| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 3650 | 3650 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 3700 | 3677.45960047066 | 0.794117049208448 | 22.5403995293449 | 0.332886750970293 |
| 3 | 3750 | 3723.05751453397 | 3.61228699679859 | 26.9424854660334 | 0.467477079915969 |
| 4 | 3850 | 3788.07404152692 | 6.89496898616727 | 61.9259584730776 | 0.800276530227124 |
| 5 | 3950 | 3872.01587236732 | 9.64731619766805 | 77.9841276326831 | 1.10301136932683 |
| 6 | 3900 | 3904.22281296113 | 10.1872180797063 | -4.2228129611284 | 0.329269386294564 |
| 7 | 3700 | 3822.7442625035 | 8.43225984911154 | -122.744262503495 | -1.3397554000085 |
| 8 | 3700 | 3747.01878871105 | 6.88155700704509 | -47.0187887110495 | -1.22790699103924 |
| 9 | 4000 | 3836.54662490226 | 8.4727304925907 | 163.453375097744 | 1.20330365108141 |
| 10 | 4350 | 4082.81155362784 | 13.3015873270365 | 267.188446372156 | 3.45606046093453 |
| 11 | 4350 | 4262.38345476291 | 16.8182540254382 | 87.6165452370892 | 2.41347007800194 |
| 12 | 4200 | 4280.75279830477 | 16.852002654364 | -80.7527983047662 | 0.0224931723383508 |
| 13 | 4050 | 4231.25488919558 | 17.5464379206668 | -181.254889195584 | -1.01551658591856 |
| 14 | 4100 | 4194.47707820287 | 17.2668909673523 | -94.4770782028688 | -0.811830279228569 |
| 15 | 4150 | 4184.71813274856 | 16.5502527125884 | -34.7181327485585 | -0.366864277450138 |
| 16 | 4350 | 4248.00757455813 | 18.192772343665 | 101.99242544187 | 0.627924864713137 |
| 17 | 4350 | 4264.31142644677 | 18.1277271178564 | 85.6885735532337 | -0.0262858795838957 |
| 18 | 4350 | 4274.41343367714 | 17.8854698772379 | 75.5865663228559 | -0.114500502578317 |
| 19 | 4000 | 4203.39475771203 | 15.5428432341872 | -203.394757712027 | -1.27977341158954 |
| 20 | 4050 | 4187.94592115869 | 14.7929461132079 | -137.945921158691 | -0.44690003672649 |
| 21 | 4350 | 4258.32914240028 | 16.0892218235003 | 91.670857599715 | 0.801193288684091 |
| 22 | 4750 | 4411.57363958341 | 19.2002476604414 | 338.426360416588 | 1.97389932183253 |
| 23 | 4750 | 4551.61686903276 | 21.7669285324417 | 198.383130967236 | 1.73590514499018 |
| 24 | 4700 | 4667.72169925474 | 23.5171264905992 | 32.2783007452556 | 1.35598848682611 |
| 25 | 4300 | 4613.68924412044 | 22.2742343974513 | -313.689244120444 | -1.12262351677728 |
| 26 | 4400 | 4561.98133856674 | 20.861347584203 | -161.981338566736 | -1.06241817583158 |
| 27 | 4450 | 4536.71958176469 | 19.696130217008 | -86.7195817646881 | -0.645626888098959 |
| 28 | 4600 | 4514.54888174339 | 18.4418496295223 | 85.4511182566065 | -0.578735559939311 |
| 29 | 4500 | 4457.18117193796 | 16.0455092800289 | 42.8188280620413 | -1.0565044114461 |
| 30 | 4500 | 4410.71999666955 | 14.1112596975781 | 89.2800033304456 | -0.883085624443554 |
| 31 | 4200 | 4403.97165071238 | 13.4996673460402 | -203.971650712384 | -0.297249886190276 |
| 32 | 4150 | 4390.70188334929 | 12.7585237515203 | -240.701883349293 | -0.382578923445225 |
| 33 | 4500 | 4449.98554452623 | 13.9836553201683 | 50.0144554737702 | 0.664730450087181 |
| 34 | 4850 | 4532.23199451296 | 15.6999520177651 | 317.768005487045 | 0.973854001626034 |
| 35 | 4900 | 4640.93608710667 | 17.9321394692134 | 259.063912893327 | 1.32539768358306 |
| 36 | 4850 | 4717.66860537927 | 19.2922163846177 | 132.331394620726 | 0.838488813639105 |
| 37 | 4500 | 4756.93256954816 | 19.7548041669039 | -256.932569548158 | 0.28497963345906 |
| 38 | 4650 | 4776.94374512553 | 19.7611213190423 | -126.943745125532 | 0.00364075583960229 |
| 39 | 4600 | 4728.87263267471 | 17.927738541488 | -128.87263267471 | -0.953803071260978 |
| 40 | 4700 | 4649.35231322787 | 15.0832265767716 | 50.6476867721307 | -1.36141882412217 |
| 41 | 4750 | 4643.88900492055 | 14.4591386329092 | 106.110995079447 | -0.287597277451357 |
