Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | 5400 | 5396.01593612222 | 3.98406387777918 | 3.98406387777933 | 0.906822828120423 |
4 | 7300 | 7288.49206398415 | 11.5079360158506 | 11.5079360158505 | 1.71936418266014 |
5 | 7200 | 7188.93280677782 | 11.067193222176 | 11.0671932221759 | -0.101119540804379 |
6 | 7100 | 7089.37007915609 | 10.6299208439139 | 10.6299208439139 | -0.100720645630297 |
7 | 7000 | 6989.80392194735 | 10.196078052651 | 10.196078052651 | -0.10032488521032 |
8 | 10000 | 9978.1250013312 | 21.8749986688027 | 21.8749986688027 | 2.71132835893561 |
9 | 10100 | 10077.8210130239 | 22.178986976097 | 22.178986976097 | 0.0708488426923599 |
10 | 9400 | 9380.62015615741 | 19.3798438425911 | 19.3798438425912 | -0.654923928405836 |
11 | 8500 | 8484.16988499762 | 15.8301150023755 | 15.8301150023755 | -0.83376613392227 |
12 | 8300 | 8285.00000075779 | 14.9999992422055 | 14.9999992422055 | -0.195733225056137 |
13 | 9200 | 9026.77166613274 | -15.7480299875551 | 173.228333867264 | 0.799398072239623 |
14 | 10400 | 10382.545457537 | 17.4545449919918 | 17.4545424630063 | 1.06233520651358 |
15 | 11700 | 11680.2177857896 | 19.7822142103572 | 19.7822142103572 | 1.16430727534313 |
16 | 12200 | 12179.3478260456 | 20.6521739544106 | 20.6521739544104 | 0.435947110233682 |
17 | 10400 | 10382.6401445758 | 17.3598554242295 | 17.3598554242293 | -1.65281124500391 |
18 | 10400 | 10382.6714800544 | 17.3285199455842 | 17.3285199455842 | -0.0157595237464604 |
19 | 9800 | 9783.78378367767 | 16.2162163223349 | 16.2162163223352 | -0.560420526613525 |
20 | 9200 | 9184.8920862088 | 15.1079137911971 | 15.1079137911972 | -0.559411667976525 |
Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
1 | 9368.68694543458 | 8620.60800679957 | 748.078938635012 |
2 | 8650.93455868589 | 8790.08745443389 | -139.152895747997 |
3 | 7751.02440798855 | 8959.56690206821 | -1208.54249407965 |
4 | 7551.05215484653 | 9129.04634970252 | -1577.99419485599 |
5 | 8450.99872935232 | 9298.52579733684 | -847.527067984529 |
6 | 9062.38992807757 | 9468.00524497116 | -405.615316893592 |
7 | 10214.7695050197 | 9637.48469260548 | 577.284812414239 |
8 | 11410.7042393915 | 9806.9641402398 | 1603.7400991517 |
9 | 10447.874698073 | 9976.44358787412 | 471.431110198842 |
10 | 10409.2041097739 | 10145.9230355084 | 263.281074265479 |
11 | 10081.5469772045 | 10315.4024831428 | -233.85550593826 |
12 | 11233.7533716118 | 10484.8819307771 | 748.871440834753 |