| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.462005621612651 |
| beta | 0.00478961576064138 |
| gamma | 0.28415857245498 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 918 | 1032.70405982906 | -114.70405982906 |
| 14 | 776 | 815.159116052371 | -39.1591160523712 |
| 15 | 1348 | 1309.84637520805 | 38.1536247919539 |
| 16 | 502 | 392.003649385663 | 109.996350614337 |
| 17 | 1274 | 1252.17940325781 | 21.8205967421914 |
| 18 | 1638 | 1703.66574840923 | -65.6657484092341 |
| 19 | 912 | 748.670936520591 | 163.329063479409 |
| 20 | 1250 | 882.334434399282 | 367.665565600718 |
| 21 | 1614 | 884.299459467439 | 729.700540532561 |
| 22 | 2840 | 2300.72471432207 | 539.27528567793 |
| 23 | 1150 | 4113.36575514734 | -2963.36575514734 |
| 24 | 1652 | 1030.04285506744 | 621.957144932559 |
| 25 | 1526 | 812.500110072785 | 713.499889927215 |
| 26 | 1412 | 989.663933790591 | 422.336066209409 |
| 27 | 882 | 1710.92991171395 | -828.929911713951 |
| 28 | 848 | 403.100127430847 | 444.899872569153 |
| 29 | 820 | 1404.89174589387 | -584.891745893874 |
| 30 | 1226 | 1561.72497573309 | -335.724975733092 |
| 31 | 1212 | 515.397368364639 | 696.602631635361 |
| 32 | 2110 | 926.282725009162 | 1183.71727499084 |
| 33 | 1178 | 1362.02874969707 | -184.028749697072 |
| 34 | 2548 | 2326.58677875531 | 221.413221244689 |
| 35 | 1568 | 3455.59387228484 | -1887.59387228484 |
| 36 | 2088 | 1418.46179486756 | 669.538205132441 |
| 37 | 2178 | 1238.07108345007 | 939.928916549926 |
| 38 | 3016 | 1477.01021529963 | 1538.98978470037 |
| 39 | 5514 | 2527.03497481527 | 2986.96502518473 |
| 40 | 1358 | 3189.49833260485 | -1831.49833260485 |
| 41 | 3604 | 2989.70436410023 | 614.295635899773 |
| 42 | 1962 | 3748.86736119174 | -1786.86736119174 |
| 43 | 2036 | 2196.91741153046 | -160.91741153046 |
| 44 | 2246 | 2291.18991811175 | -45.1899181117474 |
| 45 | 3434 | 1952.4576296755 | 1481.5423703245 |
| 46 | 4316 | 3754.56560452808 | 561.434395471918 |
| 47 | 3032 | 4725.06532858585 | -1693.06532858585 |
| 48 | 5296 | 3175.97728692606 | 2120.02271307394 |
| 49 | 3850 | 3717.51178169594 | 132.488218304063 |
| 50 | 2098 | 3683.66093783434 | -1585.66093783434 |
| 51 | 3992 | 3513.1957362189 | 478.804263781097 |
| 52 | 4860 | 2276.45455029466 | 2583.54544970534 |
| 53 | 7336 | 4496.31372500209 | 2839.68627499791 |
| 54 | 9614 | 5927.44020409248 | 3686.55979590752 |
| 55 | 2988 | 7175.82439683272 | -4187.82439683272 |
| 56 | 2756 | 5441.43606950239 | -2685.43606950239 |
| 57 | 3540 | 4124.55399964054 | -584.553999640535 |
| 58 | 2710 | 4835.13824728581 | -2125.13824728581 |
| 59 | 3730 | 4217.50969893027 | -487.509698930266 |
| 60 | 3508 | 3808.73303098558 | -300.733030985576 |
| 61 | 2640 | 2923.07162449983 | -283.071624499828 |
| 62 | 2788 | 2428.69957128986 | 359.300428710138 |
| 63 | 3502 | 3470.86096950166 | 31.1390304983361 |
| 64 | 3700 | 2346.50605695238 | 1353.49394304762 |
| 65 | 3250 | 4031.95665326572 | -781.95665326572 |
| 66 | 4866 | 3906.04047755828 | 959.959522441719 |
| 67 | 2836 | 2671.59474757402 | 164.405252425985 |
| 68 | 3498 | 3167.94725720197 | 330.052742798026 |
| 69 | 3468 | 3562.39216384818 | -94.3921638481752 |
| 70 | 3924 | 4261.98100766544 | -337.981007665442 |
| 71 | 5738 | 4722.40244953545 | 1015.59755046455 |
| 72 | 7028 | 5041.96918151011 | 1986.03081848989 |
| 73 | 5608 | 5225.91153145024 | 382.088468549758 |
| 74 | 6030 | 5148.92815548913 | 881.071844510874 |
| 75 | 11976 | 6395.01545223562 | 5580.98454776438 |
| 76 | 7774 | 8062.18966073293 | -288.189660732929 |
| 77 | 7906 | 8684.3952424762 | -778.395242476203 |
| 78 | 10940 | 8848.10959450513 | 2091.89040549487 |
| 79 | 7626 | 8039.19459410073 | -413.194594100725 |
