| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 7085 | 7085 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 7390 | 7357.59166087158 | 16.0368076261259 | 15.6220781474457 | 1.74199075449272 |
| 3 | 6920 | 6971.03160579652 | 7.91489411850354 | 10.5466717350277 | -4.13842512652645 |
| 4 | 6955 | 6949.24160330848 | 7.36709572113128 | 10.3598902412628 | -0.30671492819375 |
| 5 | 6965 | 6954.91115471821 | 7.330302071784 | 10.3508394204926 | -0.0174840598786491 |
| 6 | 6990 | 6977.26466333337 | 7.71190096837836 | 10.4271990850377 | 0.154319401661687 |
| 7 | 7080 | 7058.03824144431 | 9.83119663355561 | 10.7864464168205 | 0.74855599577671 |
| 8 | 7030 | 7025.81832589967 | 8.46869418325833 | 10.5866045778633 | -0.429777659528212 |
| 9 | 7090 | 7073.31391887429 | 9.85667922075093 | 10.7653408610057 | 0.39794419240008 |
| 10 | 7035 | 7032.1679859581 | 7.89338851089347 | 10.5409102970774 | -0.518925657883647 |
| 11 | 6960 | 6961.60716342979 | 4.66188022703071 | 10.2101368317636 | -0.796613479111079 |
| 12 | 7035 | 7016.97256107281 | 6.87546523430524 | 10.414432309105 | 0.513868792813486 |
| 13 | 6845 | 6986.06442355413 | 6.6477323243182 | -135.455278835322 | -0.462313427563066 |
| 14 | 6970 | 6961.82107098105 | 4.71940590612355 | 11.5189689517233 | -0.263324786158686 |
| 15 | 6885 | 6885.81768097227 | 0.642757087852432 | 11.1252796569653 | -0.81162453597113 |
| 16 | 6935 | 6918.98172182403 | 2.28422215986202 | 11.188305573767 | 0.327272853759058 |
| 17 | 6480 | 6527.7312633351 | -18.1180488702243 | 10.6089594948918 | -3.95539917042116 |
| 18 | 6340 | 6352.80535690564 | -26.4683226829808 | 10.3983028552442 | -1.57435003074351 |
| 19 | 6200 | 6207.3324308313 | -32.9580218503191 | 10.2480534525228 | -1.19364378322145 |
| 20 | 5990 | 6004.94594834283 | -42.3915425216243 | 10.0463478678526 | -1.69792499606465 |
| 21 | 5920 | 5916.75229145296 | -44.9884025972717 | 9.99495358669492 | -0.458646586283068 |
| 22 | 5750 | 5757.01082445332 | -51.5983690772744 | 9.87369409964576 | -1.14829418809094 |
| 23 | 5675 | 5670.31926610772 | -53.6479057370195 | 9.83880151855831 | -0.350946031949229 |
| 24 | 5890 | 5846.23644154103 | -40.0780577539985 | 10.0534110210871 | 2.29446375609537 |
| 25 | 5655 | 5777.50223424036 | -41.5069458973589 | -118.361467893246 | -0.315548712344225 |
| 26 | 5515 | 5532.30744206252 | -54.804753565454 | 7.42718341497156 | -1.84325984982171 |
| 27 | 5585 | 5564.6159204477 | -49.4653816297797 | 7.65419483111778 | 0.868927229159531 |
| 28 | 5630 | 5608.59868853815 | -43.7499080933936 | 7.71944035053384 | 0.932351109228647 |
| 29 | 5720 | 5693.41403552974 | -35.8459657665712 | 7.77314377746084 | 1.28215772096237 |
| 30 | 5650 | 5644.18855924321 | -36.6729711954805 | 7.76833533702119 | -0.133392838254037 |
| 31 | 5645 | 5633.43376382834 | -35.0631605936513 | 7.77695176139101 | 0.258340964582831 |
