| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 2850 | 2850 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2360 | 2390.93516564164 | -24.9834563968677 | -30.9351656416376 | -0.849681738082864 |
| 3 | 2880 | 2862.33815013699 | -20.1815494246303 | 17.6618498630109 | 1.5208808171089 |
| 4 | 3000 | 3018.92014179114 | -19.5041091876806 | -18.9201417911362 | 0.542429789371855 |
| 5 | 3120 | 3133.99625633718 | -18.9293324695352 | -13.9962563371808 | 0.41292958559269 |
| 6 | 2910 | 2944.14863120525 | -19.6834938186398 | -34.1486312052487 | -0.524417786193217 |
| 7 | 3380 | 3364.51375984684 | -17.7487147458632 | 15.4862401531572 | 1.35016581136517 |
| 8 | 3730 | 3730.5318000586 | -16.069959848121 | -0.531800058595636 | 1.17747090559649 |
| 9 | 2960 | 3033.20840965689 | -19.0368367623731 | -73.2084096568883 | -2.09019962151597 |
| 10 | 4070 | 4003.26609090221 | -14.7479448683317 | 66.7339090977927 | 3.03468156576948 |
| 11 | 4660 | 4650.34909167469 | -11.8905102875321 | 9.6509083253062 | 2.03057347094241 |
| 12 | 3880 | 3955.4604830522 | -14.8266567155945 | -75.4604830522014 | -2.09549906180333 |
| 13 | 4190 | 3974.87710618908 | -16.2349707661132 | 215.122893810923 | 0.124842628706446 |
| 14 | 4140 | 4181.1063933901 | -11.3549688809884 | -41.1063933901004 | 0.592446514606678 |
| 15 | 4060 | 4061.16381757625 | -12.2524826506997 | -1.16381757624551 | -0.330926962650309 |
| 16 | 4250 | 4245.36785320773 | -11.7950398199581 | 4.6321467922735 | 0.602382413784459 |
| 17 | 4380 | 4360.25781585773 | -11.5320264026512 | 19.7421841422705 | 0.38832958561806 |
| 18 | 4780 | 4784.31527902613 | -10.5206962877114 | -4.31527902613319 | 1.33515360867654 |
| 19 | 4460 | 4515.37536782669 | -11.1338060144266 | -55.3753678266905 | -0.792096577690032 |
| 20 | 4820 | 4721.68951451943 | -10.6197849013178 | 98.3104854805726 | 0.666512987052104 |
| 21 | 4580 | 4705.63185446492 | -10.6325989460803 | -125.63185446492 | -0.0166679287453706 |
| 22 | 4630 | 4620.31237474043 | -10.8127568053454 | 9.68762525956923 | -0.228939489737051 |
| 23 | 5030 | 4934.33437827851 | -9.96993729692881 | 95.6656217214871 | 0.995974977424382 |
| 24 | 4370 | 4503.82881328161 | -10.1603886613414 | -133.828813281607 | -1.28787829107521 |
| 25 | 4240 | 4172.0164234274 | -4.72380612025983 | 67.9835765726024 | -1.06036351993745 |
| 26 | 4220 | 4229.41405605876 | -3.95892932497114 | -9.41405605876426 | 0.177577264770211 |
| 27 | 4070 | 4094.66389461782 | -4.95394487222165 | -24.6638946178206 | -0.397075773088062 |
| 28 | 4290 | 4256.26658289792 | -4.54337569846206 | 33.733417102076 | 0.510622884654694 |
| 29 | 4340 | 4352.2588605349 | -4.3877208333525 | -12.2588605349009 | 0.308118649718488 |
| 30 | 4250 | 4238.06445442538 | -4.57639129588342 | 11.935545574624 | -0.336495575716239 |
| 31 | 4520 | 4544.63782148069 | -4.00634960146117 | -24.637821480692 | 0.953476730717301 |
| 32 | 4680 | 4579.43785840783 | -3.93467817944772 | 100.562141592168 | 0.118916942986886 |
| 33 | 4200 | 4343.95016740749 | -4.36705629706623 | -143.95016740749 | -0.709579456306979 |
| 34 | 4490 | 4487.71104669435 | -4.0711402169676 | 2.28895330565019 | 0.453999281205514 |
