| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 2755 | 2755 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2765 | 2760.05530514637 | 0.452333909061897 | 0.59075880747128 | 0.0209441710409316 |
| 3 | 3000 | 2872.67694453885 | 7.5187376630799 | 13.4508694980534 | 0.523777838362452 |
| 4 | 2890 | 2882.28005418524 | 7.61396221102989 | 5.40571852276129 | 0.0103708473539649 |
| 5 | 2940 | 2908.786396179 | 8.29223408752339 | 9.35421515972569 | 0.0967913245703246 |
| 6 | 3290 | 3077.8264027489 | 13.1662947211581 | 22.2880267153787 | 0.835717932219537 |
| 7 | 2815 | 2965.94659300338 | 9.78516200660732 | -1.59397110569899 | -0.655183192465424 |
| 8 | 3035 | 2996.03368746513 | 10.2930423034528 | 14.5679586477814 | 0.106832738360742 |
| 9 | 3070 | 3029.85282226424 | 10.8503346356971 | 11.7716174565547 | 0.124109120924879 |
| 10 | 3040 | 3035.91547912547 | 10.7414259840035 | 9.87207475217228 | -0.0252954884274238 |
| 11 | 2685 | 2884.2119742211 | 7.16321934918343 | -2.54763240272269 | -0.859127837187555 |
| 12 | 2540 | 2733.32510991573 | 3.77539264111122 | -1.77523179767184 | -0.836472732379252 |
| 13 | 3090 | 2846.05302925034 | -7.03037707147004 | 90.7176296582229 | 0.775087009768186 |
| 14 | 2995 | 2922.28290465837 | -4.031648736478 | -6.16097591518903 | 0.369104430374962 |
| 15 | 3440 | 3155.04824262771 | 2.75571406673361 | 30.8499512578564 | 1.15710598360729 |
| 16 | 3335 | 3239.90731158696 | 4.50734572731005 | 0.838178790707708 | 0.421786321707903 |
| 17 | 3205 | 3229.43986573839 | 4.25265479517295 | -6.76796685809037 | -0.0785060187129748 |
| 18 | 3285 | 3247.59152927617 | 4.45488867239513 | 20.8050662927409 | 0.0735159195396738 |
| 19 | 2790 | 3057.43243812794 | 1.89773728460449 | -33.5859317416075 | -1.03373172701699 |
| 20 | 3225 | 3124.24672520097 | 2.69672271736489 | 22.5142827817483 | 0.345563156106393 |
| 21 | 3360 | 3226.50050974909 | 3.87114688380317 | 13.3128232299977 | 0.530582072930713 |
| 22 | 3275 | 3247.38816759063 | 4.06621678746073 | 7.04964900049778 | 0.0907492678756883 |
| 23 | 3505 | 3359.83147819915 | 5.28151048459722 | 14.1288292384274 | 0.578219239333096 |
| 24 | 3185 | 3293.19905317804 | 4.55878391088019 | -21.1000941911748 | -0.383912304218851 |
| 25 | 3470 | 3367.13086048548 | 1.52240163218936 | 12.5245435577651 | 0.42754373497045 |
| 26 | 3510 | 3444.68675250694 | 3.17998977505002 | -14.6007362613666 | 0.366664873085102 |
| 27 | 3840 | 3610.88665020373 | 6.3416241953323 | 48.6442227848072 | 0.821870829539248 |
| 28 | 3605 | 3614.70186778094 | 6.30461368214972 | -6.77946755516894 | -0.0131650274318902 |
| 29 | 3655 | 3637.86969120109 | 6.50141139831524 | -2.75359581169036 | 0.0891270735378891 |
| 30 | 3555 | 3590.93986226471 | 5.9683975637574 | 27.6008879405783 | -0.28416142328493 |
| 31 | 3140 | 3416.670372386 | 4.34309220480883 | -61.4581192828317 | -0.961376086203246 |
| 32 | 3380 | 3391.53528743885 | 4.09348631155208 | 23.7358699549146 | -0.157468642945348 |
| 33 | 3255 | 3330.05830424971 | 3.55951458646548 | 3.48510673213183 | -0.350548386960123 |
| 34 | 3460 | 3385.67070424485 | 3.9729857249108 | 11.9384863931774 | 0.278408105920196 |
