| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.172907348880291 |
| beta | 0.0252855840704993 |
| gamma | 0.285862967573569 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 3434 | 3245.13382096188 | 188.866179038116 |
| 14 | 1867 | 1818.35380060281 | 48.6461993971882 |
| 15 | 2365 | 2283.75053286458 | 81.2494671354216 |
| 16 | 3578 | 3366.75583574515 | 211.244164254847 |
| 17 | 2845 | 2694.11654696041 | 150.883453039591 |
| 18 | 2778 | 2650.47421025548 | 127.525789744517 |
| 19 | 2056 | 2806.58734898425 | -750.587348984247 |
| 20 | 2757 | 2936.15409303797 | -179.154093037967 |
| 21 | 3325 | 1808.06540059304 | 1516.93459940696 |
| 22 | 3671 | 2977.16710277055 | 693.832897229445 |
| 23 | 2147 | 2896.39725143221 | -749.397251432212 |
| 24 | 3225 | 2610.7377679269 | 614.262232073104 |
| 25 | 3556 | 4540.56741211547 | -984.567412115473 |
| 26 | 4661 | 2404.87016434994 | 2256.12983565006 |
| 27 | 3344 | 3504.20175159198 | -160.201751591977 |
| 28 | 5375 | 5128.99295072574 | 246.00704927426 |
| 29 | 3907 | 4090.0145757156 | -183.014575715602 |
| 30 | 3356 | 3948.66596147 | -592.665961470001 |
| 31 | 2184 | 3729.14461041143 | -1545.14461041143 |
| 32 | 3510 | 4006.23579464157 | -496.235794641571 |
| 33 | 2834 | 2903.46058241424 | -69.46058241424 |
| 34 | 3271 | 3723.54802416808 | -452.548024168077 |
| 35 | 2834 | 3021.57201582263 | -187.572015822635 |
| 36 | 2408 | 3166.91752736859 | -758.917527368586 |
| 37 | 3261 | 4543.67161194382 | -1282.67161194382 |
| 38 | 1526 | 2980.47474665543 | -1454.47474665543 |
| 39 | 2938 | 2822.70412060064 | 115.295879399364 |
| 40 | 2352 | 4260.38697776795 | -1908.38697776795 |
| 41 | 3915 | 3017.47553412683 | 897.524465873173 |
| 42 | 3145 | 2986.60908855122 | 158.39091144878 |
| 43 | 1566 | 2696.41847874486 | -1130.41847874486 |
| 44 | 2746 | 3118.74718147893 | -372.74718147893 |
| 45 | 3572 | 2303.75072033246 | 1268.24927966754 |
| 46 | 2651 | 3157.45385018838 | -506.453850188381 |
| 47 | 2805 | 2570.65484087156 | 234.345159128435 |
| 48 | 3354 | 2631.23668575483 | 722.76331424517 |
| 49 | 2523 | 4066.17987811655 | -1543.17987811655 |
| 50 | 1480 | 2455.28671615871 | -975.286716158715 |
| 51 | 3278 | 2724.16403069891 | 553.835969301092 |
| 52 | 5081 | 3697.03064964533 | 1383.96935035467 |
| 53 | 3332 | 3643.57590474055 | -311.575904740551 |
| 54 | 2789 | 3203.98100844915 | -414.981008449152 |
| 55 | 4111 | 2468.48509657328 | 1642.51490342672 |
| 56 | 2508 | 3739.57951698751 | -1231.57951698751 |
| 57 | 1833 | 3068.58369546386 | -1235.58369546386 |
| 58 | 2371 | 3063.2074990841 | -692.207499084099 |
| 59 | 4268 | 2613.88327571743 | 1654.11672428257 |
| 60 | 2194 | 3037.95228026783 | -843.952280267829 |
| 61 | 2935 | 3624.14413028582 | -689.144130285818 |
| 62 | 3347 | 2249.67681213568 | 1097.32318786432 |
| 63 | 3034 | 3387.29135350528 | -353.291353505282 |
| 64 | 5448 | 4515.77108049326 | 932.228919506744 |
| 65 | 3427 | 3914.55169460708 | -487.551694607082 |
| 66 | 3036 | 3380.27995974523 | -344.279959745231 |
| 67 | 4196 | 3082.51963714715 | 1113.48036285285 |
| 68 | 3009 | 3573.97976385639 | -564.979763856385 |
| 69 | 3369 | 2958.41739524008 | 410.582604759924 |
| 70 | 4168 | 3424.42506261248 | 743.574937387516 |
| 71 | 3403 | 3802.31830771611 | -399.318307716107 |
| 72 | 1779 | 3209.95741803709 | -1430.95741803709 |
| 73 | 2761 | 3801.81297008888 | -1040.81297008888 |
| 74 | 2582 | 2696.15956102752 | -114.159561027518 |
| 75 | 3153 | 3267.70007749484 | -114.700077494836 |
