Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 3228 | 3228 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 3480.8 | 3436.21235741355 | 53.4848664835118 | 44.5876425864462 | 1.6511444710944 |
3 | 3621.8 | 3536.64959200489 | 63.3816620062356 | 85.1504079951089 | 1.33005556221672 |
4 | 3667.6 | 3607.83084860673 | 64.5911194331558 | 59.7691513932729 | 0.266026767771487 |
5 | 3458.4 | 3645.52649830643 | 62.7308202977208 | -187.126498306435 | -0.921713172392771 |
6 | 3594.2 | 3623.21545100102 | 50.9125018829873 | -29.0154510010249 | -2.64483715560918 |
7 | 3780.8 | 3677.35440311352 | 51.4381177219266 | 103.445596886481 | 0.0971979117000578 |
8 | 3807.8 | 3729.52745202599 | 51.5530517016248 | 78.272547974009 | 0.022912026721026 |
9 | 3595.4 | 3760.99837409787 | 48.6004944932617 | -165.598374097866 | -0.628061828524111 |
10 | 3798 | 3818.33676614353 | 49.9396181541766 | -20.3367661435345 | 0.270525666672769 |
11 | 3966 | 3864.80695905591 | 49.3886522145533 | 101.193040944094 | -0.106427875329824 |
12 | 3985.4 | 3905.2582584114 | 47.9677079132246 | 80.1417415885982 | -0.275018663132168 |
13 | 3755.4 | 3935.54560020854 | 45.1766469452863 | -180.145600208539 | -0.544692948915019 |
14 | 3972 | 3984.12641471334 | 45.7159835014382 | -12.1264147133407 | 0.104748511064367 |
15 | 4189.6 | 4060.85031549014 | 50.6579975501294 | 128.749684509857 | 0.952654440279375 |
16 | 4142.8 | 4082.22815389653 | 45.9842296643282 | 60.5718461034685 | -0.89959365613178 |
Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
1 | 3945.974270028 | 4126.02494454367 | -180.050674515676 |
2 | 4147.27204014317 | 4170.20418902846 | -22.9321488852916 |
3 | 4356.4119569731 | 4214.38343351325 | 142.028523459853 |
4 | 4319.51697793915 | 4258.56267799803 | 60.9542999411146 |
5 | 4122.69124796714 | 4302.74192248282 | -180.050674515676 |
6 | 4323.98901808231 | 4346.92116696761 | -22.9321488852916 |
7 | 4533.12893491225 | 4391.10041145239 | 142.028523459853 |
8 | 4496.2339558783 | 4435.27965593718 | 60.9542999411146 |
9 | 4299.40822590629 | 4479.45890042197 | -180.050674515676 |
10 | 4500.70599602146 | 4523.63814490675 | -22.9321488852916 |
11 | 4709.8459128514 | 4567.81738939154 | 142.028523459853 |
12 | 4672.95093381744 | 4611.99663387633 | 60.9542999411146 |
13 | 4476.12520384544 | 4656.17587836112 | -180.050674515676 |
14 | 4677.42297396061 | 4700.3551228459 | -22.9321488852916 |
15 | 4886.56289079054 | 4744.53436733069 | 142.028523459853 |
16 | 4849.66791175659 | 4788.71361181548 | 60.9542999411146 |
17 | 4652.84218178459 | 4832.89285630026 | -180.050674515676 |
18 | 4854.13995189976 | 4877.07210078505 | -22.9321488852916 |