| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.447076668976734 |
| beta | 0.0333439809755555 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 1350 | 1778 | -428 |
| 4 | 716 | 1974.27085445351 | -1258.27085445351 |
| 5 | 2068 | 1780.58953977778 | 287.410460222216 |
| 6 | 1392 | 2282.23079710328 | -890.230797103284 |
| 7 | 734 | 2244.10517209776 | -1510.10517209776 |
| 8 | 758 | 1906.33656142507 | -1148.33656142507 |
| 9 | 558 | 1713.18764021994 | -1155.18764021994 |
| 10 | 1620 | 1499.75501439981 | 120.244985600189 |
| 11 | 3132 | 1858.33108842674 | 1273.66891157326 |
| 12 | 1392 | 2751.56307406988 | -1359.56307406988 |
| 13 | 918 | 2447.27103863642 | -1529.27103863642 |
| 14 | 776 | 2044.30920516728 | -1268.30920516728 |
| 15 | 1348 | 1739.11023289823 | -391.110232898232 |
| 16 | 502 | 1820.25605136992 | -1318.25605136992 |
| 17 | 1274 | 1467.24494620943 | -193.244946209429 |
| 18 | 1638 | 1614.31929503801 | 23.6807049619879 |
| 19 | 912 | 1858.72905715859 | -946.729057158589 |
| 20 | 1250 | 1655.17806611844 | -405.178066118443 |
| 21 | 1614 | 1687.70177078797 | -73.7017707879722 |
| 22 | 2840 | 1867.32209783576 | 972.677902164244 |
| 23 | 1150 | 2529.25438035224 | -1379.25438035224 |
| 24 | 1652 | 2119.131631526 | -467.131631526005 |
| 25 | 1526 | 2109.83400412386 | -583.834004123856 |
| 26 | 1412 | 2039.65807076008 | -627.658070760084 |
| 27 | 882 | 1940.53272249734 | -1058.53272249734 |
| 28 | 848 | 1632.99348845703 | -784.993488457028 |
| 29 | 820 | 1436.04511805873 | -616.045118058731 |
| 30 | 1226 | 1305.44604311589 | -79.4460431158905 |
| 31 | 1212 | 1413.56356790919 | -201.563567909185 |
| 32 | 2110 | 1464.08042470439 | 645.919575295609 |
| 33 | 1178 | 1903.1161493615 | -725.116149361505 |
| 34 | 2548 | 1718.38425365548 | 829.615746344522 |
| 35 | 1568 | 2241.10405907727 | -673.104059077268 |
| 36 | 2088 | 2081.95872461321 | 6.04127538679086 |
| 37 | 2178 | 2226.53348323333 | -48.5334832333324 |
| 38 | 3016 | 2345.98563659089 | 670.014363409107 |
| 39 | 5514 | 2796.67188352877 | 2717.32811647123 |
| 40 | 1358 | 4203.17241229432 | -2845.17241229432 |
| 41 | 3604 | 3080.39484941005 | 523.605150589954 |
| 42 | 1962 | 3471.52468527389 | -1509.52468527389 |
| 43 | 2036 | 2931.1866451124 | -895.186645112403 |
| 44 | 2246 | 2652.15997942359 | -406.159979423594 |
| 45 | 3434 | 2585.71097133426 | 848.289028665737 |
| 46 | 4316 | 3092.74255974565 | 1223.25744025435 |
| 47 | 3032 | 3785.64926172549 | -753.649261725492 |
| 48 | 5296 | 3583.49221285016 | 1712.50778714984 |
| 49 | 3850 | 4509.42533720078 | -659.425337200782 |
| 50 | 2098 | 4365.09223943737 | -2267.09223943737 |
| 51 | 3992 | 3468.21251790819 | 523.787482091807 |
| 52 | 4860 | 3826.87827127856 | 1033.12172872144 |
| 53 | 7336 | 4428.65655504754 | 2907.34344495246 |
| 54 | 9614 | 5911.69632792741 | 3702.30367207259 |
| 55 | 2988 | 7805.33568168095 | -4817.33568168095 |
| 56 | 2756 | 5818.22950725546 | -3062.22950725546 |
| 57 | 3540 | 4570.14073223192 | -1030.14073223192 |
| 58 | 2710 | 4215.19480444775 | -1505.19480444775 |
| 59 | 3730 | 3625.42486996486 | 104.575130035137 |
| 60 | 3508 | 3756.9044501129 | -248.904450112898 |
| 61 | 2640 | 3726.64105973911 | -1086.64105973911 |
| 62 | 2788 | 3305.64627485746 | -517.646274857461 |
| 63 | 3502 | 3131.31906649879 | 370.680933501206 |
| 64 | 3700 | 3359.668085205 | 340.331914794999 |
| 65 | 3250 | 3579.52220110133 | -329.522201101332 |
| 66 | 4866 | 3494.98787859967 | 1371.01212140033 |
| 67 | 2836 | 4191.16088734077 | -1355.16088734077 |
| 68 | 3498 | 3648.32373677575 | -150.323736775755 |
| 69 | 3468 | 3641.90024270662 | -173.900242706621 |
| 70 | 3924 | 3622.34385703887 | 301.656142961131 |
| 71 | 5738 | 3819.89451961594 | 1918.10548038406 |
| 72 | 7028 | 4768.71577194957 | 2259.28422805043 |
| 73 | 5608 | 5903.74994611258 | -295.749946112581 |
| 74 | 6030 | 5892.07911468166 | 137.920885318335 |
| 75 | 11976 | 6076.3484242121 | 5899.6515757879 |
