| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 3647 | 3647 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1885 | 2356.44982994558 | -395.803836867124 | -394.482084091816 | -0.212298170279756 |
| 3 | 4791 | 3632.02811546237 | -37.1254030232851 | -5.00306558100766 | 1.11701454582201 |
| 4 | 3178 | 3427.33460522904 | -63.8572917778289 | -77.9376418413325 | -0.145107768190526 |
| 5 | 2849 | 3123.40530952085 | -55.5751826829058 | 166.790247815742 | -0.324772333400021 |
| 6 | 4716 | 3904.75584375366 | 51.5673301580575 | 50.7103328846863 | 0.661377022590795 |
| 7 | 3085 | 3547.79572396938 | 9.3643739577698 | 11.233443650117 | -0.385924399255911 |
| 8 | 2799 | 3244.41946214097 | -17.0917232699317 | -35.8077013045984 | -0.322732188677044 |
| 9 | 3573 | 3335.98366240343 | -18.8868881350565 | 51.5040591321881 | 0.138045802422011 |
| 10 | 2721 | 3061.35776584463 | -40.2109778404079 | -40.1074738653545 | -0.243147358142945 |
| 11 | 3355 | 3164.89396020352 | -29.9493336134409 | 2.11769169970399 | 0.148590825685277 |
| 12 | 5667 | 4153.64998780918 | 30.6337543996252 | 83.6770225299431 | 1.10907228103278 |
| 13 | 2856 | 3744.57497789713 | 33.5324118453151 | -159.398794954358 | -0.545920772551831 |
| 14 | 1944 | 3011.10539889255 | -14.3470430642429 | -77.3275626389157 | -0.784105328085549 |
| 15 | 4188 | 3469.70385772074 | 12.109289511842 | 69.5616922977802 | 0.508099560405196 |
| 16 | 2949 | 3246.30450593311 | 1.12820495337541 | 42.9413071902193 | -0.262773603258119 |
| 17 | 3567 | 3370.35566298001 | 1.10079182598497 | -3.12209048723482 | 0.150412448928746 |
| 18 | 4137 | 3718.03196519388 | 18.4670445188616 | -50.839212137254 | 0.368632323170359 |
| 19 | 3494 | 3613.57647996117 | 12.7240752701483 | 53.3566969727367 | -0.134972850911476 |
| 20 | 2489 | 3175.6641629669 | -4.78228081920118 | -25.7252946156598 | -0.50992931913638 |
| 21 | 3244 | 3195.97569045447 | -4.67598842019683 | 7.86808234210751 | 0.0303905878515649 |
| 22 | 2669 | 3008.64653320551 | -12.3601751875153 | -84.5444375804581 | -0.199211100405903 |
| 23 | 2529 | 2787.85374060916 | -20.8168999745188 | 38.9989750974523 | -0.23213994478079 |
| 24 | 3377 | 3006.64369323959 | -12.7379382834977 | 15.8672660615633 | 0.273571240325326 |
| 25 | 3366 | 3118.83310606713 | -11.7962389171101 | 49.6764224638112 | 0.150131869183882 |
| 26 | 2073 | 2738.85204269764 | -25.2357846330101 | -141.439587640313 | -0.408484302859878 |
| 27 | 4133 | 3239.47487421858 | -6.21242000458826 | 134.017548572739 | 0.591573519199941 |
| 28 | 4213 | 3607.73335685425 | 5.0803420080352 | 48.306816388055 | 0.430142646657817 |
| 29 | 3710 | 3637.30669211548 | 5.32670627591905 | 34.3499009133034 | 0.0292597407987498 |
| 30 | 5123 | 4276.45525154483 | 25.9227416349868 | -68.5521731239075 | 0.711819631834861 |
| 31 | 3141 | 3834.11565653032 | 10.528092161956 | -11.5030380333946 | -0.530727966525379 |
| 32 | 3084 | 3535.65783944282 | 2.00072254391024 | 9.4645590871089 | -0.356429455833688 |
| 33 | 3804 | 3634.99437464807 | 3.16990225003556 | 17.8172568367702 | 0.115739795817856 |
| 34 | 3203 | 3485.50334220699 | -1.33848757357478 | -59.9397430312226 | -0.17299024975407 |
