| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.937721786399397 |
| beta | 0.252166254290168 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 6920 | 7695 | -775 |
| 4 | 6955 | 7090.00772794744 | -135.007727947436 |
| 5 | 6965 | 7053.22598345177 | -88.2259834517708 |
| 6 | 6990 | 7039.45042596489 | -49.4504259648929 |
| 7 | 7080 | 7050.34241725144 | 29.6575827485649 |
| 8 | 7030 | 7142.42859690419 | -112.428596904186 |
| 9 | 7090 | 7074.69240302938 | 15.3075969706233 |
| 10 | 7035 | 7130.35688284976 | -95.356882849761 |
| 11 | 6960 | 7059.70060971233 | -99.7006097123322 |
| 12 | 7035 | 6961.3957445809 | 73.6042554190954 |
| 13 | 6845 | 7043.00722119282 | -198.00722119282 |
| 14 | 6970 | 6823.10155670581 | 146.89844329419 |
| 15 | 6885 | 6961.35731697541 | -76.3573169754081 |
| 16 | 6935 | 6872.20569901564 | 62.7943009843566 |
| 17 | 6480 | 6928.38803766983 | -448.38803766983 |
| 18 | 6340 | 6399.19692234493 | -59.1969223449305 |
| 19 | 6200 | 6220.96098468689 | -20.9609846868934 |
| 20 | 5990 | 6073.6232468257 | -83.623246825704 |
| 21 | 5920 | 5847.75203790485 | 72.2479620951499 |
| 22 | 5750 | 5785.12853993434 | -35.1285399343433 |
| 23 | 5675 | 5613.50919921491 | 61.490800785089 |
| 24 | 5890 | 5547.03214412503 | 342.967855874969 |
| 25 | 5655 | 5825.60104922894 | -170.601049228936 |
| 26 | 5515 | 5582.24457364756 | -67.2445736475602 |
| 27 | 5585 | 5419.90694470205 | 165.093055297954 |
| 28 | 5630 | 5514.47557166451 | 115.524428335485 |
| 29 | 5720 | 5589.87973036644 | 130.120269633558 |
| 30 | 5650 | 5709.73919937483 | -59.7391993748279 |
| 31 | 5645 | 5637.43726989605 | 7.56273010395125 |
| 32 | 5735 | 5630.03412265725 | 104.965877342749 |
| 33 | 5680 | 5738.78844793999 | -58.78844793999 |
| 34 | 5620 | 5680.08555313074 | -60.0855531307379 |
| 35 | 5525 | 5605.95839705184 | -80.9583970518397 |
| 36 | 5500 | 5493.11475296577 | 6.88524703423172 |
| 37 | 5545 | 5464.27210557727 | 80.7278944227255 |
| 38 | 5430 | 5523.76237986424 | -93.7623798642408 |
| 39 | 5290 | 5397.45810221865 | -107.458102218652 |
| 40 | 5235 | 5232.90131209267 | 2.09868790733435 |
| 41 | 5085 | 5171.57457041595 | -86.5745704159526 |
| 42 | 4885 | 5006.62540461111 | -121.625404611113 |
| 43 | 5120 | 4780.04854701235 | 339.951452987652 |
| 44 | 5030 | 5066.68789411875 | -36.6878941187479 |
| 45 | 4860 | 4991.46903469734 | -131.469034697343 |
| 46 | 4915 | 4796.28443148331 | 118.715568516691 |
| 47 | 5030 | 4863.77507720963 | 166.224922790366 |
| 48 | 5115 | 5015.12212235535 | 99.8778776446534 |
| 49 | 4880 | 5127.87139957817 | -247.871399578165 |
| 50 | 4780 | 4855.91648840073 | -75.9164884007314 |
| 51 | 4765 | 4727.2560949414 | 37.7439050586036 |
| 52 | 4815 | 4714.10252004806 | 100.897479951939 |
| 53 | 4980 | 4784.0278269818 | 195.972173018204 |
| 54 | 5050 | 4989.44667584782 | 60.5533241521807 |
| 55 | 5280 | 5082.19886728932 | 197.801132710677 |
| 56 | 5040 | 5350.42372894405 | -310.423728944047 |
| 57 | 4980 | 5068.67171469333 | -88.6717146933324 |
| 58 | 5025 | 4973.89392296546 | 51.1060770345412 |
| 59 | 5175 | 5022.2734462737 | 152.726553726303 |
| 60 | 5205 | 5202.05869886234 | 2.9413011376555 |
| 61 | 5155 | 5242.08256215052 | -87.0825621505219 |
| 62 | 4995 | 5177.09738897509 | -182.097388975091 |
| 63 | 5035 | 4979.95566802332 | 55.04433197668 |
| 64 | 5005 | 5018.20278656519 | -13.2027865651935 |
| 65 | 4975 | 4989.33114064133 | -14.3311406413331 |
| 66 | 4940 | 4956.01264534237 | -16.01264534237 |