| 76 | 7774 | 8924.50106838423 | -1150.50106838423 |
| 77 | 7906 | 8603.54406970094 | -697.544069700936 |
| 78 | 10940 | 8474.69506734609 | 2465.30493265391 |
| 79 | 7626 | 9796.63314097222 | -2170.63314097222 |
| 80 | 5930 | 9013.59314902605 | -3083.59314902605 |
| 81 | 6286 | 7776.42194045191 | -1490.42194045191 |
| 82 | 6788 | 7229.30221815909 | -441.302218159095 |
| 83 | 6932 | 7144.64081507343 | -212.640815073431 |
| 84 | 6660 | 7159.03868658976 | -499.038686589756 |
| 85 | 4910 | 7037.95542433678 | -2127.95542433678 |
| 86 | 4182 | 6156.899389104 | -1974.899389104 |
| 87 | 3550 | 5314.83068711697 | -1764.83068711697 |
| 88 | 3184 | 4540.36991202833 | -1356.36991202833 |
| 89 | 3872 | 3928.3025848571 | -56.3025848571028 |
| 90 | 3226 | 3896.62570734209 | -670.625707342092 |
| 91 | 2504 | 3580.30206525094 | -1076.30206525094 |
| 92 | 3648 | 3066.56521344436 | 581.434786555644 |
| 93 | 4448 | 3302.63146344802 | 1145.36853655198 |
| 94 | 2954 | 3807.89370657142 | -853.893706571423 |
| 95 | 3842 | 3406.60318236097 | 435.396817639025 |
| 96 | 3982 | 3588.21496897978 | 393.785031020218 |
| 97 | 4864 | 3757.0933745187 | 1106.9066254813 |
| 98 | 6796 | 4261.2928138723 | 2534.7071861277 |
| 99 | 5844 | 5441.6142526944 | 402.385747305599 |
| 100 | 5656 | 5674.62301692708 | -18.623016927083 |
| 101 | 6118 | 5719.13096603943 | 398.869033960575 |
| 102 | 7068 | 5956.2359372968 | 1111.7640627032 |
| 103 | 7696 | 6528.63306147349 | 1167.36693852651 |
| 104 | 7016 | 7143.29124193513 | -127.291241935127 |
| 105 | 5820 | 7177.24038485194 | -1357.24038485194 |
| 106 | 4904 | 6641.07515071245 | -1737.07515071245 |
| 107 | 3860 | 5909.19952659865 | -2049.19952659865 |
| 108 | 7222 | 5007.2323114299 | 2214.7676885701 |
| 109 | 7738 | 6044.60159712304 | 1693.39840287696 |
| 110 | 7142 | 6874.12286427411 | 267.877135725892 |
| 111 | 13804 | 7070.32016084849 | 6733.67983915151 |
| 112 | 7964 | 10257.6080851657 | -2293.60808516569 |
| 113 | 9716 | 9374.81465400576 | 341.185345994245 |
| 114 | 8462 | 9675.06205123911 | -1213.06205123911 |
| 115 | 6884 | 9262.35820009294 | -2378.35820009294 |
| 116 | 8072 | 8293.22269122668 | -221.222691226678 |
| 117 | 7320 | 8285.19430364346 | -965.19430364346 |
| 118 | 11700 | 7930.165109335 | 3769.834890665 |
| 119 | 10792 | 9748.25511450108 | 1043.74488549892 |
| 120 | 10930 | 10363.1333156008 | 566.86668439917 |
| 121 | 7112 | 10773.2608598083 | -3661.2608598083 |
| 122 | 8196 | 9238.51165314859 | -1042.51165314859 |
| 123 | 16818 | 8859.00306809796 | 7958.99693190204 |
| 124 | 10524 | 12622.5062388862 | -2098.50623888619 |
| 125 | 14878 | 11858.2512983399 | 3019.7487016601 |
| 126 | 13696 | 13427.2650755568 | 268.734924443166 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 13770.3708933706 | 10233.7268190544 | 17307.0149676869 |
| 128 | 13993.3315963267 | 10097.514347541 | 17889.1488451124 |
| 129 | 14216.2922992827 | 9971.06038185663 | 18461.5242167088 |
| 130 | 14439.2530022388 | 9851.52845840803 | 19026.9775460695 |
| 131 | 14662.2137051948 | 9736.90979586937 | 19587.5176145202 |
| 132 | 14885.1744081508 | 9625.72961316906 | 20144.6192031326 |
| 133 | 15108.1351111069 | 9516.87420339743 | 20699.3960188163 |
| 134 | 15331.0958140629 | 9409.48330138088 | 21252.708326745 |
| 135 | 15554.056517019 | 9302.88003738267 | 21805.2329966553 |
| 136 | 15777.017219975 | 9196.52365057037 | 22357.5107893796 |
| 137 | 15999.977922931 | 9089.97657315657 | 22909.9792727055 |
| 138 | 16222.9386258871 | 8982.88091330184 | 23462.9963384723 |
| 139 | 16445.8993288431 | 8874.94127247435 | 24016.8573852119 |
| 140 | 16668.8600317992 | 8765.911944259 | 24571.8081193393 |
| 141 | 16891.8207347552 | 8655.5872131737 | 25128.0542563367 |
| 142 | 17114.7814377113 | 8543.79389101751 | 25685.768984405 |
| 143 | 17337.7421406673 | 8430.38549706632 | 26245.0987842683 |
| 144 | 17560.7028436233 | 8315.23766519817 | 26806.1680220485 |