| 32 | 5735 | 5710.76206221084 | -28.0526889420501 | 7.81189380109105 | 1.12003543595159 |
| 33 | 5680 | 5673.53168369971 | -28.6272804759106 | 7.80922175462226 | -0.0914433318252444 |
| 34 | 5620 | 5616.3668888299 | -30.4197458936124 | 7.80144082349718 | -0.284291781423403 |
| 35 | 5525 | 5525.97201919561 | -34.1975284505634 | 7.7861291116017 | -0.597388648717633 |
| 36 | 5500 | 5492.15781451969 | -34.1733233170023 | 7.78622073054779 | 0.00381765287213953 |
| 37 | 5545 | 5588.10948202093 | -26.3532806347211 | -61.8340567615951 | 1.38428573266446 |
| 38 | 5430 | 5441.24122688945 | -34.1887849614235 | 4.17551386142571 | -1.12039973686869 |
| 39 | 5290 | 5301.40362894069 | -40.9176210031557 | 3.99479872241816 | -1.05186140264434 |
| 40 | 5235 | 5234.76586285329 | -42.5535487206193 | 3.98710072292328 | -0.256080079862701 |
| 41 | 5085 | 5095.17844439998 | -48.7311087097053 | 3.97708180854997 | -0.965902300899012 |
| 42 | 4885 | 4902.09009962796 | -57.9314431409634 | 3.96660748511768 | -1.436858414956 |
| 43 | 5120 | 5081.41378459428 | -42.7955364521089 | 3.98193675690803 | 2.36139297607992 |
| 44 | 5030 | 5027.62238027176 | -43.497635428104 | 3.98127702626533 | -0.109436748747025 |
| 45 | 4860 | 4872.3285023727 | -50.6413642856689 | 3.97500925134876 | -1.11261341448119 |
| 46 | 4915 | 4899.65177978143 | -45.6561596563443 | 3.97909727800784 | 0.775890039566038 |
| 47 | 5030 | 5004.12251503687 | -36.0512088713996 | 3.98646012011855 | 1.49399150294549 |
| 48 | 5115 | 5092.81839349575 | -28.0659915765147 | 3.99218256756382 | 1.24139129392952 |
| 49 | 4880 | 4954.93819929577 | -34.9649380940032 | -59.1208648624579 | -1.14906902960057 |
| 50 | 4780 | 4792.60847172183 | -43.185640776034 | 4.16493430782279 | -1.20208154701803 |
| 51 | 4765 | 4759.37267814811 | -42.5474450285246 | 4.17766081066475 | 0.0990233309149672 |
| 52 | 4815 | 4798.84978842247 | -37.2889333680395 | 4.19058648125316 | 0.816272123115836 |
| 53 | 4980 | 4948.54836366241 | -25.2995219944271 | 4.19174838911272 | 1.86054392661854 |
| 54 | 5050 | 5030.2161052644 | -18.4394407143963 | 4.19031611811468 | 1.0643027108682 |
| 55 | 5280 | 5242.21998016218 | -3.65758976939145 | 4.18682852679195 | 2.29283970198576 |
| 56 | 5040 | 5061.60627886823 | -15.0104806850039 | 4.18939593730917 | -1.76064574756114 |
| 57 | 4980 | 4984.81562890088 | -18.9746914828294 | 4.19023717256041 | -0.614685397870315 |
| 58 | 5025 | 5013.81686002876 | -15.8958354264964 | 4.18962594087726 | 0.477336774637247 |
| 59 | 5175 | 5148.81617356266 | -6.21099604467576 | 4.18782799422868 | 1.50132563692288 |
| 60 | 5205 | 5193.4073553701 | -2.95004577784138 | 4.18726192191313 | 0.505452422013514 |
| 61 | 5155 | 5198.90149904463 | -2.41261621780444 | -45.1197948345741 | 0.0874985640176161 |
| 62 | 4995 | 5016.4634930916 | -13.98712022436 | 2.68373268464516 | -1.71535604076527 |
| 63 | 5035 | 5028.49806005524 | -12.3161478358343 | 2.71059582091322 | 0.25894896712383 |