| 35 | 4840 | 4678.37077698086 | -3.69433289022243 | 161.629223019143 | 0.596898151175006 |
| 36 | 3840 | 4036.39940227252 | -3.07344713557521 | -196.399402272521 | -1.95523678323278 |
| 37 | 3940 | 3897.66563229513 | -1.81739346626091 | 42.3343677048701 | -0.431802339494144 |
| 38 | 3510 | 3538.58274208873 | -4.61196411848714 | -28.5827420887262 | -1.0516430243787 |
| 39 | 3240 | 3304.13325705672 | -6.18151539392375 | -64.1332570567172 | -0.696505410130284 |
| 40 | 3410 | 3366.89341237668 | -5.99053062203994 | 43.1065876233156 | 0.211291524718632 |
| 41 | 3290 | 3295.92854641104 | -6.08456901542348 | -5.92854641103938 | -0.199129103254971 |
| 42 | 3190 | 3226.17033284558 | -6.17593537043513 | -36.1703328455837 | -0.195109435708579 |
| 43 | 3790 | 3741.77147666641 | -5.35786060861717 | 48.2285233335887 | 1.5987449828034 |
| 44 | 4090 | 3946.23241578602 | -5.01658328272029 | 143.767584213979 | 0.642891863203049 |
| 45 | 4180 | 4304.32657288846 | -4.40055639002151 | -124.326572888458 | 1.11266273441914 |
| 46 | 5020 | 4968.47051404131 | -3.18609907195555 | 51.5294859586921 | 2.04901384975604 |
| 47 | 5910 | 5608.3247146861 | -2.28603014811138 | 301.675285313895 | 1.97042417086798 |
| 48 | 5850 | 6005.62054319636 | -2.87974205406965 | -155.620543196355 | 1.22489599964308 |
| 49 | 6660 | 6497.54828557293 | -5.64172585981343 | 162.451714427066 | 1.54892442424548 |
| 50 | 6950 | 6912.34069506987 | -3.37463679887471 | 37.6593049301322 | 1.25578486528752 |
| 51 | 6850 | 6936.05895851789 | -3.21129503306828 | -86.0589585178943 | 0.0820738203471694 |
| 52 | 6360 | 6390.79768782454 | -4.83109695160106 | -30.797687824544 | -1.66041849797427 |
| 53 | 5600 | 5681.42647083664 | -5.8898010980731 | -81.4264708366403 | -2.15927359667697 |
| 54 | 5290 | 5399.09687979039 | -6.24779859004665 | -109.096879790386 | -0.847055546446172 |
| 55 | 5630 | 5552.36949478175 | -6.02383125952848 | 77.6305052182491 | 0.4887546986008 |
| 56 | 5410 | 5331.19978596428 | -6.3480215357559 | 78.8002140357183 | -0.659186378252888 |
| 57 | 5020 | 5228.30485075648 | -6.50395667133181 | -208.304850756483 | -0.29584442054061 |
| 58 | 5070 | 5106.79636650084 | -6.69438072156044 | -36.7963665008381 | -0.352465609159757 |
| 59 | 5370 | 5107.23638677746 | -6.68748225007131 | 262.763613222539 | 0.0218551402535487 |
| 60 | 4860 | 5077.63855029683 | -6.65157087095814 | -217.638550296834 | -0.070265075827755 |
| 61 | 4440 | 4446.72817637994 | -4.4576882082706 | -6.72817637994251 | -1.93676405892819 |
| 62 | 4220 | 4210.61157818298 | -5.37918890822221 | 9.38842181701804 | -0.69746181962686 |
| 63 | 3720 | 3792.25269373696 | -7.56520811990124 | -72.2526937369605 | -1.25161809098304 |
| 64 | 3650 | 3603.12714156563 | -8.12621502964045 | 46.8728584343725 | -0.555836307558506 |
| 65 | 3650 | 3675.55987107606 | -7.99688308444725 | -25.5598710760569 | 0.246895587172165 |
| 66 | 3040 | 3241.76849455383 | -8.52443688478294 | -201.768494553826 | -1.30471138384366 |
| 67 | 3530 | 3390.49967532139 | -8.32001316575854 | 139.500324678608 | 0.481810960357542 |