| 76 | 3011 | 4727.06357465555 | -1716.06357465555 |
| 77 | 3419 | 3421.03170426208 | -2.03170426207771 |
| 78 | 4042 | 3025.48516398534 | 1016.51483601466 |
| 79 | 4379 | 3284.80400345793 | 1094.19599654207 |
| 80 | 4602 | 3367.82232487251 | 1234.17767512749 |
| 81 | 3249 | 3270.58967427819 | -21.5896742781852 |
| 82 | 4372 | 3752.93816885106 | 619.061831148945 |
| 83 | 4328 | 3833.70069092486 | 494.299309075145 |
| 84 | 3695 | 3062.41496641441 | 632.585033585591 |
| 85 | 3614 | 4292.14054065653 | -678.140540656534 |
| 86 | 2114 | 3309.40874730426 | -1195.40874730426 |
| 87 | 2839 | 3800.60270310506 | -961.602703105056 |
| 88 | 2490 | 4849.20694047692 | -2359.20694047692 |
| 89 | 2610 | 3775.7680768442 | -1165.7680768442 |
| 90 | 2372 | 3395.78438256001 | -1023.78438256001 |
| 91 | 2833 | 3289.36971071669 | -456.369710716686 |
| 92 | 4018 | 3116.2129331272 | 901.787066872802 |
| 93 | 2734 | 2744.48528448096 | -10.4852844809561 |
| 94 | 3027 | 3258.43517855344 | -231.435178553443 |
| 95 | 3862 | 3152.6806062849 | 709.3193937151 |
| 96 | 3281 | 2588.3553889567 | 692.644611043299 |
| 97 | 2746 | 3348.64903096828 | -602.649030968277 |
| 98 | 2538 | 2418.5012961576 | 119.498703842397 |
| 99 | 1805 | 3070.30084240303 | -1265.30084240303 |
| 100 | 2500 | 3532.82098151766 | -1032.82098151766 |
| 101 | 2601 | 2997.78602949932 | -396.786029499324 |
| 102 | 3178 | 2779.48384681326 | 398.516153186739 |
| 103 | 4193 | 3037.61458031 | 1155.38541969 |
| 104 | 2606 | 3466.49699430429 | -860.496994304295 |
| 105 | 2491 | 2606.30550578729 | -115.305505787291 |
| 106 | 4090 | 3018.26436302452 | 1071.73563697548 |
| 107 | 2786 | 3356.4218589583 | -570.421858958301 |
| 108 | 2280 | 2593.3037604892 | -313.303760489202 |
| 109 | 2403 | 2821.92122026699 | -418.921220266985 |
| 110 | 2934 | 2161.96508043747 | 772.034919562525 |
| 111 | 1601 | 2552.35017926479 | -951.350179264793 |
| 112 | 1946 | 3059.54675440392 | -1113.54675440392 |
| 113 | 2554 | 2669.45320842799 | -115.453208427991 |
| 114 | 2006 | 2678.66755972908 | -672.667559729076 |
| 115 | 2830 | 2857.82222086666 | -27.8222208666612 |
| 116 | 3173 | 2630.34299390388 | 542.657006096117 |
| 117 | 1960 | 2248.55357544721 | -288.553575447211 |
| 118 | 3052 | 2787.92879392821 | 264.071206071789 |
| 119 | 2151 | 2624.80756318571 | -473.80756318571 |
| 120 | 2493 | 2039.88762328524 | 453.112376714763 |
| 121 | 2752 | 2329.77935170728 | 422.220648292717 |
| 122 | 2542 | 2112.06160988637 | 429.938390113629 |
| 123 | 2027 | 2035.07251792627 | -8.07251792627335 |
| 124 | 1940 | 2610.8163644162 | -670.816364416198 |
| 125 | 1877 | 2531.083568767 | -654.083568767003 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 126 | 2313.80295223257 | 1628.14698129813 | 2999.45892316701 |
| 127 | 2745.09503557681 | 1973.47952998438 | 3516.71054116924 |
| 128 | 2656.36295885921 | 1833.09537135798 | 3479.63054636045 |
| 129 | 2027.02842043473 | 1220.80164994958 | 2833.25519091988 |
| 130 | 2710.2071192626 | 1725.52592129111 | 3694.88831723408 |
| 131 | 2346.30979881247 | 1380.41395784141 | 3312.20563978352 |
| 132 | 2068.81340252403 | 1109.73394823056 | 3027.89285681751 |
| 133 | 2253.66374738312 | 1186.0413460532 | 3321.28614871304 |
| 134 | 1986.66942948892 | 943.044831479861 | 3030.29402749797 |
| 135 | 1760.33341447775 | 734.040636458831 | 2786.62619249666 |
| 136 | 2112.19513030919 | 893.746589797347 | 3330.64367082104 |
| 137 | 2138.59488217095 | 1047.05832691954 | 3230.13143742237 |