| 64 | 5005 | 5004.05804122849 | -13.0946218148367 | 2.70937403900706 | -0.120636455959786 |
| 65 | 4975 | 4974.66583262433 | -14.1411192197767 | 2.70975352746172 | -0.162147023072515 |
| 66 | 4940 | 4940.24539841342 | -15.4433432495973 | 2.71051929010941 | -0.201758326195002 |
| 67 | 5015 | 5001.16211528471 | -10.5397396495574 | 2.70765685979621 | 0.759702904162153 |
| 68 | 4920 | 4926.61917128905 | -14.6499652700536 | 2.70991936826816 | -0.636765515729735 |
| 69 | 4950 | 4942.797566913 | -12.670137268816 | 2.70889904915015 | 0.306710527506491 |
| 70 | 4930 | 4927.65186243346 | -12.8291248696642 | 2.70897568022624 | -0.0246293767277206 |
| 71 | 4905 | 4903.88499154797 | -13.5315927756756 | 2.70929229873091 | -0.108819565568277 |
| 72 | 5015 | 4996.78075134397 | -6.69624189986322 | 2.70641138793777 | 1.05884615039333 |
| 73 | 5010 | 5030.23456078283 | -4.12961178580111 | -26.0357249818518 | 0.413326837482597 |
| 74 | 5045 | 5040.57072887428 | -3.20105023425349 | 2.46433359238921 | 0.138741269106148 |
| 75 | 5000 | 5002.62808745509 | -5.43227058526791 | 2.43404675135538 | -0.345710679199108 |
| 76 | 5060 | 5049.8818300073 | -2.04824886427952 | 2.43798118488306 | 0.524222874379595 |
| 77 | 4950 | 4960.31577724794 | -7.66959285177056 | 2.44068034895107 | -0.870708684763233 |
| 78 | 4995 | 4987.4830979284 | -5.43197387681757 | 2.43919857216004 | 0.346585613308543 |
| 79 | 4975 | 4973.76780399219 | -5.96402496356243 | 2.4395434710968 | -0.0824091748794929 |
| 80 | 4930 | 4932.67878617445 | -8.22017186236215 | 2.44091999944394 | -0.349452678441936 |
| 81 | 5000 | 4988.26167013477 | -4.1219577320734 | 2.4385796419484 | 0.63476745856666 |
| 82 | 4955 | 4956.57782529604 | -5.89232743059638 | 2.43952516534241 | -0.274209892776932 |
| 83 | 4900 | 4904.31748495062 | -8.87067367532394 | 2.4410126536125 | -0.461310763959002 |
| 84 | 4910 | 4906.01840905795 | -8.191628198426 | 2.4406955217029 | 0.105175990441658 |
| 85 | 4940 | 4954.1930693115 | -4.58216293570049 | -22.3467683692997 | 0.577545884503937 |
| 86 | 4945 | 4943.79940276025 | -4.95499711544395 | 1.99730588923671 | -0.0560056990404218 |
| 87 | 4975 | 4968.63864050489 | -3.04150793620763 | 2.01987642464502 | 0.296473613483416 |
| 88 | 4900 | 4906.58580963844 | -6.83203497440925 | 2.01629086012029 | -0.587150147918523 |
| 89 | 4950 | 4941.84928169233 | -4.1280382313293 | 2.01497612603141 | 0.418804006605798 |
| 90 | 4865 | 4872.49015823009 | -8.31814340316518 | 2.0176625482699 | -0.648970561562538 |
| 91 | 4870 | 4867.49772786208 | -8.10451714406788 | 2.01752905332381 | 0.0330868655249828 |
| 92 | 4785 | 4792.70080563044 | -12.3884819616379 | 2.02004717149286 | -0.663511303950801 |
| 93 | 4715 | 4721.54379500963 | -16.1634571558877 | 2.022123889869 | -0.584679508242538 |
| 94 | 4630 | 4637.82266535311 | -20.5029984589293 | 2.02435655522162 | -0.672123034283252 |