| 67 | 5015 | 4917.33098766393 | 97.6690123360695 |
| 68 | 4920 | 5008.34608663231 | -88.346086632313 |
| 69 | 4950 | 4904.04030087513 | 45.9596991248736 |
| 70 | 4930 | 4936.54368920522 | -6.54368920521574 |
| 71 | 4905 | 4918.26617397283 | -13.2661739728264 |
| 72 | 5015 | 4890.54789506517 | 124.452104934827 |
| 73 | 5010 | 5021.3992142319 | -11.3992142318966 |
| 74 | 5045 | 5022.16431309797 | 22.8356869020272 |
| 75 | 5000 | 5060.4319920234 | -60.4319920234002 |
| 76 | 5060 | 5006.32789728368 | 53.6721027163239 |
| 77 | 4950 | 5071.91309960389 | -121.913099603895 |
| 78 | 4995 | 4944.02044252835 | 50.9795574716481 |
| 79 | 4975 | 4990.30771413674 | -15.3077141367439 |
| 80 | 4930 | 4970.81627750461 | -40.8162775046139 |
| 81 | 5000 | 4917.75341520474 | 82.2465847952617 |
| 82 | 4955 | 4999.5374546786 | -44.5374546786043 |
| 83 | 4900 | 4951.90193189505 | -51.9019318950459 |
| 84 | 4910 | 4885.08775463685 | 24.9122453631462 |
| 85 | 4940 | 4896.19469904053 | 43.8053009594705 |
| 86 | 4945 | 4935.37635318429 | 9.62364681571307 |
| 87 | 4975 | 4944.78075029891 | 30.2192497010938 |
| 88 | 4900 | 4980.64379083333 | -80.6437908333301 |
| 89 | 4950 | 4893.47896778362 | 56.5210322163848 |
| 90 | 4865 | 4948.30165211079 | -83.3016521107884 |
| 91 | 4870 | 4852.31190130658 | 17.6880986934202 |
| 92 | 4785 | 4855.20499952109 | -70.2049995210946 |
| 93 | 4715 | 4759.07802478094 | -44.0780247809362 |
| 94 | 4630 | 4677.02811480846 | -47.0281148084568 |
| 95 | 4515 | 4581.09148891658 | -66.0914889165824 |
| 96 | 4510 | 4451.650609999 | 58.3493900009962 |
| 97 | 4485 | 4452.698055592 | 32.3019444080028 |
| 98 | 4470 | 4436.95841958188 | 33.0415804181175 |
| 99 | 4385 | 4429.72542763718 | -44.7254276371787 |
| 100 | 4310 | 4338.99276327853 | -28.9927632785284 |
| 101 | 4370 | 4256.15728033237 | 113.842719667627 |
| 102 | 4425 | 4334.18119493717 | 90.8188050628278 |
| 103 | 4460 | 4412.09026045987 | 47.9097395401332 |
| 104 | 4430 | 4461.09138319919 | -31.091383199192 |
| 105 | 4360 | 4428.65950785722 | -68.6595078572209 |
| 106 | 4320 | 4344.76383339042 | -24.7638333904197 |
| 107 | 4370 | 4296.17438881811 | 73.8256111818873 |
| 108 | 4370 | 4357.49135053086 | 12.5086494691377 |
| 109 | 4305 | 4364.26787901924 | -59.2678790192404 |
| 110 | 4255 | 4289.72340420332 | -34.7234042033233 |
| 111 | 4310 | 4229.98405982984 | 80.0159401701576 |
| 112 | 4375 | 4296.75901090914 | 78.2409890908566 |
| 113 | 4365 | 4380.37055605802 | -15.3705560580156 |
| 114 | 4400 | 4372.5659666567 | 27.4340333432974 |
| 115 | 4385 | 4411.3872739383 | -26.3872739383005 |
| 116 | 4305 | 4393.4995867691 | -88.4995867690968 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 117 | 4296.44105991395 | 4040.3966696281 | 4552.4854501998 |
| 118 | 4282.37052365952 | 3887.47178447777 | 4677.26926284128 |
| 119 | 4268.2999874051 | 3733.13490549373 | 4803.46506931647 |
| 120 | 4254.22945115068 | 3572.863171617 | 4935.59573068436 |
| 121 | 4240.15891489626 | 3405.38267829656 | 5074.93515149595 |
| 122 | 4226.08837864183 | 3230.34390095979 | 5221.83285632388 |
| 123 | 4212.01784238741 | 3047.73332783227 | 5376.30235694255 |
| 124 | 4197.94730613299 | 2857.6724133567 | 5538.22219890927 |
| 125 | 4183.87676987856 | 2660.33698963842 | 5707.41655011871 |
| 126 | 4169.80623362414 | 2455.9218217821 | 5883.69064546618 |
| 127 | 4155.73569736972 | 2244.62422527595 | 6066.84716946349 |
| 128 | 4141.66516111529 | 2026.63640674026 | 6256.69391549032 |
