| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.430444482025788 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 1384 | 990 | 394 |
| 3 | 1350 | 1159.59512591816 | 190.40487408184 |
| 4 | 716 | 1241.5538533175 | -525.553853317503 |
| 5 | 2068 | 1015.33209714959 | 1052.66790285041 |
| 6 | 1392 | 1468.44718733721 | -76.447187337209 |
| 7 | 734 | 1435.54091738152 | -701.540917381516 |
| 8 | 758 | 1133.56650057933 | -375.566500579333 |
| 9 | 558 | 971.905972771224 | -413.905972771224 |
| 10 | 1620 | 793.742430714335 | 826.257569285665 |
| 11 | 3132 | 1149.40044214539 | 1982.59955785461 |
| 12 | 1392 | 2002.79948189067 | -610.799481890673 |
| 13 | 918 | 1739.88421528662 | -821.884215286623 |
| 14 | 776 | 1386.1086899524 | -610.108689952401 |
| 15 | 1348 | 1123.49077092641 | 224.509229073592 |
| 16 | 502 | 1220.129529745 | -718.129529744999 |
| 17 | 1274 | 911.014636286491 | 362.985363713509 |
| 18 | 1638 | 1067.25968315309 | 570.740316846906 |
| 19 | 912 | 1312.93170320949 | -400.931703209495 |
| 20 | 1250 | 1140.35286389377 | 109.647136106233 |
| 21 | 1614 | 1187.54986860063 | 426.450131399375 |
| 22 | 2840 | 1371.11297452066 | 1468.88702547934 |
| 23 | 1150 | 2003.38728935751 | -853.387289357514 |
| 24 | 1652 | 1636.05143962263 | 15.9485603773724 |
| 25 | 1526 | 1642.91640943332 | -116.916409433323 |
| 26 | 1412 | 1592.59038613448 | -180.590386134481 |
| 27 | 882 | 1514.85625091599 | -632.856250915987 |
| 28 | 848 | 1242.44676979367 | -394.446769793673 |
| 29 | 820 | 1072.65933428309 | -252.65933428309 |
| 30 | 1226 | 963.903518008625 | 262.096481991375 |
| 31 | 1212 | 1076.72150244018 | 135.278497559816 |
| 32 | 2110 | 1134.95138525155 | 975.048614748454 |
| 33 | 1178 | 1554.65568117691 | -376.655681176906 |
| 34 | 2548 | 1392.52632159064 | 1155.47367840936 |
| 35 | 1568 | 1889.89359058799 | -321.89359058799 |
| 36 | 2088 | 1751.33627071992 | 336.663729280078 |
| 37 | 2178 | 1896.25131528676 | 281.748684713245 |
| 38 | 3016 | 2017.52848193959 | 998.471518060405 |
| 39 | 5514 | 2447.31503734861 | 3066.68496265139 |
| 40 | 1358 | 3767.35265763336 | -2409.35265763336 |
| 41 | 3604 | 2730.26010090091 | 873.739899099088 |
| 42 | 1962 | 3106.35661919388 | -1144.35661919388 |
| 43 | 2036 | 2613.77462699219 | -577.77462699219 |
| 44 | 2246 | 2365.07472694889 | -119.074726948894 |
| 45 | 3434 | 2313.81966778502 | 1120.18033221498 |
| 46 | 4316 | 2795.99511066077 | 1520.00488933923 |
| 47 | 3032 | 3450.27282792906 | -418.27282792906 |
| 48 | 5296 | 3270.22959716567 | 2025.77040283433 |
| 49 | 3850 | 4142.21128891687 | -292.211288916867 |
| 50 | 2098 | 4016.43055201696 | -1918.43055201696 |
| 51 | 3992 | 3190.65270675157 | 801.347293248427 |
| 52 | 4860 | 3535.58822731666 | 1324.41177268334 |
| 53 | 7336 | 4105.67396679819 | 3230.32603320181 |
| 54 | 9614 | 5496.14998293416 | 4117.85001706584 |
| 55 | 2988 | 7268.65580058995 | -4280.65580058995 |
| 56 | 2756 | 5426.07113177432 | -2670.07113177432 |
| 57 | 3540 | 4276.75374648572 | -736.753746485717 |
| 58 | 2710 | 3959.62216169911 | -1249.62216169911 |
| 59 | 3730 | 3421.72919757859 | 308.270802421406 |
| 60 | 3508 | 3554.42266345055 | -46.4226634505499 |
| 61 | 2640 | 3534.44028412732 | -894.44028412732 |
| 62 | 2788 | 3149.43339932314 | -361.433399323138 |
| 63 | 3502 | 2993.85638696467 | 508.14361303533 |
| 64 | 3700 | 3212.58400127237 | 487.415998727625 |
| 65 | 3250 | 3422.38952837577 | -172.389528375769 |
| 66 | 4866 | 3348.18540712739 | 1517.81459287261 |
| 67 | 2836 | 4001.52032336762 | -1165.52032336762 |
| 68 | 3498 | 3499.82853148512 | -1.82853148511776 |
| 69 | 3468 | 3499.04145019714 | -31.0414501971381 |
| 70 | 3924 | 3485.6798292457 | 438.320170754298 |
| 71 | 5738 | 3674.35232810749 | 2063.64767189251 |
| 72 | 7028 | 4562.63808131898 | 2465.36191868102 |
| 73 | 5608 | 5623.83951541174 | -15.8395154117361 |
| 74 | 6030 | 5617.02148340479 | 412.978516595208 |
| 75 | 11976 | 5794.78580706839 | 6181.21419293161 |