| 35 | 3245 | 3322.10300775833 | 3.45055441260512 | 3.8910013031354 | -0.361355423903261 |
| 36 | 3120 | 3248.60996269229 | 2.99647827465946 | -36.1093823268408 | -0.412025594187607 |
| 37 | 3265 | 3257.87906334101 | 2.83170181182552 | -0.791477232413993 | 0.0367081555963671 |
| 38 | 3220 | 3256.51733324947 | 2.76936390718226 | -31.9191702290948 | -0.0210164041306559 |
| 39 | 3140 | 3188.47008257766 | 1.71031450442666 | 30.7866912280191 | -0.362302626303826 |
| 40 | 3050 | 3134.51456194542 | 1.0653937773683 | -20.1719580415602 | -0.291913096445653 |
| 41 | 3300 | 3204.00338167057 | 1.69693886541977 | 15.6768320088896 | 0.362951830483317 |
| 42 | 2950 | 3083.27134543865 | 0.734370633198837 | 11.4464604037687 | -0.652736534901246 |
| 43 | 2630 | 2916.25570131337 | -0.455685089986559 | -87.3112367201683 | -0.896507538229563 |
| 44 | 2795 | 2849.17537370363 | -0.899573485146218 | 24.969736646905 | -0.356488711717502 |
| 45 | 2840 | 2845.12468563927 | -0.919794162447546 | -1.37810821531296 | -0.0168714035941272 |
| 46 | 2945 | 2880.289121815 | -0.693800711116763 | 21.7860756015465 | 0.19326959897581 |
| 47 | 2790 | 2840.18298703838 | -0.929831873785997 | -3.27389937593978 | -0.211154029846526 |
| 48 | 2605 | 2755.78730915282 | -1.2393976285917 | -51.1455102642265 | -0.447714525459403 |
| 49 | 4590 | 3444.24722587838 | -13.3266841282528 | 292.72320207262 | 3.92762741148829 |
| 50 | 4230 | 3808.12869366563 | -9.2507078447816 | -0.778149659934186 | 1.9320109651438 |
| 51 | 4245 | 3992.24054594209 | -6.87899388252887 | 35.1483195327363 | 0.998153776004594 |
| 52 | 4300 | 4140.39082380877 | -5.35490990899522 | -19.209831982728 | 0.815846499848134 |
| 53 | 4475 | 4272.54926613221 | -4.27360398750164 | 41.718640995015 | 0.730874476935846 |
| 54 | 3910 | 4113.09221958456 | -5.30915156562785 | -20.588309040509 | -0.828513028122279 |
| 55 | 4100 | 4134.23422775083 | -5.1503861667467 | -65.4328289258085 | 0.141519041395965 |
| 56 | 3500 | 3859.41872372172 | -6.6689354556719 | -40.8937524773134 | -1.44427273111014 |
| 57 | 4390 | 4069.89459371682 | -5.49094319680583 | 63.4218964254818 | 1.16362765653377 |
| 58 | 3550 | 3846.92656364722 | -6.63885645683623 | -39.7307986302586 | -1.16578795502363 |
| 59 | 3865 | 3843.81576170941 | -6.62158606753174 | 17.0091335393327 | 0.0189174663177029 |
| 60 | 3715 | 3844.47567426786 | -6.60409786965307 | -138.120601842861 | 0.0391024001783912 |
| 61 | 3310 | 3556.01311492801 | -3.14512105874119 | 97.8063655901564 | -1.57835191245377 |
| 62 | 3945 | 3722.16450288488 | -1.75569151298004 | 30.7853865101258 | 0.878910972719122 |
| 63 | 5050 | 4279.22971925362 | 4.05719901163148 | 139.410402704027 | 2.90301619588526 |
| 64 | 4350 | 4342.12626435459 | 4.56726792385768 | -59.874779272172 | 0.310355359714913 |
| 65 | 4060 | 4202.73508532284 | 3.5603702016833 | 24.9679240083183 | -0.766046058913059 |
| 66 | 4345 | 4264.16038541038 | 3.90298496359597 | 13.0480152988914 | 0.309199862559182 |
| 67 | 4360 | 4317.13969438389 | 4.16338732621593 | -14.7904123164195 | 0.262752223029942 |