| 35 | 2757 | 3204.33675447599 | -9.82182353069269 | -37.5613863576046 | -0.318990678463328 |
| 36 | 2243 | 2835.61223084446 | -19.0498518196491 | -55.7849447568916 | -0.415280257493962 |
| 37 | 5229 | 3665.97333267616 | -7.55221632354125 | 251.928079490131 | 1.00634019416384 |
| 38 | 2857 | 3390.19569087454 | -14.8738427499909 | -139.335439680816 | -0.305997054989603 |
| 39 | 3395 | 3384.92386583204 | -14.6022580535521 | -4.05233876863616 | 0.0109959112527536 |
| 40 | 4882 | 3983.20305306494 | 0.286459061758173 | -19.3544888884123 | 0.710762903251794 |
| 41 | 7140 | 5052.14125229628 | 16.0260419922359 | 446.615704080346 | 1.26246785427581 |
| 42 | 8945 | 6598.34587024498 | 55.1725594862492 | 87.5701216442096 | 1.75466036291645 |
| 43 | 6866 | 6794.52200654851 | 58.9296390294869 | -136.807522198172 | 0.162067092727368 |
| 44 | 4205 | 5938.39966804317 | 37.6933848575008 | -361.018189776973 | -1.0630086795474 |
| 45 | 3217 | 4852.31199248376 | 20.0933696320651 | 83.7096836989292 | -1.32461973397082 |
| 46 | 3079 | 4143.0621308216 | 2.40497448437476 | 17.1805249297637 | -0.839676534636033 |
| 47 | 2263 | 3439.12132188546 | -15.4720414225192 | -129.351000693092 | -0.814296087904568 |
| 48 | 4187 | 3770.09626416074 | -7.72354533208285 | -103.134283659365 | 0.402994226542908 |
| 49 | 2665 | 3293.91566046088 | -15.4017431884173 | 85.4011398194698 | -0.55120958742399 |
| 50 | 2073 | 2787.63322615371 | -26.7942788759986 | 15.4438885089507 | -0.566903248446258 |
| 51 | 3540 | 3095.49118444935 | -18.69179900337 | -52.772791761388 | 0.386746776297892 |
| 52 | 3686 | 3322.93200349238 | -13.3497253300372 | -6.63703194482345 | 0.286600695285238 |
| 53 | 2384 | 2928.61259363847 | -19.8104582749721 | 34.8445811891607 | -0.447654117475372 |
| 54 | 4500 | 3498.05350887701 | -6.62214666328781 | 123.33392249453 | 0.682184212016077 |
| 55 | 1679 | 2861.24964248273 | -21.3087742640585 | -243.690230186488 | -0.72976147524002 |
| 56 | 868 | 2091.80362369468 | -37.1533128330488 | -99.4597039718215 | -0.871852011243908 |
| 57 | 1869 | 1970.84722008512 | -38.6115114514833 | 25.3658881359558 | -0.0983670963471821 |
| 58 | 3710 | 2506.18411877613 | -26.1444892688378 | 346.288228476252 | 0.665768852987121 |
| 59 | 6904 | 4181.90626105565 | 12.2398659790594 | 182.560249856642 | 1.97411418600085 |
| 60 | 3415 | 3987.65337431246 | 7.95361257259654 | -262.187303706077 | -0.240796374271655 |
| 61 | 938 | 2912.35593849491 | -11.2657582065408 | -332.533448784992 | -1.27045991007103 |
| 62 | 3359 | 2985.05220907303 | -9.48650281213226 | 248.29760160562 | 0.0975469466661459 |
| 63 | 3551 | 3101.72672190225 | -6.71978560990234 | 260.710197947617 | 0.146548188021529 |
| 64 | 2278 | 2848.75009068406 | -11.7475671188987 | -200.360296442461 | -0.287318517180989 |
| 65 | 3033 | 3029.56593381395 | -8.28026040960246 | -288.068683402969 | 0.225699027051777 |
| 66 | 2280 | 2664.51643686292 | -15.6876944345773 | 150.093936740024 | -0.415016854412007 |
| 67 | 2901 | 2629.12482428782 | -16.1095602245979 | 301.36541811454 | -0.0229147496864494 |