| 95 | 4515 | 4526.24731691068 | -26.3529952970508 | 2.02717108330582 | -0.906069725361956 |
| 96 | 4510 | 4506.94529712435 | -25.9000786334015 | 2.02696731734602 | 0.07014959901962 |
| 97 | 4485 | 4502.65631157897 | -24.515118986785 | -20.7853501446915 | 0.220648415793122 |
| 98 | 4470 | 4469.36761845501 | -25.0779104177454 | 1.84368358037057 | -0.0848618107039316 |
| 99 | 4385 | 4390.96294328835 | -28.5027414569772 | 1.80789264063167 | -0.530630313376335 |
| 100 | 4310 | 4315.09845782206 | -31.5450077329418 | 1.80542116723734 | -0.47123529587152 |
| 101 | 4370 | 4357.42884137355 | -26.7995754696149 | 1.80324601598078 | 0.734979836619428 |
| 102 | 4425 | 4411.42355986462 | -21.6097099012236 | 1.8001615951613 | 0.803807797113058 |
| 103 | 4460 | 4449.50210533846 | -17.7756109776797 | 1.79794436275194 | 0.593828299635993 |
| 104 | 4430 | 4428.65032145959 | -17.9732097918697 | 1.7980518237784 | -0.030604394121919 |
| 105 | 4360 | 4364.8762563317 | -20.9152358303072 | 1.79954920359189 | -0.455667106827128 |
| 106 | 4320 | 4321.47698216733 | -22.3595002638977 | 1.80023666213371 | -0.223691454267569 |
| 107 | 4370 | 4359.41294720156 | -18.4864186546848 | 1.79851270514886 | 0.59987483783066 |
| 108 | 4370 | 4364.732245448 | -16.9572585380172 | 1.79787622304159 | 0.236841670187216 |
| 109 | 4305 | 4328.72228698846 | -18.1787627116436 | -20.961656139597 | -0.193986467199376 |
| 110 | 4255 | 4260.30565522713 | -21.4014208813933 | 1.6691690145358 | -0.487334660223705 |
| 111 | 4310 | 4299.46854567288 | -17.5117382319807 | 1.70569412579032 | 0.602639979776094 |
| 112 | 4375 | 4361.67084101135 | -12.3913183001008 | 1.70937887838397 | 0.793126483612713 |
| 113 | 4365 | 4361.50848342256 | -11.605781284543 | 1.70904659143459 | 0.121665135783436 |
| 114 | 4400 | 4392.13655964605 | -8.89285958026448 | 1.7075690231128 | 0.420178349693362 |
| 115 | 4385 | 4383.28623295901 | -8.89012745628106 | 1.70756757623002 | 0.00042315385713432 |
| 116 | 4305 | 4312.33613972436 | -12.8765756578789 | 1.70955273389257 | -0.617427356153164 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 4282.1892328824 | 4296.84104156475 | -14.6518086823495 |
| 2 | 4252.16377868488 | 4283.8489474604 | -31.6851687755241 |
| 3 | 4249.67450455627 | 4270.85685335606 | -21.1823487997841 |
| 4 | 4315.83252204478 | 4257.86475925171 | 57.9677627930687 |
| 5 | 4241.42087579439 | 4244.87266514737 | -3.45178935297598 |
| 6 | 4242.6374296789 | 4231.88057104302 | 10.7568586358785 |
| 7 | 4190.13655342565 | 4218.88847693867 | -28.7519235130255 |
| 8 | 4208.91823857836 | 4205.89638283433 | 3.02185574403285 |
| 9 | 4182.48249236233 | 4192.90428872998 | -10.4217963676578 |
| 10 | 4163.82931164594 | 4179.91219462564 | -16.0828829796992 |
| 11 | 4223.95869389986 | 4166.92010052129 | 57.038593378566 |
| 12 | 4151.37065433642 | 4153.92800641695 | -2.55735208052981 |
