| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.866614635189143 |
| beta | 0.080946438363641 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 3740 | 3596.55048076923 | 143.449519230769 |
| 14 | 3800 | 3792.21889078383 | 7.78110921617463 |
| 15 | 3820 | 3820.86091104197 | -0.860911041970212 |
| 16 | 3860 | 3860.70323770118 | -0.703237701175567 |
| 17 | 3845 | 3849.17454137136 | -4.17454137136065 |
| 18 | 3865 | 3868.51138770492 | -3.51138770491798 |
| 19 | 3900 | 4005.88494441569 | -105.884944415689 |
| 20 | 4050 | 3926.9039833436 | 123.096016656402 |
| 21 | 4165 | 4059.78804877344 | 105.211951226557 |
| 22 | 4100 | 4176.42907326572 | -76.4290732657237 |
| 23 | 4075 | 4117.58754305085 | -42.5875430508504 |
| 24 | 4110 | 4098.00275562787 | 11.9972443721299 |
| 25 | 4170 | 4221.11427607781 | -51.1142760778112 |
| 26 | 4235 | 4227.46654826873 | 7.53345173127309 |
| 27 | 4320 | 4252.11572791681 | 67.8842720831899 |
| 28 | 4370 | 4353.75160086257 | 16.2483991374284 |
| 29 | 4460 | 4359.83649978991 | 100.163500210087 |
| 30 | 4575 | 4480.38800243867 | 94.6119975613256 |
| 31 | 4510 | 4706.73020762404 | -196.730207624044 |
| 32 | 4510 | 4590.78000408904 | -80.7800040890434 |
| 33 | 4525 | 4541.51076269211 | -16.5107626921063 |
| 34 | 4570 | 4516.81218518683 | 53.1878148131664 |
| 35 | 4670 | 4572.2803924387 | 97.7196075613001 |
| 36 | 4735 | 4688.87898534057 | 46.1210146594331 |
| 37 | 4730 | 4842.8486106741 | -112.848610674098 |
| 38 | 4680 | 4808.89722833788 | -128.897228337879 |
| 39 | 4725 | 4719.16644889358 | 5.83355110641787 |
| 40 | 4750 | 4751.5909190518 | -1.59091905179775 |
| 41 | 4750 | 4743.60776311019 | 6.39223688980564 |
| 42 | 4740 | 4765.77594551252 | -25.7759455125215 |
| 43 | 4780 | 4824.10299097968 | -44.1029909796835 |
| 44 | 4835 | 4841.77011009909 | -6.77011009908983 |
| 45 | 4865 | 4856.28553227672 | 8.71446772327727 |
| 46 | 4885 | 4855.58784287215 | 29.412157127852 |
| 47 | 4915 | 4887.5673233294 | 27.4326766705981 |
| 48 | 4925 | 4922.6168690249 | 2.38313097509763 |
| 49 | 4970 | 5000.65533077564 | -30.6553307756367 |
| 50 | 5015 | 5024.73595164228 | -9.735951642283 |
| 51 | 5030 | 5053.54503561652 | -23.5450356165202 |
| 52 | 5030 | 5054.76023052194 | -24.7602305219389 |
| 53 | 5010 | 5021.37868740357 | -11.3786874035677 |
| 54 | 4985 | 5016.22458393962 | -31.224583939621 |
| 55 | 4955 | 5059.37200336775 | -104.372003367748 |
| 56 | 5000 | 5017.54774451006 | -17.547744510056 |
| 57 | 5005 | 5011.79145306319 | -6.79145306319424 |
| 58 | 4990 | 4986.33207010615 | 3.6679298938534 |
| 59 | 5015 | 4979.84644695502 | 35.1535530449837 |
| 60 | 5030 | 5002.89664312851 | 27.1033568714884 |
| 61 | 5125 | 5084.33614418645 | 40.6638558135483 |
| 62 | 5055 | 5164.40132784838 | -109.401327848384 |
| 63 | 5055 | 5089.39351821964 | -34.3935182196437 |
| 64 | 5000 | 5064.68066565827 | -64.680665658273 |
| 65 | 4980 | 4979.32349345948 | 0.676506540521586 |
| 66 | 4950 | 4963.65021182746 | -13.6502118274602 |
| 67 | 4985 | 4995.18464168559 | -10.1846416855942 |
| 68 | 4930 | 5036.08639584236 | -106.086395842358 |
| 69 | 4945 | 4938.34579627033 | 6.65420372967401 |
| 70 | 4930 | 4910.1868002502 | 19.8131997497976 |
| 71 | 4920 | 4907.27826142374 | 12.7217385762615 |
