| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.393783482668539 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 4050 | 3835.26976495727 | 214.730235042734 |
| 14 | 4100 | 3975.66177495642 | 124.338225043582 |
| 15 | 4150 | 4078.37557111936 | 71.6244288806397 |
| 16 | 4350 | 4308.24821171125 | 41.7517882887523 |
| 17 | 4350 | 4324.27416652102 | 25.7258334789776 |
| 18 | 4350 | 4329.82269836605 | 20.1773016339512 |
| 19 | 4000 | 4087.35297668411 | -87.3529766841089 |
| 20 | 4050 | 4052.53960751377 | -2.53960751376735 |
| 21 | 4350 | 4351.12434223217 | -1.12434223217406 |
| 22 | 4750 | 4696.0997183754 | 53.9002816246002 |
| 23 | 4750 | 4712.74288253347 | 37.2571174665272 |
| 24 | 4700 | 4574.91557688009 | 125.08442311991 |
| 25 | 4300 | 4606.01289544033 | -306.012895440328 |
| 26 | 4400 | 4486.54773244587 | -86.5477324458661 |
| 27 | 4450 | 4474.2621478975 | -24.2621478975043 |
| 28 | 4600 | 4648.26695020142 | -48.2669502014214 |
| 29 | 4500 | 4619.12981415141 | -119.129814151413 |
| 30 | 4500 | 4564.27297293694 | -64.272972936943 |
| 31 | 4200 | 4223.3614971925 | -23.3614971925044 |
| 32 | 4150 | 4265.16218095907 | -115.162180959072 |
| 33 | 4500 | 4520.2559636692 | -20.2559636692013 |
| 34 | 4850 | 4891.05445913579 | -41.0544591357866 |
| 35 | 4900 | 4860.21665376806 | 39.7833462319368 |
| 36 | 4850 | 4776.62649863574 | 73.373501364259 |
| 37 | 4500 | 4526.02259524652 | -26.0225952465198 |
| 38 | 4650 | 4649.85639456187 | 0.14360543813018 |
| 39 | 4600 | 4709.46697710753 | -109.466977107525 |
| 40 | 4700 | 4835.36741737303 | -135.367417373031 |
| 41 | 4750 | 4728.97331742623 | 21.0266825737672 |
| 42 | 4800 | 4762.56291284367 | 37.4370871563333 |
| 43 | 4400 | 4486.50439112987 | -86.504391129869 |
| 44 | 4450 | 4447.7893554144 | 2.21064458560431 |
| 45 | 4750 | 4806.63633465672 | -56.6363346567223 |
| 46 | 5100 | 5150.50044944758 | -50.5004494475806 |
| 47 | 5200 | 5164.94818195637 | 35.0518180436347 |
| 48 | 4850 | 5099.85773603665 | -249.857736036649 |
| 49 | 4600 | 4661.71515475271 | -61.7151547527083 |
| 50 | 4650 | 4787.3561967312 | -137.356196731202 |
| 51 | 4850 | 4726.37388269888 | 123.626117301117 |
| 52 | 5000 | 4928.3612587715 | 71.6387412284957 |
| 53 | 5050 | 4998.29145149359 | 51.7085485064126 |
| 54 | 5150 | 5053.91131724679 | 96.0886827532086 |
| 55 | 4650 | 4725.81345379162 | -75.813453791623 |
| 56 | 4700 | 4745.08885260057 | -45.0888526005656 |
| 57 | 5100 | 5049.63606030069 | 50.3639396993085 |
| 58 | 5450 | 5439.35479073619 | 10.645209263811 |
| 59 | 5550 | 5529.74387133074 | 20.2561286692589 |
| 60 | 5300 | 5286.11024969169 | 13.8897503083072 |
| 61 | 5200 | 5065.88221251344 | 134.117787486555 |
| 62 | 5400 | 5222.78418347262 | 177.215816527383 |
| 63 | 5500 | 5443.8869218691 | 56.1130781309048 |
| 64 | 5500 | 5587.77317218379 | -87.7731721837881 |
| 65 | 5650 | 5582.8475744418 | 67.1524255581999 |
| 66 | 5500 | 5671.45295430816 | -171.452954308158 |
| 67 | 4850 | 5133.79169871408 | -283.791698714077 |
| 68 | 5050 | 5089.79446064861 | -39.7944606486053 |
| 69 | 5550 | 5454.29157176778 | 95.7084282322212 |
| 70 | 6050 | 5837.78806238016 | 212.211937619844 |