| 68 | 4915 | 4591.50334665576 | 5.50586653275753 | 5.66472265391697 | 1.44803569867085 |
| 69 | 4650 | 4585.76676296372 | 5.45212658940452 | 77.4667946252847 | -0.0602803060045769 |
| 70 | 4805 | 4691.23956844281 | 5.91389082110388 | -4.0293375926941 | 0.536459922409987 |
| 71 | 4775 | 4719.98515810368 | 6.00792089441534 | 28.1065763366269 | 0.122492626970568 |
| 72 | 4220 | 4562.77781001133 | 5.74771496735287 | -149.790356097754 | -0.877171177402744 |
| 73 | 3975 | 4325.01851894528 | 7.8908062361212 | -55.9993374942822 | -1.3483806016355 |
| 74 | 3820 | 4132.02867387103 | 6.59353899589689 | -82.4141551007821 | -1.05216518001339 |
| 75 | 5515 | 4649.91372768031 | 11.1966435334761 | 285.511254877574 | 2.66909056005051 |
| 76 | 4895 | 4788.40620208929 | 12.1913041817948 | -39.8134203556071 | 0.672574538911006 |
| 77 | 5535 | 5099.68056345911 | 14.1012874147026 | 87.7482543539858 | 1.59278173636652 |
| 78 | 4230 | 4756.32090634824 | 12.169486056546 | -108.695856551941 | -1.91115970716921 |
| 79 | 3695 | 4334.34435793747 | 10.0744100347038 | -130.81748768712 | -2.32551052644305 |
| 80 | 5590 | 4835.68020865786 | 12.2880234987851 | 178.157542206278 | 2.63388150640542 |
| 81 | 5000 | 4897.39776417721 | 12.5016088445738 | 44.5909613217198 | 0.26514378115816 |
| 82 | 4875 | 4898.31513087758 | 12.4538129621682 | -9.71304006277447 | -0.062157121907818 |
| 83 | 4360 | 4659.42288005814 | 11.5670296583083 | -4.04635520645465 | -1.34902944250061 |
| 84 | 4405 | 4599.85660895373 | 11.488991232 | -110.996902557403 | -0.382498442978631 |
| 85 | 4500 | 4586.21235989118 | 11.6492526129792 | -56.0991918552988 | -0.138084131566697 |
| 86 | 4070 | 4445.89332398637 | 10.8526709568005 | -201.335993500234 | -0.800780256617032 |
| 87 | 4800 | 4485.69597733683 | 11.0814014820884 | 281.389788576865 | 0.151722379283219 |
| 88 | 4080 | 4356.28965628641 | 10.078891003157 | -114.792926851073 | -0.743291913296155 |
| 89 | 4850 | 4500.83315552755 | 10.8756896821217 | 193.164261226675 | 0.716513231213196 |
| 90 | 4105 | 4371.90085834883 | 10.1731420323805 | -103.882390908108 | -0.74777520614226 |
| 91 | 3805 | 4225.27271460636 | 9.47163030123416 | -236.981063265846 | -0.840198717841445 |
| 92 | 5060 | 4498.41514780808 | 10.5691161058829 | 252.982633456772 | 1.41412515860971 |
| 93 | 4060 | 4313.56971724063 | 9.79327242159545 | -24.7002493554709 | -1.04855251559805 |
| 94 | 4600 | 4420.50253907118 | 10.1562339874727 | 65.6685309968796 | 0.521379696018096 |
| 95 | 4635 | 4514.80189899592 | 10.4140882530053 | 21.5105669139037 | 0.451755464018938 |
| 96 | 3900 | 4314.78347578758 | 10.2457294996591 | -167.238500348743 | -1.13193042138879 |
| 97 | 4120 | 4246.5574007073 | 10.6084133159167 | -33.09298012722 | -0.428703978032426 |
| 98 | 3960 | 4214.09178497075 | 10.4199119032715 | -204.453034574457 | -0.227929123292227 |
| 99 | 4400 | 4170.89130378561 | 10.0441776775216 | 290.236554092339 | -0.281929787645082 |
| 100 | 3700 | 4034.3295627736 | 9.08081753073232 | -165.809274919188 | -0.776578255723755 |
| 101 | 3970 | 3919.28388224793 | 8.39134579430847 | 194.563590206235 | -0.661727182119662 |