| 68 | 4812 | 3497.28487550446 | 1.69912189481871 | -15.7192328492271 | 1.032163805336 |
| 69 | 4882 | 4118.03578805831 | 12.9711024600395 | -172.268438984612 | 0.725222499783635 |
| 70 | 7896 | 5485.334993691 | 40.6186859925776 | 379.069861322667 | 1.57704926302106 |
| 71 | 5048 | 5316.50933292591 | 36.2252263470529 | 45.3223714545623 | -0.243811775285607 |
| 72 | 3741 | 4805.00954396468 | 25.3189023356029 | -239.699369278572 | -0.639561593132486 |
| 73 | 4418 | 4785.9832437133 | 24.504594732959 | -300.966540585926 | -0.0519313404617663 |
| 74 | 3471 | 4162.26039781021 | 11.4558138288056 | 281.978270879835 | -0.755455339053873 |
| 75 | 5055 | 4441.25952512912 | 16.971156733501 | 212.460918817754 | 0.311698119217754 |
| 76 | 7595 | 5693.1429038878 | 41.3293126098583 | 42.905676643736 | 1.44239972755344 |
| 77 | 8124 | 6726.57696491024 | 59.6634255621096 | -101.039139856283 | 1.16149715014152 |
| 78 | 2333 | 5099.61618278331 | 26.1047933050211 | -232.531384788536 | -1.96695036162954 |
| 79 | 3008 | 4294.79799513077 | 9.22689120814203 | -39.4928248310986 | -0.968717447595031 |
| 80 | 2744 | 3718.15484551659 | -2.23819617191484 | -92.042213819652 | -0.684477991531974 |
| 81 | 2833 | 3327.9116195878 | -9.4427039484242 | 90.8678922009988 | -0.454157064633005 |
| 82 | 2428 | 3023.7702401377 | -15.2498109631575 | -152.736114964049 | -0.343869508889471 |
| 83 | 4269 | 3448.24342904214 | -6.42932673710473 | 160.223614195774 | 0.512936564330279 |
| 84 | 3207 | 3379.73130382832 | -7.63622640032181 | -79.239484587303 | -0.0725472490604225 |
| 85 | 5170 | 3988.56230879421 | 3.85081901476083 | 251.058867900462 | 0.721456739180553 |
| 86 | 7767 | 5466.71480398428 | 32.6690407021766 | 82.8182011203741 | 1.72107288854135 |
| 87 | 4544 | 5131.28040918918 | 25.3631517502772 | -34.0049420325166 | -0.429598038053274 |
| 88 | 3741 | 4703.50513438618 | 16.6029450002048 | -280.004528535835 | -0.529612083582 |
| 89 | 2193 | 3751.51139547855 | -1.49231514208115 | -97.0730305035712 | -1.13342538421712 |
| 90 | 3432 | 3556.94940508105 | -5.24097041455508 | 165.560201136852 | -0.225470404357345 |
| 91 | 5282 | 4161.88337650002 | 6.76117136037774 | 202.540162975319 | 0.712395475181411 |
| 92 | 6635 | 5145.18323799515 | 25.551663014943 | 18.7821482868299 | 1.14151615422591 |
| 93 | 4222 | 4883.3491428242 | 20.1726886063738 | -227.820787242989 | -0.336262712936418 |
| 94 | 7317 | 5759.68403955184 | 36.7029401580845 | 268.625906147039 | 1.0001514155282 |
| 95 | 4132 | 5171.81569539013 | 24.5104495202528 | -100.195108946706 | -0.729449243857841 |
| 96 | 5048 | 5118.16416213711 | 23.0123958614065 | 47.5917685662325 | -0.0913784981625546 |
| 97 | 4383 | 4974.34334374018 | 19.8856487296067 | -339.708651864562 | -0.195195615742324 |
| 98 | 3761 | 4411.35041160928 | 8.68449920262826 | 227.240560056396 | -0.681081169103998 |
| 99 | 4081 | 4312.61071672428 | 6.60081503017214 | -69.9417346540704 | -0.125498329026842 |
| 100 | 6491 | 5079.72859382425 | 21.1282685173557 | 265.380287489059 | 0.889211459983181 |
| 101 | 5859 | 5494.87228122265 | 28.5195689105723 | -230.100391579019 | 0.460980786597983 |