| 71 | 6050 | 6013.37708934717 | 36.6229106528253 |
| 72 | 5850 | 5772.3290323997 | 77.6709676002993 |
| 73 | 5600 | 5650.10120707933 | -50.1012070793277 |
| 74 | 5700 | 5760.58751785363 | -60.5875178536307 |
| 75 | 5700 | 5814.63275073735 | -114.632750737346 |
| 76 | 5750 | 5804.05589235152 | -54.0558923515173 |
| 77 | 5950 | 5906.32605879663 | 43.6739412033667 |
| 78 | 5850 | 5841.03947692683 | 8.96052307316768 |
| 79 | 5150 | 5306.32046638117 | -156.320466381168 |
| 80 | 5250 | 5460.43445002235 | -210.434450022345 |
| 81 | 5900 | 5839.88044122909 | 60.119558770908 |
| 82 | 6350 | 6279.98897459861 | 70.0110254013862 |
| 83 | 6400 | 6293.13666270404 | 106.863337295961 |
| 84 | 6200 | 6104.63213571014 | 95.3678642898567 |
| 85 | 5850 | 5911.91545325446 | -61.915453254459 |
| 86 | 5950 | 6011.39253422756 | -61.3925342275616 |
| 87 | 6150 | 6032.35765210281 | 117.642347897188 |
| 88 | 6250 | 6149.96958311601 | 100.030416883994 |
| 89 | 6250 | 6372.16183238045 | -122.16183238045 |
| 90 | 6200 | 6220.52801459422 | -20.5280145942215 |
| 91 | 5200 | 5574.00083917898 | -374.000839178984 |
| 92 | 5750 | 5609.59109680936 | 140.408903190635 |
| 93 | 6200 | 6291.20771447614 | -91.2077144761397 |
| 94 | 6650 | 6677.72243761573 | -27.7224376157346 |
| 95 | 6700 | 6674.72478245336 | 25.2752175466367 |
| 96 | 6550 | 6447.12345590936 | 102.876544090637 |
| 97 | 6100 | 6162.01582253982 | -62.01582253982 |
| 98 | 6250 | 6261.77038189751 | -11.7703818975115 |
| 99 | 6300 | 6410.80978645731 | -110.809786457312 |
| 100 | 6500 | 6427.78439689903 | 72.2156031009717 |
| 101 | 6250 | 6504.32702039508 | -254.327020395081 |
| 102 | 6500 | 6362.26083364638 | 137.739166353623 |
| 103 | 5400 | 5563.77559524583 | -163.775595245826 |
| 104 | 6100 | 5993.99276407773 | 106.007235922268 |
| 105 | 6550 | 6521.65275407992 | 28.3472459200793 |
| 106 | 6950 | 6993.73206933478 | -43.7320693347765 |
| 107 | 7150 | 7016.55813957711 | 133.441860422893 |
| 108 | 7150 | 6878.59425629129 | 271.405743708712 |
| 109 | 6700 | 6559.89016184543 | 140.109838154566 |
| 110 | 6950 | 6769.698083846 | 180.301916153995 |
| 111 | 7050 | 6934.33306394585 | 115.666936054146 |
| 112 | 7050 | 7151.44348116275 | -101.443481162745 |
| 113 | 7100 | 6961.64649368435 | 138.353506315653 |
| 114 | 7250 | 7211.88841061414 | 38.1115893858632 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 115 | 6191.38824928455 | 5965.82226148836 | 6416.95423708074 |
| 116 | 6849.64435073501 | 6607.21962779227 | 7092.06907367776 |
| 117 | 7288.48167351254 | 7030.29670544262 | 7546.66664158247 |
| 118 | 7705.70264007949 | 7432.66562943686 | 7978.73965072213 |
| 119 | 7853.1554395484 | 7566.03361762595 | 8140.27726147084 |
| 120 | 7746.28034057454 | 7445.73305300158 | 8046.82762814749 |
| 121 | 7241.10740054991 | 6927.70924562416 | 7554.50555547565 |
| 122 | 7420.10748407498 | 7094.36504754842 | 7745.84992060153 |
| 123 | 7474.55975516597 | 7136.92405445046 | 7812.19545588149 |
| 124 | 7514.50652247226 | 7165.38247884155 | 7863.63056610297 |
| 125 | 7510.02519691588 | 7149.77899043418 | 7870.27140339758 |
| 126 | 7645.01748251748 | 7273.98236190509 | 8016.05260312987 |