| 42 | 4800 | 4669.43295211984 | 14.7971820124574 | 130.567047880162 | 0.156188880599103 |
| 43 | 4400 | 4652.97368531727 | 13.8630839182901 | -252.97368531727 | -0.442917879865092 |
| 44 | 4450 | 4692.57156313903 | 14.6080046261305 | -242.571563139026 | 0.365534092845166 |
| 45 | 4750 | 4738.82345600369 | 15.4927821144251 | 11.1765439963112 | 0.449351292770004 |
| 46 | 5100 | 4803.03070401005 | 16.8117962580512 | 296.969295989954 | 0.690975648267956 |
| 47 | 5200 | 4897.31155667004 | 18.8574344868902 | 302.688443329964 | 1.09826529691779 |
| 48 | 4850 | 4849.97803220724 | 17.1297484046602 | 0.0219677927610888 | -0.938765794915414 |
| 49 | 4600 | 4838.54609692139 | 16.3778626563904 | -238.546096921395 | -0.40503210388585 |
| 50 | 4650 | 4788.7380830447 | 14.5842238374178 | -138.738083044697 | -0.93609631214715 |
| 51 | 4850 | 4838.21474286205 | 15.567993107492 | 11.7852571379533 | 0.491209918686898 |
| 52 | 5000 | 4896.22149774061 | 16.808324790848 | 103.778502259387 | 0.595470271714621 |
| 53 | 5050 | 4934.10458778785 | 17.4382155267028 | 115.895412212151 | 0.295837355838922 |
| 54 | 5150 | 4980.28012530524 | 18.302337592251 | 169.719874694764 | 0.404707198934914 |
| 55 | 4650 | 4975.6828306254 | 17.6190716790574 | -325.682830625404 | -0.323554462707924 |
| 56 | 4700 | 4982.60262227951 | 17.3050587185967 | -282.602622279508 | -0.151403329991564 |
| 57 | 5100 | 5052.94532112894 | 18.8309835412636 | 47.0546788710587 | 0.750391620496079 |
| 58 | 5450 | 5126.51706331023 | 20.3768601135735 | 323.482936689773 | 0.773914305321377 |
| 59 | 5550 | 5177.85444094211 | 21.2396037045307 | 372.145559057892 | 0.437596057091849 |
| 60 | 5300 | 5234.59359992901 | 22.2240999399059 | 65.406400070992 | 0.501893283341567 |
| 61 | 5200 | 5329.4200196517 | 24.2484040928803 | -129.420019651704 | 1.02636376863001 |
| 62 | 5400 | 5459.83070062813 | 27.2508911114384 | -59.8307006281311 | 1.49871764308614 |
| 63 | 5500 | 5521.11137918867 | 28.2315099548508 | -21.1113791886729 | 0.479281026211779 |
| 64 | 5500 | 5497.3692178095 | 26.7073116921107 | 2.63078219050517 | -0.730721402324604 |
| 65 | 5650 | 5522.18724805824 | 26.6512447524558 | 127.812751941764 | -0.0265639944994492 |
| 66 | 5500 | 5451.98446204306 | 23.7649478600573 | 48.0155379569438 | -1.36399480948641 |
| 67 | 4850 | 5335.9539213361 | 19.6118462835474 | -485.9539213361 | -1.97229542346544 |
| 68 | 5050 | 5340.17503539079 | 19.1583847712418 | -290.175035390789 | -0.217334423387048 |
| 69 | 5550 | 5437.19371639466 | 21.428129006001 | 112.806283605335 | 1.09935924593951 |
| 70 | 6050 | 5602.31008140623 | 25.5747457256525 | 447.689918593765 | 2.02790996519612 |
| 71 | 6050 | 5697.08676850269 | 27.5576790023591 | 352.913231497309 | 0.976516339116714 |
| 72 | 5850 | 5792.16284154083 | 29.4877111105363 | 57.8371584591735 | 0.952938363751932 |
| 73 | 5600 | 5822.59899281277 | 29.5148979493521 | -222.598992812767 | 0.0133859547822774 |
| 74 | 5700 | 5813.88314472999 | 28.4112717271628 | -113.883144729992 | -0.539200459864454 |
| 75 | 5700 | 5765.05451038344 | 26.1609537018733 | -65.0545103834401 | -1.08806196278058 |
| 76 | 5750 | 5741.13506704077 | 24.6890631836332 | 8.86493295922631 | -0.704802968589251 |
| 77 | 5950 | 5741.64442926018 | 23.9740002534896 | 208.355570739821 | -0.34028023449129 |
| 78 | 5850 | 5745.24996773487 | 23.3701608949076 | 104.750032265128 | -0.28687636075913 |
| 79 | 5150 | 5720.22660174051 | 21.9373203197377 | -570.226601740512 | -0.682254213058413 |
| 80 | 5250 | 5686.47066001462 | 20.2951131988924 | -436.470660014617 | -0.78556587987503 |
| 81 | 5900 | 5776.30675629782 | 22.3343740565206 | 123.693243702176 | 0.980834906202164 |
| 82 | 6350 | 5880.63182214765 | 24.7259406520729 | 469.368177852347 | 1.15612448668493 |