| 72 | 4920 | 4893.62699876802 | 26.3730012319847 |
| 73 | 4965 | 4960.00315928826 | 4.99684071174033 |
| 74 | 4970 | 4970.40109207801 | -0.40109207801288 |
| 75 | 4955 | 4988.7645294024 | -33.7645294024005 |
| 76 | 5050 | 4949.50613205781 | 100.493867942189 |
| 77 | 5065 | 5016.54543397396 | 48.4545660260374 |
| 78 | 5065 | 5044.25405974093 | 20.7459402590684 |
| 79 | 5065 | 5112.35953942879 | -47.3595394287941 |
| 80 | 5085 | 5111.94588178733 | -26.9458817873265 |
| 81 | 5065 | 5107.07200210279 | -42.0720021027882 |
| 82 | 4920 | 5044.2677140922 | -124.267714092195 |
| 83 | 4880 | 4911.26979809082 | -31.2697980908206 |
| 84 | 4955 | 4853.94887463082 | 101.05112536918 |
| 85 | 5005 | 4980.06271675702 | 24.9372832429781 |
| 86 | 5010 | 5006.29192635579 | 3.70807364420671 |
| 87 | 5025 | 5023.32509066735 | 1.67490933265071 |
| 88 | 5005 | 5034.73204722985 | -29.7320472298452 |
| 89 | 4975 | 4974.88403056771 | 0.115969432286875 |
| 90 | 4970 | 4946.52452057856 | 23.475479421435 |
| 91 | 4980 | 4997.62138469852 | -17.6213846985247 |
| 92 | 4900 | 5017.49844320626 | -117.498443206257 |
| 93 | 4885 | 4917.57689336244 | -32.5768933624413 |
| 94 | 4895 | 4838.1476842947 | 56.852315705295 |
| 95 | 4845 | 4873.33123721961 | -28.3312372196078 |
| 96 | 4875 | 4835.2283658786 | 39.7716341214045 |
| 97 | 4825 | 4892.80709147542 | -67.8070914754207 |
| 98 | 4765 | 4824.04810348065 | -59.0481034806508 |
| 99 | 4730 | 4770.23944644677 | -40.2394464467661 |
| 100 | 4630 | 4722.00810949607 | -92.0081094960688 |
| 101 | 4540 | 4588.6779370129 | -48.6779370129043 |
| 102 | 4555 | 4494.23177121466 | 60.7682287853386 |
| 103 | 4520 | 4547.86446117379 | -27.8644611737918 |
| 104 | 4520 | 4520.52314013793 | -0.523140137925111 |
| 105 | 4505 | 4516.48769371923 | -11.4876937192257 |
| 106 | 4485 | 4451.92893733698 | 33.0710626630234 |
| 107 | 4455 | 4438.13852512876 | 16.8614748712444 |
| 108 | 4410 | 4434.45194210554 | -24.4519421055356 |
| 109 | 4345 | 4403.68660204497 | -58.6866020449661 |
| 110 | 4350 | 4326.30213403524 | 23.6978659647639 |
| 111 | 4315 | 4334.81797173494 | -19.817971734944 |
| 112 | 4245 | 4286.91838221204 | -41.918382212044 |
| 113 | 4215 | 4195.82945462672 | 19.1705453732793 |
| 114 | 4175 | 4172.59296485824 | 2.40703514175948 |
| 115 | 4110 | 4157.54535720203 | -47.5453572020324 |
| 116 | 4085 | 4109.13328390184 | -24.1332839018442 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 117 | 4073.85626189856 | 3962.60706616964 | 4185.10545762749 |
| 118 | 4016.68408096904 | 3864.24723575917 | 4169.12092617891 |
| 119 | 3961.23945190032 | 3772.06997252285 | 4150.4089312778 |
| 120 | 3925.41481280502 | 3701.48962277246 | 4149.34000283757 |
| 121 | 3900.97371933275 | 3643.23161001296 | 4158.71582865253 |
| 122 | 3879.25386822344 | 3588.09684664575 | 4170.41088980113 |
| 123 | 3853.58308860322 | 3529.101122459 | 4178.06505474745 |
| 124 | 3813.45506634142 | 3455.54277671915 | 4171.36735596369 |
| 125 | 3763.32703341231 | 3371.75047630878 | 4154.90359051584 |
| 126 | 3716.3817021419 | 3290.81933055158 | 4141.94407373223 |
| 127 | 3687.55699314502 | 3227.62611799768 | 4147.48786829236 |
| 128 | 3681.77831555238 | 3187.05289655385 | 4176.5037345509 |