| 68 | 3520 | 3425.07229829869 | -8.25872758440705 | 94.9277017013074 | 0.13141848621106 |
| 69 | 3030 | 3255.73548014205 | -8.50806451816283 | -225.735480142054 | -0.493592332319466 |
| 70 | 2920 | 3004.62051090315 | -8.86883337335742 | -84.620510903148 | -0.743484660176813 |
| 71 | 3530 | 3229.00512691369 | -8.71829912738359 | 300.994873086312 | 0.714399371113272 |
| 72 | 2920 | 3081.86417478151 | -8.51708635882596 | -161.864174781513 | -0.4246175784309 |
| 73 | 3520 | 3420.61588603263 | -9.29919592034974 | 99.3841139673745 | 1.07187686122467 |
| 74 | 3380 | 3328.66692351232 | -9.55643476233269 | 51.333076487681 | -0.249988613839612 |
| 75 | 2920 | 3019.96765793169 | -10.9487512927327 | -99.967657931691 | -0.907333702238398 |
| 76 | 3000 | 2966.81293144062 | -11.0795450580048 | 33.1870685593788 | -0.129140465485583 |
| 77 | 2860 | 2845.45836421027 | -11.2680155919635 | 14.5416357897335 | -0.337951391902765 |
| 78 | 2760 | 2963.3661197404 | -11.1086517565293 | -203.366119740402 | 0.395824413755797 |
| 79 | 2810 | 2720.2092807087 | -11.3959332415771 | 89.7907192913022 | -0.710974584184767 |
| 80 | 3400 | 3199.74732709751 | -10.7237383270784 | 200.252672902494 | 1.50419752899918 |
| 81 | 2730 | 2970.48676065586 | -11.045774093196 | -240.486760655861 | -0.669669724632679 |
| 82 | 2670 | 2809.05247509737 | -11.2441135849604 | -139.052475097372 | -0.460826574348596 |
| 83 | 2900 | 2609.23229595212 | -11.3235996771996 | 290.767704047879 | -0.577503307451385 |
| 84 | 2240 | 2463.61759982555 | -11.1540339798157 | -223.617599825549 | -0.411929942019094 |
| 85 | 2920 | 2747.97494560211 | -11.5791071945865 | 172.025054397891 | 0.909290716359733 |
| 86 | 2650 | 2581.97032962057 | -11.9744343415626 | 68.0296703794342 | -0.468415294289982 |
| 87 | 2370 | 2476.13296639768 | -12.3606951698895 | -106.132966397683 | -0.284950517449623 |
| 88 | 2560 | 2503.76164312076 | -12.2389011365215 | 56.2383568792368 | 0.122301948223904 |
| 89 | 2430 | 2439.54321391075 | -12.3322448805222 | -9.54321391075403 | -0.159282522141581 |
| 90 | 1930 | 2150.12043509403 | -12.6805923964579 | -220.12043509403 | -0.849083842849611 |
| 91 | 2360 | 2307.67976706535 | -12.4754107733404 | 52.3202329346497 | 0.52161290181332 |
| 92 | 2470 | 2251.93724780312 | -12.5324535503717 | 218.062752196883 | -0.132572007964375 |
| 93 | 2720 | 2841.9926084331 | -11.6943930807988 | -121.992608433104 | 1.8465218608525 |
| 94 | 2750 | 2869.5945710048 | -11.6487515353736 | -119.594571004801 | 0.120399743530062 |
| 95 | 3010 | 2730.31190717127 | -11.6836844836691 | 279.688092828727 | -0.390853244260285 |
| 96 | 2610 | 2853.41671567218 | -11.8255449213068 | -243.416715672176 | 0.413387806415155 |
| 97 | 3440 | 3192.08550115479 | -12.1379682273061 | 247.914498845211 | 1.0763639733637 |
| 98 | 3540 | 3430.72836499435 | -11.5879932549477 | 109.271635005655 | 0.762087236038636 |
| 99 | 2790 | 2982.2125970079 | -13.1898899058688 | -192.212597007898 | -1.32757735956799 |
| 100 | 3060 | 2985.85176688573 | -13.1401615778039 | 74.1482331142701 | 0.0514509660696676 |
| 101 | 3050 | 3011.03020362364 | -13.0688724752247 | 38.9697963763601 | 0.11740613843609 |