| 76 | 7774 | 8455.45534863529 | -681.455348635287 |
| 77 | 7906 | 8162.12665406827 | -256.126654068268 |
| 78 | 10940 | 8051.87834912485 | 2888.12165087515 |
| 79 | 7626 | 9295.05437716327 | -1669.05437716327 |
| 80 | 5930 | 8576.61913031235 | -2646.61913031235 |
| 81 | 6286 | 7437.39652964551 | -1151.39652964551 |
| 82 | 6788 | 6941.78424683596 | -153.78424683596 |
| 83 | 6932 | 6875.58866636293 | 56.4113336370701 |
| 84 | 6660 | 6899.87061365072 | -239.870613650723 |
| 85 | 4910 | 6796.61963160463 | -1886.61963160463 |
| 86 | 4182 | 5984.53462149889 | -1802.53462149889 |
| 87 | 3550 | 5208.64354001425 | -1658.64354001425 |
| 88 | 3184 | 4494.6895805674 | -1310.6895805674 |
| 89 | 3872 | 3930.51048296347 | -58.5104829634683 |
| 90 | 3226 | 3905.32496843118 | -679.32496843118 |
| 91 | 2504 | 3612.91328426764 | -1108.91328426764 |
| 92 | 3648 | 3135.58768000954 | 512.412319990462 |
| 93 | 4448 | 3356.15273567147 | 1091.84726432853 |
| 94 | 2954 | 3826.13236581663 | -872.132365816635 |
| 95 | 3842 | 3450.72780135477 | 391.272198645232 |
| 96 | 3982 | 3619.14876023171 | 362.851239768294 |
| 97 | 4864 | 3775.33607418618 | 1088.66392581382 |
| 98 | 6796 | 4243.94545383327 | 2552.05454616673 |
| 99 | 5844 | 5342.46325105957 | 501.536748940434 |
| 100 | 5656 | 5558.34697717413 | 97.6530228258716 |
| 101 | 6118 | 5600.38118200266 | 517.618817997337 |
| 102 | 7068 | 5823.18734600233 | 1244.81265399767 |
| 103 | 7696 | 6359.0100840715 | 1336.9899159285 |
| 104 | 7016 | 6934.51001590705 | 81.4899840929547 |
| 105 | 5820 | 6969.58692990023 | -1149.58692990023 |
| 106 | 4904 | 6474.75357931571 | -1570.75357931571 |
| 107 | 3860 | 5798.63136847701 | -1938.63136847701 |
| 108 | 7222 | 4964.15819323398 | 2257.84180676602 |
| 109 | 7738 | 5936.03374024355 | 1801.96625975645 |
| 110 | 7142 | 6711.68017355236 | 430.31982644764 |
| 111 | 13804 | 6896.90896835304 | 6907.09103164696 |
| 112 | 7964 | 9870.02818977528 | -1906.02818977528 |
| 113 | 9716 | 9049.58887290091 | 666.411127099091 |
| 114 | 8462 | 9336.4418653213 | -874.4418653213 |
| 115 | 6884 | 8960.04318954141 | -2076.04318954141 |
| 116 | 8072 | 8066.42185415609 | 5.5781458439069 |
| 117 | 7320 | 8068.82293625454 | -748.822936254537 |
| 118 | 11700 | 7746.49623532942 | 3953.50376467058 |
| 119 | 10792 | 9448.26011550005 | 1343.73988449995 |
| 120 | 10930 | 10026.665534061 | 903.334465938977 |
| 121 | 7112 | 10415.5008703482 | -3303.50087034817 |
| 122 | 8196 | 8993.52714933941 | -797.527149339412 |
| 123 | 16818 | 8650.23598864051 | 8167.76401135949 |
| 124 | 10524 | 12166.004937819 | -1642.00493781901 |
| 125 | 14878 | 11459.2129728757 | 3418.78702712428 |
| 126 | 13696 | 12930.8109839227 | 765.189016077285 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 13260.1823735999 | 9813.51809973561 | 16706.8466474642 |
| 128 | 13260.1823735999 | 9507.77561138635 | 17012.5891358135 |
| 129 | 13260.1823735999 | 9225.13362525998 | 17295.2311219399 |
| 130 | 13260.1823735999 | 8961.03358647318 | 17559.3311607267 |
| 131 | 13260.1823735999 | 8712.24413894602 | 17808.1206082538 |
| 132 | 13260.1823735999 | 8476.37593117351 | 18043.9888160263 |
| 133 | 13260.1823735999 | 8251.60313683287 | 18268.761610367 |
| 134 | 13260.1823735999 | 8036.49326882468 | 18483.8714783752 |
| 135 | 13260.1823735999 | 7829.89787315971 | 18690.4668740401 |
| 136 | 13260.1823735999 | 7630.87942846589 | 18889.485318734 |
| 137 | 13260.1823735999 | 7438.66079067435 | 19081.7039565255 |
| 138 | 13260.1823735999 | 7252.58922552125 | 19267.7755216786 |
| 139 | 13260.1823735999 | 7072.11019195761 | 19448.2545552422 |
| 140 | 13260.1823735999 | 6896.74782788571 | 19623.6169193141 |
| 141 | 13260.1823735999 | 6726.09015585746 | 19794.2745913424 |
| 142 | 13260.1823735999 | 6559.77768415495 | 19960.5870630449 |
| 143 | 13260.1823735999 | 6397.49449677573 | 20122.8702504241 |
| 144 | 13260.1823735999 | 6238.96119868432 | 20281.4035485155 |
