| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.340258676878912 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 1885 | 3647 | -1762 |
| 3 | 4791 | 3047.46421133936 | 1743.53578866064 |
| 4 | 3178 | 3640.71739188006 | -462.717391880058 |
| 5 | 2849 | 3483.27378435009 | -634.273784350089 |
| 6 | 4716 | 3267.45662570815 | 1448.54337429185 |
| 7 | 3085 | 3760.33607764641 | -675.336077646408 |
| 8 | 2799 | 3530.54711741785 | -731.547117417847 |
| 9 | 3573 | 3281.63186317067 | 291.368136829331 |
| 10 | 2721 | 3380.77239989289 | -659.772399892891 |
| 11 | 3355 | 3156.27911606411 | 198.720883935888 |
| 12 | 5667 | 3223.89562110035 | 2443.10437889965 |
| 13 | 2856 | 4055.18308454182 | -1199.18308454182 |
| 14 | 1944 | 3647.15063486005 | -1703.15063486005 |
| 15 | 4188 | 3067.63885331709 | 1120.36114668291 |
| 16 | 2949 | 3448.85145471396 | -499.851454713957 |
| 17 | 3567 | 3278.77266009699 | 288.227339903014 |
| 18 | 4137 | 3376.84451341271 | 760.155486587286 |
| 19 | 3494 | 3635.49401350115 | -141.49401350115 |
| 20 | 2489 | 3587.34944768096 | -1098.34944768096 |
| 21 | 3244 | 3213.62651786235 | 30.3734821376456 |
| 22 | 2669 | 3223.96135870672 | -554.961358706715 |
| 23 | 2529 | 3035.13094107425 | -506.130941074245 |
| 24 | 3377 | 2862.91549673684 | 514.084503263156 |
| 25 | 3366 | 3037.83720962112 | 328.162790378882 |
| 26 | 2073 | 3149.49744647633 | -1076.49744647633 |
| 27 | 4133 | 2783.20984967477 | 1349.79015032523 |
| 28 | 4213 | 3242.48766028862 | 970.512339711382 |
| 29 | 3710 | 3572.71290489347 | 137.28709510653 |
| 30 | 5123 | 3619.42603022697 | 1503.57396977303 |
| 31 | 3141 | 4131.03011977151 | -990.030119771513 |
| 32 | 3084 | 3794.16378114779 | -710.163781147787 |
| 33 | 3804 | 3552.52439260712 | 251.475607392884 |
| 34 | 3203 | 3638.09115004594 | -435.09115004594 |
| 35 | 2757 | 3490.04761100958 | -733.047611009584 |
| 36 | 2243 | 3240.62180079822 | -997.621800798216 |
| 37 | 5229 | 2901.17232683306 | 2327.82767316694 |
| 38 | 2857 | 3693.23589090696 | -836.235890906958 |
| 39 | 3395 | 3408.6993731083 | -13.6993731082985 |
| 40 | 4882 | 3404.0380425404 | 1477.9619574596 |
| 41 | 7140 | 3906.92742266297 | 3233.07257733703 |
| 42 | 8945 | 5007.00842008116 | 3937.99157991884 |
| 43 | 6866 | 6346.94422462464 | 519.055775375358 |
| 44 | 4205 | 6523.55745598022 | -2318.55745598022 |
| 45 | 3217 | 5734.64816374065 | -2517.64816374065 |
| 46 | 3079 | 4877.99653069964 | -1798.99653069964 |
| 47 | 2263 | 4265.87235145403 | -2002.87235145403 |
| 48 | 4187 | 3584.37765519092 | 602.622344809076 |
| 49 | 2665 | 3789.42513689333 | -1124.42513689333 |
| 50 | 2073 | 3406.82972756461 | -1333.82972756461 |
| 51 | 3540 | 2952.98258928172 | 587.017410718281 |
| 52 | 3686 | 3152.72035675761 | 533.279643242393 |
| 53 | 2384 | 3334.17338257372 | -950.173382573722 |
| 54 | 4500 | 3010.86864461363 | 1489.13135538637 |
| 55 | 1679 | 3517.5585092963 | -1838.5585092963 |
| 56 | 868 | 2891.97302355867 | -2023.97302355867 |
| 57 | 1869 | 2203.29864052399 | -334.298640523988 |
| 58 | 3710 | 2089.55062741688 | 1620.44937258312 |
| 59 | 6904 | 2640.92258688127 | 4263.07741311873 |
| 60 | 3415 | 4091.47166690143 | -676.471666901426 |
| 61 | 938 | 3861.29631257547 | -2923.29631257547 |
| 62 | 3359 | 2866.61937713354 | 492.380622866458 |
| 63 | 3551 | 3034.1561563909 | 516.843843609103 |
| 64 | 2278 | 3210.01675877034 | -932.016758770342 |
| 65 | 3033 | 2892.88996960217 | 140.110030397826 |
| 66 | 2280 | 2940.5636231628 | -660.563623162802 |
| 67 | 2901 | 2715.80111875109 | 185.198881248913 |
| 68 | 4812 | 2778.8166450443 | 2033.1833549557 |
| 69 | 4882 | 3470.62492325375 | 1411.37507674625 |
| 70 | 7896 | 3950.8575394473 | 3945.1424605527 |
| 71 | 5048 | 5293.22649317378 | -245.22649317378 |
