991243736 |
| 114 | 5510.7 | 5421.37045785364 | 9.97402265803122 | 71.8297989007315 | 0.717228179323415 |
| 115 | 5484.9 | 5437.68553826226 | 10.0216734629798 | 40.5682568123339 | 0.272396306857326 |
| 116 | 5567.8 | 5457.96875362993 | 10.0974807069537 | 99.0665060367657 | 0.441147123640704 |
| 117 | 5275.6 | 5390.12799048732 | 9.5376506310119 | -32.684124859085 | -3.3533924147242 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 5595.63358455174 | 5389.83789763932 | 205.795686912423 |
| 2 | 5351.45184268939 | 5396.55786829506 | -45.1060256056615 |
| 3 | 5415.59427882282 | 5403.27783895079 | 12.3164398720302 |
| 4 | 5234.57194095201 | 5409.99780960653 | -175.425868654525 |
| 5 | 5212.65650002683 | 5416.71778026227 | -204.061280235442 |
| 6 | 5321.44743880773 | 5423.43775091801 | -101.990312110277 |
| 7 | 5403.86851013309 | 5430.15772157374 | -26.2892114406555 |
| 8 | 5492.0064617387 | 5436.87769222948 | 55.1287695092197 |
| 9 | 5521.84238576352 | 5443.59766288522 | 78.2447228783041 |
| 10 | 5512.76595232073 | 5450.31763354096 | 62.4483187797777 |
| 11 | 5619.14016086885 | 5457.03760419669 | 162.102556672158 |
| 12 | 5440.59377827508 | 5463.75757485243 | -23.1637965773512 |