| 80 | 5930 | 8316.93130194462 | -2386.93130194462 |
| 81 | 6286 | 7408.12986140428 | -1122.12986140428 |
| 82 | 6788 | 7610.28795836013 | -822.28795836013 |
| 83 | 6932 | 8067.44313254427 | -1135.44313254427 |
| 84 | 6660 | 7550.36974669222 | -890.369746692218 |
| 85 | 4910 | 6162.62713967292 | -1252.62713967292 |
| 86 | 4182 | 5405.49316336547 | -1223.49316336547 |
| 87 | 3550 | 6391.91982516595 | -2841.91982516595 |
| 88 | 3184 | 3245.92992852962 | -61.9299285296192 |
| 89 | 3872 | 3873.74819051467 | -1.7481905146692 |
| 90 | 3226 | 4812.8133439994 | -1586.8133439994 |
| 91 | 2504 | 1890.94805596094 | 613.051944039058 |
| 92 | 3648 | 2312.94911676117 | 1335.05088323883 |
| 93 | 4448 | 3297.18699765989 | 1150.81300234011 |
| 94 | 2954 | 4580.43085961313 | -1626.43085961313 |
| 95 | 3842 | 4601.54907992329 | -759.549079923286 |
| 96 | 3982 | 4279.79382600968 | -297.793826009681 |
| 97 | 4864 | 3095.94273471474 | 1768.05726528526 |
| 98 | 6796 | 3731.01853828143 | 3064.98146171857 |
| 99 | 5844 | 6452.99884162293 | -608.998841622925 |
| 100 | 5656 | 4770.23739609024 | 885.762603909765 |
| 101 | 6118 | 5853.80580592505 | 264.19419407495 |
| 102 | 7068 | 6682.71889739542 | 385.281102604582 |
| 103 | 7696 | 5021.94124567867 | 2674.05875432133 |
| 104 | 7016 | 6524.7387370381 | 491.261262961898 |
| 105 | 5820 | 7107.33200402712 | -1287.33200402712 |
| 106 | 4904 | 6850.52725969081 | -1946.52725969081 |
| 107 | 3860 | 6866.53722932003 | -3006.53722932003 |
| 108 | 7222 | 5582.53269573562 | 1639.46730426438 |
| 109 | 7738 | 5619.09313995268 | 2118.90686004732 |
| 110 | 7142 | 6624.87555324459 | 517.124446755414 |
| 111 | 13804 | 7612.77516691591 | 6191.22483308409 |
| 112 | 7964 | 9320.02168473996 | -1356.02168473996 |
| 113 | 9716 | 9287.64342313109 | 428.356576868908 |
| 114 | 8462 | 10226.0679564735 | -1764.06795647347 |
| 115 | 6884 | 7932.57758330639 | -1048.57758330639 |
| 116 | 8072 | 7383.96198178738 | 688.038018212618 |
| 117 | 7320 | 7788.16148124592 | -468.161481245922 |
| 118 | 11700 | 7813.45384430559 | 3886.54615569441 |
| 119 | 10792 | 10379.6450045191 | 412.354995480926 |
| 120 | 10930 | 11410.3328495503 | -480.332849550297 |
| 121 | 7112 | 10561.0213027565 | -3449.02130275652 |
| 122 | 8196 | 8757.38803000878 | -561.388030008777 |
| 123 | 16818 | 10119.9264602065 | 6698.07353979349 |
| 124 | 10524 | 10914.1562880276 | -390.156288027589 |
| 125 | 14878 | 11609.5457290449 | 3268.45427095509 |
| 126 | 13696 | 13539.9719053958 | 156.028094604215 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 12262.2356584672 | 8800.01777609499 | 15724.4535408395 |
| 128 | 12485.1533239795 | 8668.0698531111 | 16302.2367948479 |
| 129 | 12414.7962336008 | 8270.16291544401 | 16559.4295517575 |
| 130 | 13343.2225030747 | 8892.30715775828 | 17794.137848391 |
| 131 | 13595.1993995672 | 8855.13296309919 | 18335.2658360351 |
| 132 | 14310.5055201181 | 9295.44321085346 | 19325.5678293828 |
| 133 | 13241.9318698646 | 7963.80481254925 | 18520.0589271799 |
| 134 | 13493.508712116 | 7962.53474588181 | 19024.4826783503 |
| 135 | 16246.7430828972 | 10471.7876109687 | 22021.6985548258 |
| 136 | 12869.5215275005 | 6858.36060078149 | 18880.6824542196 |
| 137 | 14312.0558656453 | 8071.57308315233 | 20552.5386481382 |
| 138 | 14256.968682689 | 7793.30585819492 | 20720.6315071832 |
| 139 | 12883.2936724711 | 6048.76079277253 | 19717.8265521697 |
| 140 | 13106.2113379834 | 6063.62745394777 | 20148.7952220191 |
| 141 | 13035.8542476047 | 5789.39096576597 | 20282.3175294433 |
| 142 | 13964.2805170786 | 6517.75890838671 | 21410.8021257704 |
| 143 | 14216.257413571 | 6573.19081202468 | 21859.3240151174 |
| 144 | 14931.563534122 | 7095.19342374101 | 22767.933644503 |
