Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[105])
104	6220.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
105	6205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
106	6199.5	6207.0569	6173.9069	6240.2069	0.3275	0.5484	0.5484	0.5484
107	6184.5	6205.3894	6152.6561	6258.1228	0.2188	0.5866	0.5866	0.5058
108	6169	6205.9495	6130.4708	6281.4281	0.1687	0.7112	0.7112	0.5098
109	6140.5	6201.7309	6099.9722	6303.4897	0.1191	0.7358	0.7358	0.4749
110	6144.5	6202.6093	6070.6782	6334.5403	0.194	0.8219	0.8219	0.4858
111	6145.5	6199.5487	6036.0329	6363.0644	0.2585	0.7453	0.7453	0.474
112	6148.5	6199.7731	6001.959	6397.5873	0.3057	0.7046	0.7046	0.4793
113	6145	6196.7021	5962.7115	6430.6927	0.3325	0.6568	0.6568	0.4723
114	6133	6196.9827	5924.508	6469.4575	0.3227	0.6458	0.6458	0.477
115	6138	6194.0283	5881.5006	6506.556	0.3627	0.649	0.649	0.4726
116	6104.5	6194.1497	5839.4672	6548.8323	0.3102	0.6218	0.6218	0.4761
117	6090.5	6191.3028	5792.9784	6589.6272	0.3099	0.6654	0.6654	0.4731

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
106	0.0027	-0.0012	0.0012	0.0012	57.1066	0	0	-0.6157	0.6157
107	0.0043	-0.0034	0.0023	0.0023	436.3687	246.7377	15.7079	-1.7021	1.1589
108	0.0062	-0.006	0.0035	0.0035	1365.2619	619.5791	24.8913	-3.0107	1.7762
109	0.0084	-0.01	0.0051	0.0051	3749.2282	1401.9914	37.4432	-4.9892	2.5794
110	0.0109	-0.0095	0.006	0.006	3376.6904	1796.9312	42.3902	-4.7348	3.0105
111	0.0135	-0.0088	0.0065	0.0064	2921.2578	1984.3189	44.5457	-4.404	3.2428
112	0.0163	-0.0083	0.0067	0.0067	2628.9355	2076.407	45.5676	-4.1778	3.3763
113	0.0193	-0.0084	0.0069	0.0069	2673.105	2150.9943	46.3788	-4.2128	3.4809
114	0.0224	-0.0104	0.0073	0.0073	4093.7902	2366.8605	48.6504	-5.2134	3.6734
115	0.0257	-0.0091	0.0075	0.0075	3139.1721	2444.0916	49.4378	-4.5653	3.7626
116	0.0292	-0.0147	0.0082	0.0081	8037.0759	2952.5448	54.3373	-7.3048	4.0846
117	0.0328	-0.0166	0.0089	0.0088	10161.2049	3553.2664	59.6093	-8.2136	4.4287