| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.435538810584028 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.0484435412673426 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 3090 | 2967.00988247863 | 122.990117521366 |
| 14 | 2995 | 2940.08515617328 | 54.9148438267166 |
| 15 | 3440 | 3410.38600613278 | 29.6139938672163 |
| 16 | 3335 | 3317.79235399416 | 17.2076460058415 |
| 17 | 3205 | 3172.71192253096 | 32.2880774690357 |
| 18 | 3285 | 3227.11627091701 | 57.8837290829897 |
| 19 | 2790 | 3084.96018562979 | -294.960185629788 |
| 20 | 3225 | 3174.33521474008 | 50.6647852599167 |
| 21 | 3360 | 3224.86833257982 | 135.13166742018 |
| 22 | 3275 | 3238.23172247605 | 36.7682775239537 |
| 23 | 3505 | 2891.04570519852 | 613.954294801477 |
| 24 | 3185 | 3023.99659937178 | 161.003400628216 |
| 25 | 3470 | 3670.11623631332 | -200.116236313323 |
| 26 | 3510 | 3500.60466871842 | 9.39533128157518 |
| 27 | 3840 | 3950.38816526117 | -110.388165261174 |
| 28 | 3605 | 3796.47889389084 | -191.478893890836 |
| 29 | 3655 | 3560.91974189805 | 94.0802581019452 |
| 30 | 3555 | 3642.93688340835 | -87.9368834083498 |
| 31 | 3140 | 3427.62192195206 | -287.621921952064 |
| 32 | 3380 | 3529.64399134066 | -149.643991340662 |
| 33 | 3255 | 3495.24456743853 | -240.244567438525 |
| 34 | 3460 | 3342.42734087377 | 117.572659126227 |
| 35 | 3245 | 3046.21763027726 | 198.782369722737 |
| 36 | 3120 | 2985.95932277583 | 134.040677224174 |
| 37 | 3265 | 3610.46101171234 | -345.461011712337 |
| 38 | 3220 | 3383.37514235006 | -163.375142350064 |
| 39 | 3140 | 3754.63497261101 | -614.634972611009 |
| 40 | 3050 | 3378.88926118503 | -328.889261185029 |
| 41 | 3300 | 3091.29103318322 | 208.708966816778 |
| 42 | 2950 | 3218.25625861591 | -268.256258615911 |
| 43 | 2630 | 2918.94492363501 | -288.944923635013 |
| 44 | 2795 | 3024.16371181926 | -229.163711819259 |
| 45 | 2840 | 2952.65293608634 | -112.652936086344 |
| 46 | 2945 | 2865.19114964773 | 79.8088503522713 |
| 47 | 2790 | 2554.75447353865 | 235.245526461346 |
| 48 | 2605 | 2508.60695681247 | 96.3930431875287 |
| 49 | 4590 | 3103.59990658252 | 1486.40009341748 |
| 50 | 4230 | 3679.33969096235 | 550.660309037647 |
| 51 | 4245 | 4349.25019849284 | -104.250198492839 |
| 52 | 4300 | 4203.6104378249 | 96.3895621750953 |
| 53 | 4475 | 4115.9379968827 | 359.062003117304 |
| 54 | 3910 | 4295.34542982012 | -385.345429820124 |
| 55 | 4100 | 3944.47149530233 | 155.528504697666 |
| 56 | 3500 | 4244.91039908093 | -744.910399080929 |
| 57 | 4390 | 3951.95785339699 | 438.042146603007 |
| 58 | 3550 | 4109.60791937941 | -559.607919379415 |
| 59 | 3865 | 3524.93076193642 | 340.069238063576 |
| 60 | 3715 | 3520.6411883031 | 194.358811696896 |
| 61 | 3310 | 4196.31107865605 | -886.311078656046 |
| 62 | 3945 | 3713.05572576509 | 231.94427423491 |
| 63 | 5050 | 4226.24483091552 | 823.755169084482 |
| 64 | 4350 | 4490.27381797736 | -140.273817977358 |
| 65 | 4060 | 4306.70793621328 | -246.707936213275 |
| 66 | 4345 | 4201.92360203866 | 143.076397961338 |
| 67 | 4360 | 4095.9878085995 | 264.012191400497 |
| 68 | 4915 | 4419.05351761756 | 495.946482382439 |
| 69 | 4650 | 4698.88954680294 | -48.8895468029377 |
| 70 | 4805 | 4617.1817210486 | 187.818278951404 |
| 71 | 4775 | 4382.63890208896 | 392.361097911044 |
| 72 | 4220 | 4397.14008429993 | -177.140084299933 |
| 73 | 3975 | 4881.45741070395 | -906.457410703954 |
