Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 15283 | 15283 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 14698 | 14746.6518074082 | -33.7515156539011 | -29.983443921592 | -2.73695234336692 |
3 | 14664 | 14695.6726016391 | -34.5090909526598 | -30.1238883555463 | -0.141757502703502 |
4 | 14660 | 14687.6699251304 | -32.9712336545741 | -30.0222172597913 | 0.216164272944241 |
5 | 14605 | 14636.6538890677 | -34.2833988351958 | -30.0804554520408 | -0.145724988869715 |
6 | 14480 | 14517.6062165807 | -41.5163502756105 | -30.3278769093746 | -0.678781102482594 |
7 | 14412 | 14445.0413874208 | -44.4887159226063 | -30.4095970205891 | -0.246874277516106 |
8 | 14454 | 14477.7530849845 | -36.4502848951034 | -30.2279321951543 | 0.610267733676781 |
9 | 13915 | 13984.1947957874 | -87.0879576967468 | -31.1825482948092 | -3.5964296133015 |
10 | 13858 | 13889.7995709831 | -87.9354872139931 | -31.1960123976709 | -0.0572764468988623 |
11 | 13768 | 13799.40225852 | -88.2309425382439 | -31.1999962993236 | -0.0192394337201159 |
12 | 13738 | 13764.7410167284 | -81.6360267057043 | -31.1241262639937 | 0.417684815471054 |
13 | 13647 | 13442.2267795571 | -107.742627890366 | 223.798790373646 | -2.22239351682569 |
14 | 13591 | 13590.2778774214 | -74.3926447179129 | -14.192614548742 | 1.68296477180207 |
15 | 13589 | 13596.4867601733 | -64.0286212977832 | -14.026117182708 | 0.625790798773415 |
16 | 13294 | 13324.8854951095 | -90.8931151898425 | -14.0618099834971 | -1.60930794271861 |
17 | 13418 | 13417.2265604227 | -67.0331604284741 | -14.0600345578659 | 1.41960115331285 |
18 | 13251 | 13271.4307954288 | -77.337433448193 | -14.0597491335622 | -0.60994610122619 |
19 | 13156 | 13171.8572572455 | -80.2567668786078 | -14.0596562082436 | -0.17214418768644 |
20 | 13045 | 13061.4924484082 | -84.2200246522599 | -14.0595444682315 | -0.233030624928595 |
21 | 12980 | 12992.804897707 | -82.1713727292545 | -14.0595945334184 | 0.120197015609723 |
22 | 12910 | 12923.0563747462 | -80.5304375149647 | -14.0596292271458 | 0.096120534839149 |
23 | 12851 | 12863.3761558946 | -77.7732750923042 | -14.0596796594045 | 0.161310256131575 |
24 | 12907 | 12910.9410910449 | -61.1851979799834 | -14.0599421931279 | 0.969621386361536 |
25 | 12586 | 12532.7653793041 | -102.249519544447 | 78.2621834097589 | -2.68008900196814 |
26 | 12384 | 12394.0918294378 | -107.039575076223 | -7.67698078392633 | -0.255467312159065 |
27 | 12297 | 12303.3444599084 | -104.881189762729 | -7.65963607423687 | 0.126092481156421 |
28 | 12312 | 12310.6241827347 | -90.0113234559728 | -7.67520987024547 | 0.867420956965301 |
29 | 12301 | 12302.1162222918 | -79.2039934614486 | -7.69244945151092 | 0.63025996097905 |
30 | 12218 | 12225.4853260056 | -78.8627609138613 | -7.69294088535428 | 0.0198977993192114 |
31 | 11897 | 11922.7218391067 | -108.558182731194 | -7.65576959806933 | -1.73146031522625 |
32 | 11877 | 11879.4011988411 | -99.9052629194415 | -7.6651491963495 | 0.504501353404571 |
33 | 11802 | 11807.4157720309 | -96.2018479412805 | -7.66862432486779 | 0.215915852880214 |
34 | 11582 | 11598.7327246478 | -111.12253198367 | -7.65650466430781 | -0.86987684267482 |
35 | 11493 | 11499.6834194188 | -109.520956376811 | -7.65763077855138 | 0.0933698482724327 |
36 | 11390 | 11397.0985031651 | -108.600829162601 | -7.65819081621265 | 0.0536413524172739 |
