Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 97.63 | 95.77 | 1.86 |
3 | 100.87 | 97.6298770410519 | 3.24012295894812 |
4 | 100.39 | 100.869785805317 | -0.479785805316794 |
5 | 98.62 | 100.390031717182 | -1.77003171718168 |
6 | 97.42 | 98.6201170114183 | -1.20011701141833 |
7 | 95.62 | 97.4200793360889 | -1.80007933608888 |
8 | 97.22 | 95.6201189977751 | 1.59988100222489 |
9 | 97.56 | 97.2198942367284 | 0.340105763271595 |
10 | 97.06 | 97.5599775166415 | -0.499977516641451 |
11 | 97.68 | 97.0600330519944 | 0.619966948005626 |
12 | 98.18 | 97.6799590158689 | 0.500040984131061 |
13 | 98.54 | 98.17996694381 | 0.360033056190005 |
14 | 98.24 | 98.5399761993087 | -0.299976199308674 |
15 | 98.1 | 98.240019830515 | -0.140019830515016 |
16 | 96.32 | 98.1000092562855 | -1.78000925628552 |
17 | 96.15 | 96.3201176710031 | -0.170117671003098 |
18 | 96.67 | 96.1500112459623 | 0.519988754037684 |
19 | 94.7 | 96.6699656251235 | -1.96996562512354 |
20 | 93.94 | 94.7001302284415 | -0.760130228441454 |
21 | 96.69 | 93.9400502498996 | 2.74994975010037 |
22 | 96.54 | 96.6898182091782 | -0.14981820917815 |
23 | 95.94 | 96.5400099040266 | -0.600009904026578 |
24 | 95.6 | 95.9400396648315 | -0.340039664831551 |
25 | 99.15 | 95.600022478989 | 3.54997752101103 |
26 | 100.33 | 99.1497653217732 | 1.18023467822677 |
27 | 99.86 | 100.329921978272 | -0.469921978271728 |
28 | 96.09 | 99.8600310651141 | -3.77003106511405 |
29 | 94.42 | 96.0902492252979 | -1.67024922529792 |
30 | 93.85 | 94.420110415101 | -0.570110415100984 |
31 | 93.73 | 93.8500376882672 | -0.120037688267175 |
32 | 94.63 | 93.7300079353268 | 0.899992064673171 |
33 | 95.54 | 94.6299405042594 | 0.910059495740654 |
34 | 95.48 | 95.5399398387321 | -0.0599398387320917 |
35 | 95.84 | 95.4800039624406 | 0.359996037559398 |
36 | 96.29 | 95.8399762017559 | 0.450023798244146 |
37 | 97.63 | 96.2899702502942 | 1.34002974970583 |
38 | 98.8 | 97.6299114147051 | 1.17008858529488 |
39 | 99.84 | 98.7999226489991 | 1.04007735100089 |
40 | 100.73 | 99.8399312436468 | 0.890068756353244 |
41 | 100.44 | 100.729941160259 | -0.289941160259133 |
42 | 100.54 | 100.440019167129 | 0.0999808328709264 |
43 | 100.25 | 100.539993390571 | -0.289993390570956 |
44 | 100.29 | 100.250019170582 | 0.0399808294181412 |
45 | 100.7 | 100.289997356989 | 0.41000264301114 |
46 | 100.62 | 100.699972895971 | -0.0799728959711246 |
47 | 100.43 | 100.620005286765 | -0.190005286765128 |
48 | 99.73 | 100.430012560672 | -0.70001256067215 |
49 | 99.17 | 99.7300462757033 | -0.5600462757033 |
50 | 98.9 | 99.1700370229575 | -0.27003702295751 |
51 | 98.94 | 98.900017851327 | 0.0399821486729621 |
52 | 98.91 | 98.9399973569016 | -0.0299973569016316 |
53 | 99.5 | 98.9100019830341 | 0.589998016965893 |
54 | 99.52 | 99.4999609970239 | 0.0200390029761053 |
55 | 99.1 | 99.5199986752824 | -0.4199986752824 |
56 | 99.12 | 99.1000277648362 | 0.0199722351638201 |
57 | 99 | 99.1199986796962 | -0.119998679696224 |
58 | 98.66 | 99.0000079327481 | -0.34000793274808 |
59 | 98.3 | 98.6600224768913 | -0.360022476891274 |
60 | 98.18 | 98.300023799992 | -0.120023799991969 |
61 | 97.95 | 98.1800079344087 | -0.230007934408718 |
62 | 97.84 | 97.9500152051256 | -0.110015205125634 |
63 | 98.61 | 97.8400072727709 | 0.769992727229081 |
64 | 99.54 | 98.6099490981205 | 0.930050901879468 |
65 | 99.64 | 99.539938517161 | 0.100061482839024 |
66 | 99.69 | 99.6399933852394 | 0.0500066147605764 |
67 | 99.77 | 99.6899966942147 | 0.0800033057853398 |
68 | 99.85 | 99.7699947112245 | 0.0800052887754532 |
69 | 99.87 | 99.8499947110935 | 0.0200052889065461 |
70 | 100.23 | 99.8699986775111 | 0.36000132248887 |
71 | 100.46 | 100.229976201407 | 0.230023798593493 |
72 | 100.36 | 100.459984793826 | -0.0999847938256408 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 100.360006609691 | 98.2146165920672 | 102.505396627315 |
74 | 100.360006609691 | 97.3260672341015 | 103.39394598528 |
75 | 100.360006609691 | 96.6442458609633 | 104.075767358418 |
76 | 100.360006609691 | 96.0694393105081 | 104.650573908874 |
77 | 100.360006609691 | 95.563022395015 | 105.156990824367 |
78 | 100.360006609691 | 95.1051852651652 | 105.614827954217 |
79 | 100.360006609691 | 94.6841597856553 | 106.035853433727 |
80 | 100.360006609691 | 94.2922782887336 | 106.427734930648 |
81 | 100.360006609691 | 93.9242147560042 | 106.795798463378 |
82 | 100.360006609691 | 93.5760913249152 | 107.143921894467 |
83 | 100.360006609691 | 93.2449805100869 | 107.475032709295 |
84 | 100.360006609691 | 92.9286079388431 | 107.791405280539 |