| 102 | 3000 | 3203.75472802594 | -12.8024708676083 | -203.754728025941 | 0.630616735293665 |
| 103 | 3200 | 3152.89622720622 | -12.8478092077686 | 47.1037727937774 | -0.116606847659422 |
| 104 | 3530 | 3360.08461330346 | -12.567819499828 | 169.915386696543 | 0.674218535072173 |
| 105 | 3640 | 3710.4556862152 | -12.0946265391966 | -70.455686215199 | 1.11214056270999 |
| 106 | 3830 | 3905.37073768301 | -11.8832828640536 | -75.3707376830146 | 0.634186978395304 |
| 107 | 4460 | 4165.24328832924 | -11.8339806534688 | 294.756711670763 | 0.832183945287297 |
| 108 | 3420 | 3787.27555718752 | -11.5228517840844 | -367.275557187517 | -1.12265715519781 |
| 109 | 5180 | 4795.45999418803 | -12.0435789274449 | 384.540005811968 | 3.12751951481808 |
| 110 | 5310 | 5107.60118617419 | -11.4147659077605 | 202.398813825808 | 0.98638254666849 |
| 111 | 4870 | 5079.78739967418 | -11.4687910725048 | -209.787399674177 | -0.0498664477193593 |
| 112 | 4550 | 4568.06527358443 | -12.8916829308775 | -18.0652735844278 | -1.5290111841518 |
| 113 | 4510 | 4497.67184673424 | -13.0011369736417 | 12.3281532657555 | -0.176157242128926 |
| 114 | 4380 | 4558.16753673345 | -12.9029413508869 | -178.167536733447 | 0.225218555971855 |
| 115 | 5260 | 5141.20342363083 | -12.1945442474897 | 118.796576369174 | 1.82606537155082 |
| 116 | 5270 | 5154.03413678943 | -12.1637617520105 | 115.96586321057 | 0.076682432729047 |
| 117 | 4610 | 4771.58003147146 | -12.6145433784008 | -161.580031471464 | -1.13463436782601 |
| 118 | 4840 | 4913.16674181272 | -12.4758372559786 | -73.1667418127153 | 0.472361056053705 |
| 119 | 5050 | 4735.45604903326 | -12.497027224022 | 314.543950966741 | -0.505988037356946 |
| 120 | 4760 | 5191.85038867419 | -12.809157331332 | -431.85038867419 | 1.43739091345415 |
| 121 | 5210 | 4922.20883090546 | -12.7480774304103 | 287.791169094544 | -0.787052414374613 |
| 122 | 5540 | 5268.84712829085 | -12.1162775768427 | 271.152871709151 | 1.09445982756023 |
| 123 | 4830 | 5011.80693682915 | -12.8476858097374 | -181.80693682915 | -0.745282758805162 |
| 124 | 5210 | 5183.81989763096 | -12.3438279956591 | 26.1801023690405 | 0.564921389751551 |
| 125 | 5320 | 5303.3213227007 | -12.089693554347 | 16.6786772993013 | 0.403850313327787 |
| 126 | 5150 | 5398.73567754829 | -11.9417866093323 | -248.735677548286 | 0.329425853860529 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 5588.05796635768 | 5579.59894799308 | 8.45901836460533 |
| 2 | 5722.22116756702 | 5604.0038440527 | 118.217323514319 |
| 3 | 5458.64970929632 | 5628.40874011233 | -169.759030816014 |
| 4 | 5692.49371856069 | 5652.81363617196 | 39.6800823887362 |
| 5 | 6079.85137831406 | 5677.21853223158 | 402.632846082475 |
| 6 | 5446.39943588071 | 5701.62342829121 | -255.223992410501 |
| 7 | 6069.01180209825 | 5726.02832435084 | 342.983477747409 |
| 8 | 6107.61759453362 | 5750.43322041046 | 357.184374123162 |
| 9 | 5552.27039289656 | 5774.83811647009 | -222.567723573531 |
| 10 | 5720.59639187663 | 5799.24301252972 | -78.646620653082 |
| 11 | 5685.88220575522 | 5823.64790858934 | -137.765702834127 |
| 12 | 5442.85875271552 | 5848.05280464897 | -405.194051933451 |