37 | 11162 | 11118.4696393862 | -130.94026975412 | 57.0405830501674 | -1.39745757987086 |
38 | 10962 | 10968.7185415202 | -133.414089830744 | -5.40067996535823 | -0.135608724276451 |
39 | 10805 | 10812.2765820313 | -136.46772401048 | -5.41801167167354 | -0.178179762051363 |
40 | 10602 | 10612.5162219699 | -144.865422746434 | -5.40937733835854 | -0.489453558083086 |
41 | 10552 | 10550.7225432532 | -133.843507626397 | -5.42483231800475 | 0.642370720870023 |
42 | 10373 | 10381.2902920863 | -138.565270200736 | -5.41889224398308 | -0.275204114960736 |
43 | 10279 | 10281.3111590547 | -133.445925684394 | -5.42448681988513 | 0.298390303677605 |
44 | 10131 | 10137.2774550015 | -134.850622798785 | -5.42315749287824 | -0.0818781328526161 |
45 | 10164 | 10156.9700450904 | -114.347270694471 | -5.43995452682744 | 1.19514688880575 |
46 | 10090 | 10091.5005905181 | -107.862637814782 | -5.44455324489605 | 0.377998594117404 |
47 | 10107 | 10102.8359991314 | -92.0486107493155 | -5.45426136491974 | 0.921835744932029 |
48 | 10042 | 10044.718656121 | -87.5469385320659 | -5.45665361666227 | 0.262415593523324 |
49 | 10029 | 9967.01443849254 | -86.2496539152126 | 61.2004828931211 | 0.0797309960520816 |
50 | 9950 | 9949.93725066885 | -77.140167828037 | -4.93426485352051 | 0.50633634181417 |
51 | 9781 | 9792.46535432216 | -87.7938086712316 | -4.98199803697573 | -0.621517145972445 |
52 | 9559 | 9574.47273031028 | -105.068960063253 | -4.96724842699307 | -1.00687390131815 |
53 | 9275 | 9294.08586753017 | -128.330379514978 | -4.94056873579257 | -1.35573277904453 |
54 | 9275 | 9271.42868885016 | -114.30990437774 | -4.95498256237499 | 0.817186163054117 |
55 | 9219 | 9218.97156788999 | -106.103580943871 | -4.96231065069454 | 0.478326717640411 |
56 | 9192 | 9190.69083804888 | -95.7785569765117 | -4.97029473131276 | 0.601839314009388 |
57 | 9105 | 9108.84712275333 | -93.9297878085699 | -4.97153231397152 | 0.107766129819552 |
58 | 9100 | 9098.25340983286 | -82.8734339252777 | -4.97793919534479 | 0.644494336363351 |
59 | 9083 | 9082.56136296884 | -73.9603675960651 | -4.98241017668623 | 0.519565124079577 |
60 | 9092 | 9090.38748081185 | -63.1096189712702 | -4.98712185410766 | 0.63252371101273 |
61 | 9098 | 9040.773965421 | -61.3282708930123 | 56.1470219119428 | 0.108355975746022 |
62 | 9195 | 9183.52646883398 | -34.42016982896 | -3.56200407168793 | 1.50853727207844 |
63 | 9087 | 9094.95871176587 | -41.6017427435389 | -3.58868513431122 | -0.41890982863017 |
Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
1 | 9096.66279882659 | 9144.45563319525 | -47.7928343686578 |
2 | 9160.03433009749 | 9152.9162003229 | 7.11812977459878 |
3 | 9164.02873860055 | 9161.37676745055 | 2.65197115000776 |
4 | 9148.24601949101 | 9169.83733457819 | -21.591315087185 |
5 | 9202.68615803177 | 9178.29790170584 | 24.388256325925 |
6 | 9159.54917986929 | 9186.75846883349 | -27.2092889642045 |
7 | 9174.03505650566 | 9195.21903596114 | -21.1839794554827 |
8 | 9222.34378959998 | 9203.67960308879 | 18.6641865111896 |
9 | 9287.87538601429 | 9212.14017021644 | 75.7352157978512 |
10 | 9263.0979384598 | 9220.60073734409 | 42.4972011157048 |
11 | 9200.51706181959 | 9229.06130447174 | -28.5442426521481 |
12 | 9212.78857145179 | 9237.52187159939 | -24.733300147599 |