| 72 | 3741 | 5209.78605107081 | -1468.78605107081 |
| 73 | 4418 | 4710.01885271526 | -292.018852715257 |
| 74 | 3471 | 4610.65690426667 | -1139.65690426667 |
| 75 | 5055 | 4222.87875392497 | 832.121246075027 |
| 76 | 7595 | 4506.01522811729 | 3088.98477188271 |
| 77 | 8124 | 5557.06909949721 | 2566.93090050279 |
| 78 | 2333 | 6430.48961134189 | -4097.48961134189 |
| 79 | 3008 | 5036.28321766161 | -2028.28321766161 |
| 80 | 2744 | 4346.14225368437 | -1602.14225368437 |
| 81 | 2833 | 3800.99945027393 | -967.999450273927 |
| 82 | 2428 | 3471.62923810421 | -1043.62923810421 |
| 83 | 4269 | 3116.52533439472 | 1152.47466560528 |
| 84 | 3207 | 3508.66483925004 | -301.664839250041 |
| 85 | 5170 | 3406.02076018593 | 1763.97923981407 |
| 86 | 7767 | 4006.23000236694 | 3760.76999763306 |
| 87 | 4544 | 5285.86462580747 | -741.864625807471 |
| 88 | 3741 | 5033.43874980695 | -1292.43874980695 |
| 89 | 2193 | 4593.6752508506 | -2400.6752508506 |
| 90 | 3432 | 3776.82466638023 | -344.824666380227 |
| 91 | 5282 | 3659.49508164248 | 1622.50491835752 |
| 92 | 6635 | 4211.56645839234 | 2423.43354160766 |
| 93 | 4222 | 5036.16074876374 | -814.160748763737 |
| 94 | 7317 | 4759.13548962264 | 2557.86451037736 |
| 95 | 4132 | 5629.47108355917 | -1497.47108355917 |
| 96 | 5048 | 5119.9435540029 | -71.9435540028953 |
| 97 | 4383 | 5095.4641355079 | -712.464135507904 |
| 98 | 3761 | 4853.04203143631 | -1092.04203143631 |
| 99 | 4081 | 4481.46525472363 | -400.46525472363 |
| 100 | 6491 | 4345.20347701539 | 2145.79652298461 |
| 101 | 5859 | 5075.3293627775 | 783.670637222495 |
| 102 | 7139 | 5341.98009690769 | 1797.01990309231 |
| 103 | 7682 | 5953.43171145895 | 1728.56828854105 |
| 104 | 8649 | 6541.59207021277 | 2107.40792978723 |
| 105 | 6146 | 7258.6559040463 | -1112.6559040463 |
| 106 | 7137 | 6880.065078314 | 256.934921686003 |
| 107 | 9948 | 6967.48941481086 | 2980.51058518914 |
| 108 | 15819 | 7981.63400295091 | 7837.36599704909 |
| 109 | 8370 | 10648.3657873226 | -2278.36578732261 |
| 110 | 13222 | 9873.13205908204 | 3348.86794091796 |
| 111 | 16711 | 11012.613433701 | 5698.38656629901 |
| 112 | 19059 | 12951.5389070945 | 6107.46109290554 |
| 113 | 8303 | 15029.6555376559 | -6726.65553765593 |
| 114 | 20781 | 12740.8526245929 | 8040.14737540708 |
| 115 | 9638 | 15476.5825324604 | -5838.58253246039 |
| 116 | 13444 | 13489.9541651171 | -45.9541651170912 |
| 117 | 6072 | 13474.3178616973 | -7402.31786169728 |
| 118 | 13442 | 10955.614980239 | 2486.38501976098 |
| 119 | 14457 | 11801.6290572744 | 2655.37094272556 |
| 120 | 17705 | 12705.142060869 | 4999.85793913105 |
| 121 | 16463 | 14406.3871078202 | 2056.61289217979 |
| 122 | 19194 | 15106.1674893654 | 4087.83251063458 |
| 123 | 20688 | 16497.0879707365 | 4190.91202926346 |
| 124 | 14739 | 17923.0821527296 | -3184.08215272964 |
| 125 | 12702 | 16839.6705723681 | -4137.6705723681 |
| 126 | 15760 | 15431.7922580533 | 328.20774194668 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 15543.4677900695 | 10835.7212169565 | 20251.2143631826 |
| 128 | 15543.4677900695 | 10570.6610967312 | 20516.2744834078 |
| 129 | 15543.4677900695 | 10319.0314547351 | 20767.904125404 |
| 130 | 15543.4677900695 | 10078.9766303534 | 21007.9589497856 |
| 131 | 15543.4677900695 | 9849.0325900459 | 21237.9029900931 |
| 132 | 15543.4677900695 | 9628.02014344795 | 21458.9154366911 |
| 133 | 15543.4677900695 | 9414.97291183284 | 21671.9626683062 |
| 134 | 15543.4677900695 | 9209.08715063635 | 21877.8484295027 |
| 135 | 15543.4677900695 | 9009.68583029474 | 22077.2497498443 |
| 136 | 15543.4677900695 | 8816.19231551588 | 22270.7432646232 |
| 137 | 15543.4677900695 | 8628.11068264668 | 22458.8248974923 |
| 138 | 15543.4677900695 | 8445.01073688986 | 22641.9248432492 |