| 102 | 4550 | 4213.60858331638 | 9.74406343848969 | 3.45010142183739 | 1.52978067102294 |
| 103 | 5140 | 4719.26687389486 | 11.8284808590571 | -158.129357828268 | 2.65797762894882 |
| 104 | 5000 | 4745.16963847187 | 11.8832829591201 | 238.381418165274 | 0.075502784572158 |
| 105 | 3650 | 4324.18814934263 | 10.2870871445431 | -167.938919518299 | -2.32324868908221 |
| 106 | 4300 | 4282.71024123922 | 10.1103555790256 | 77.863865153237 | -0.277907829831607 |
| 107 | 3650 | 4003.4845897277 | 9.3306639040891 | -14.6028352530757 | -1.55379448098621 |
| 108 | 3355 | 3795.3012806413 | 9.19283902741449 | -184.836251397004 | -1.17025492099277 |
| 109 | 4000 | 3880.91223054172 | 8.93908156709528 | 28.4865588769113 | 0.415757487227271 |
| 110 | 3450 | 3786.74282492432 | 8.55257538453145 | -217.652211188592 | -0.547242910705515 |
| 111 | 3295 | 3453.68504266272 | 6.41093847500209 | 231.701131268361 | -1.8010362565647 |
| 112 | 3390 | 3484.53888344723 | 6.55967813263443 | -122.642755800891 | 0.129612058745619 |
| 113 | 3415 | 3403.75726884191 | 6.10194691718686 | 112.388355245925 | -0.465802525354759 |
| 114 | 3440 | 3450.51096464385 | 6.28452489285007 | -57.7997255152325 | 0.217540594066967 |
| 115 | 3680 | 3613.05184839048 | 6.90733601117588 | -115.258221027493 | 0.837663227530892 |
| 116 | 3900 | 3617.4587254762 | 6.89814671560257 | 285.460666065202 | -0.0134166838862134 |
| 117 | 3965 | 3828.4212122922 | 7.60230248682878 | -101.845148039913 | 1.0954693478298 |
| 118 | 4295 | 3980.32552856427 | 8.05551007162811 | 145.978533688924 | 0.77485930389121 |
| 119 | 4210 | 4078.98388829416 | 8.27279078771536 | 25.0013635287173 | 0.486651168787205 |
| 120 | 4100 | 4175.13226020833 | 8.32131570548094 | -178.21395225507 | 0.47282481149524 |
| 121 | 4690 | 4369.40375777547 | 7.88648195480896 | 100.922984008148 | 1.00855408671598 |
| 122 | 3860 | 4239.143219525 | 7.43255243865148 | -219.329340672566 | -0.734810165748464 |
| 123 | 4250 | 4148.95344302158 | 6.88079235071993 | 212.848312978088 | -0.515866609021305 |
| 124 | 4495 | 4336.64240300566 | 7.90396052567612 | -49.627761062687 | 0.95968774229995 |
| 125 | 3800 | 4083.59389250525 | 6.60810754263058 | 18.4741808497584 | -1.39217524868227 |
| 126 | 3845 | 4014.93891621482 | 6.28538508875714 | -82.448108635567 | -0.402829987649169 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 4370.11130731493 | 4112.63799834962 | 257.47330896531 |
| 2 | 4382.36686206216 | 4123.53547372768 | 258.83138833448 |
| 3 | 4058.43836267009 | 4134.43294910573 | -75.9945864356397 |
| 4 | 4330.15266206177 | 4145.33042448379 | 184.822237577981 |
| 5 | 4089.38932325554 | 4156.22789986184 | -66.8385766063061 |
| 6 | 3883.65311715504 | 4167.1253752399 | -283.472258084862 |
| 7 | 4502.33091490151 | 4178.02285061796 | 324.308064283552 |
| 8 | 3824.63653333233 | 4188.92032599601 | -364.283792663685 |
| 9 | 4187.42175152608 | 4199.81780137407 | -12.3960498479872 |
| 10 | 4425.10858237863 | 4210.71527675212 | 214.393305626504 |
| 11 | 3963.32395580109 | 4221.61275213018 | -258.288796329085 |
| 12 | 4053.95598268797 | 4232.51022750823 | -178.554244820263 |