| 83 | 6400 | 5994.87752571138 | 27.3272958169773 | 405.122474288616 | 1.2621741732268 |
| 84 | 6200 | 6081.58090054206 | 29.0504240352989 | 118.419099457937 | 0.83726434371258 |
| 85 | 5850 | 6084.76672677909 | 28.2988166918016 | -234.766726779093 | -0.364727645403339 |
| 86 | 5950 | 6060.66267847126 | 26.7707117177943 | -110.662678471257 | -0.73870469463292 |
| 87 | 6150 | 6114.66753996235 | 27.5685249665392 | 35.3324600376476 | 0.383669334440197 |
| 88 | 6250 | 6178.90791237199 | 28.6475782920508 | 71.0920876280104 | 0.516359109258458 |
| 89 | 6250 | 6132.5487699367 | 26.4334439924736 | 117.451230063301 | -1.05608288199271 |
| 90 | 6200 | 6102.91766216862 | 24.7761851258792 | 97.0823378313751 | -0.789701378571293 |
| 91 | 5200 | 5965.15198953533 | 19.9740082873543 | -765.151989535333 | -2.29068480928701 |
| 92 | 5750 | 6069.9467370098 | 22.4748924560211 | -319.946737009803 | 1.19570757456292 |
| 93 | 6200 | 6135.79971332404 | 23.7502731296039 | 64.2002866759595 | 0.611477427946004 |
| 94 | 6650 | 6203.51866933731 | 25.0394415890614 | 446.481330662688 | 0.619708590626368 |
| 95 | 6700 | 6274.59985436849 | 26.386703930706 | 425.400145631515 | 0.648890627102786 |
| 96 | 6550 | 6353.61014680719 | 27.9254165998754 | 196.38985319281 | 0.741703326000884 |
| 97 | 6100 | 6361.9101844292 | 27.3512180554531 | -261.910184429203 | -0.276619123070611 |
| 98 | 6250 | 6379.49981046592 | 27.0651230032637 | -129.499810465924 | -0.137567214244059 |
| 99 | 6300 | 6341.67501814278 | 25.1589471249359 | -41.6750181427777 | -0.914177100632568 |
| 100 | 6500 | 6350.55608358944 | 24.6796997770552 | 149.443916410563 | -0.22926025827636 |
| 101 | 6250 | 6242.61331485954 | 20.768580191238 | 7.38668514045978 | -1.86779729779018 |
| 102 | 6500 | 6268.88483631629 | 20.9309876848883 | 231.115163683712 | 0.0775169121019482 |
| 103 | 5400 | 6267.83484833553 | 20.2824060933064 | -867.834848335535 | -0.309719454801266 |
| 104 | 6100 | 6357.86663063595 | 22.3384106726622 | -257.866630635947 | 0.98294573642113 |
| 105 | 6550 | 6456.26794661296 | 24.5773226490385 | 93.7320533870427 | 1.07190365344606 |
| 106 | 6950 | 6520.56752422996 | 25.7448764372071 | 429.432475770038 | 0.559731007944282 |
| 107 | 7150 | 6637.83066492511 | 28.4320441124558 | 512.169335074885 | 1.28955029236939 |
| 108 | 7150 | 6795.27512713674 | 32.2185305471434 | 354.724872863261 | 1.81793830649555 |
| 109 | 6700 | 6895.84022949941 | 34.2250388508598 | -195.840229499412 | 0.9631109697454 |
| 110 | 6950 | 6981.16708427397 | 35.7265443463375 | -31.1670842739749 | 0.720051559786364 |
| 111 | 7050 | 7038.14360628552 | 36.3516429318604 | 11.8563937144849 | 0.299373176984811 |
| 112 | 7050 | 6971.97653244193 | 33.3324589069425 | 78.0234675580681 | -1.44407915492947 |
| 113 | 7100 | 7024.30306931623 | 33.8923177429866 | 75.6969306837719 | 0.267542450443964 |
| 114 | 7250 | 7051.77208202662 | 33.70291077394 | 198.227917973384 | -0.0904852215538867 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 6152.49073843712 | 7096.23887796515 | -943.748139528028 |
| 2 | 6797.43338639354 | 7131.08999755573 | -333.656611162192 |
| 3 | 7195.73834989797 | 7165.94111714632 | 29.7972327516518 |
| 4 | 7540.64288344569 | 7200.79223673691 | 339.850646708779 |
| 5 | 7658.41148565773 | 7235.64335632749 | 422.768129330237 |
| 6 | 7581.72303648048 | 7270.49447591808 | 311.228560562395 |
| 7 | 7092.63469991405 | 7305.34559550867 | -212.710895594618 |
| 8 | 7327.48865655806 | 7340.19671509926 | -12.7080585411986 |
| 9 | 7444.35216253688 | 7375.04783468984 | 69.3043278470411 |
| 10 | 7478.75615269939 | 7409.89895428043 | 68.8571984189584 |
| 11 | 7517.15544145255 | 7444.75007387102 | 72.4053675815355 |
| 12 | 7668.21343508704 | 7479.6011934616 | 188.612241625439 |