| 102 | 7139 | 6047.19347088856 | 38.5459426120689 | 302.978348368972 | 0.612180840222549 |
| 103 | 7682 | 6747.38483326987 | 51.3106069468346 | -61.4319714720586 | 0.773150841296878 |
| 104 | 8649 | 7419.67481651969 | 63.1390888252923 | 293.590121368282 | 0.726129355179951 |
| 105 | 6146 | 7125.12865179807 | 56.4252325965904 | -439.735396772522 | -0.418464590393653 |
| 106 | 7137 | 7082.42952937132 | 54.5340838724427 | 203.877706628742 | -0.115869682736991 |
| 107 | 9948 | 8209.23925825113 | 75.1267603466246 | 124.139573096276 | 1.25323335563024 |
| 108 | 15819 | 10945.8778656054 | 125.702065185629 | 862.23616566644 | 3.11243361554139 |
| 109 | 8370 | 10320.1681908523 | 111.592531216544 | -817.098651007657 | -0.879079589853974 |
| 110 | 13222 | 11442.4367890592 | 130.821466590292 | 256.971107310142 | 1.18158549260915 |
| 111 | 16711 | 13541.0344502361 | 168.467156676026 | 206.278595943984 | 2.30024423412276 |
| 112 | 19059 | 15382.0230008025 | 200.184549881515 | 1156.3113830415 | 1.95601995176868 |
| 113 | 8303 | 13328.8118550311 | 157.86290219744 | -1628.01427989768 | -2.63623128953288 |
| 114 | 20781 | 16116.3140837924 | 207.777667353709 | 702.567769848445 | 3.07469820295003 |
| 115 | 9638 | 13908.213063452 | 161.708498367073 | -630.98171792046 | -2.8244540231024 |
| 116 | 13444 | 13293.347618594 | 147.00715119862 | 1321.10547359105 | -0.90825978082229 |
| 117 | 6072 | 11402.3950154869 | 108.728374403145 | -2257.53575162053 | -2.38418452274544 |
| 118 | 13442 | 11794.2038979486 | 114.091185846919 | 1221.22513487485 | 0.331024894436036 |
| 119 | 14457 | 13019.0685554074 | 135.215268626947 | -235.568551908528 | 1.29878207326543 |
| 120 | 17705 | 14278.9790111391 | 156.475594867687 | 1730.78502185556 | 1.31547972831063 |
| 121 | 16463 | 16059.6831409295 | 186.983279362243 | -2045.66420715307 | 1.90016493707622 |
| 122 | 19194 | 16982.7306085545 | 200.904648511412 | 1101.99462312184 | 0.860802457542869 |
| 123 | 20688 | 18642.0430326495 | 228.576299891219 | -151.571649051374 | 1.70542640155954 |
| 124 | 14739 | 16841.1920092501 | 190.261691836851 | 956.881071155117 | -2.3737872170034 |
| 125 | 12702 | 16196.4266494167 | 174.578433456123 | -2235.40499812943 | -0.97689026397433 |
| 126 | 15760 | 15759.917727575 | 163.036846678488 | 921.087715045463 | -0.714697389899612 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 16078.813973381 | 15915.1527837233 | 163.66118965767 |
| 2 | 17155.4903107801 | 16076.9897248324 | 1078.50058594771 |
| 3 | 14079.9360431765 | 16238.8266659415 | -2158.89062276506 |
| 4 | 17317.3924542103 | 16400.6636070506 | 916.728847159685 |
| 5 | 16726.1617378173 | 16562.5005481597 | 163.66118965767 |
| 6 | 17802.8380752165 | 16724.3374892687 | 1078.50058594771 |
| 7 | 14727.2838076128 | 16886.1744303778 | -2158.89062276506 |
| 8 | 17964.7402186466 | 17048.0113714869 | 916.728847159685 |
| 9 | 17373.5095022537 | 17209.848312596 | 163.66118965767 |
| 10 | 18450.1858396528 | 17371.6852537051 | 1078.50058594771 |
| 11 | 15374.6315720491 | 17533.5221948141 | -2158.89062276506 |
| 12 | 18612.0879830829 | 17695.3591359232 | 916.728847159685 |