| 74 | 3820 | 4420.00568060831 | -600.005680608307 |
| 75 | 5515 | 4587.03106433789 | 927.968935662112 |
| 76 | 4895 | 4870.0883017427 | 24.9116982572996 |
| 77 | 5535 | 4755.55673561367 | 779.443264386333 |
| 78 | 4230 | 5108.35953213373 | -878.359532133729 |
| 79 | 3695 | 4560.85567728666 | -865.855677286659 |
| 80 | 5590 | 4398.16220562963 | 1191.83779437037 |
| 81 | 5000 | 4966.18764092056 | 33.8123590794366 |
| 82 | 4875 | 4926.97236177374 | -51.9723617737363 |
| 83 | 4360 | 4593.5845332563 | -233.584533256296 |
| 84 | 4405 | 4319.8893753146 | 85.1106246853969 |
| 85 | 4500 | 4898.48424673833 | -398.484246738325 |
| 86 | 4070 | 4666.65431328851 | -596.654313288513 |
| 87 | 4800 | 4876.9210478038 | -76.9210478038012 |
| 88 | 4080 | 4697.61604938619 | -617.616049386185 |
| 89 | 4850 | 4323.87099987887 | 526.129000121126 |
| 90 | 4105 | 4521.01381625244 | -416.013816252436 |
| 91 | 3805 | 4175.22137622433 | -370.221376224328 |
| 92 | 5060 | 4284.66247545681 | 775.337524543188 |
| 93 | 4060 | 4639.62025335084 | -579.620253350837 |
| 94 | 4600 | 4330.88552360567 | 269.114476394328 |
| 95 | 4635 | 4132.37738085057 | 502.622619149425 |
| 96 | 3900 | 4188.04356981432 | -288.043569814316 |
| 97 | 4120 | 4590.89164776024 | -470.891647760239 |
| 98 | 3960 | 4322.10661982045 | -362.106619820453 |
| 99 | 4400 | 4648.73982349249 | -248.739823492489 |
| 100 | 3700 | 4379.81604598682 | -679.816045986823 |
| 101 | 3970 | 4010.25561921651 | -40.2556192165066 |
| 102 | 4550 | 3934.95352892276 | 615.046471077239 |
| 103 | 5140 | 4039.48003140569 | 1100.51996859431 |
| 104 | 5000 | 4820.81080076583 | 179.189199234167 |
| 105 | 3650 | 4879.07220462439 | -1229.07220462439 |
| 106 | 4300 | 4310.68417039373 | -10.6841703937343 |
| 107 | 3650 | 3996.69802097169 | -346.69802097169 |
| 108 | 3355 | 3660.83173777982 | -305.831737779818 |
| 109 | 4000 | 4050.93248913706 | -50.9324891370602 |
| 110 | 3450 | 3968.03064571725 | -518.030645717251 |
| 111 | 3295 | 4229.85284284885 | -934.85284284885 |
| 112 | 3390 | 3650.31265366465 | -260.312653664648 |
| 113 | 3415 | 3480.95069482349 | -65.950694823493 |
| 114 | 3440 | 3412.37630916448 | 27.6236908355218 |
| 115 | 3680 | 3274.3324221611 | 405.667577838895 |
| 116 | 3900 | 3727.83467948941 | 172.16532051059 |
| 117 | 3965 | 3744.52870912149 | 220.471290878506 |
| 118 | 4295 | 3840.78933510215 | 454.210664897849 |
| 119 | 4210 | 3720.09479891432 | 489.905201085679 |
| 120 | 4100 | 3749.71915602482 | 350.28084397518 |
| 121 | 4690 | 4432.55249307891 | 257.447506921093 |
| 122 | 3860 | 4471.1895413105 | -611.189541310497 |
| 123 | 4250 | 4681.03962973943 | -431.039629739425 |
| 124 | 4495 | 4339.37461162628 | 155.625388373721 |
| 125 | 3800 | 4356.48454326542 | -556.484543265425 |
| 126 | 3845 | 4076.82237339271 | -231.822373392705 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 3836.11707682578 | 2938.23010308453 | 4734.00405056703 |
| 128 | 4106.55035758553 | 3127.1972250466 | 5085.90349012446 |
| 129 | 4049.58061085333 | 2995.03611259192 | 5104.12510911473 |
| 130 | 4056.20891909804 | 2931.48866969689 | 5180.92916849918 |
| 131 | 3738.66405937237 | 2547.89658416465 | 4929.43153458009 |
| 132 | 3551.09772982041 | 2297.75870122035 | 4804.43675842048 |
| 133 | 4078.83168363406 | 2765.8997504358 | 5391.76361683233 |
| 134 | 3981.58790608332 | 2611.65294346235 | 5351.52286870429 |
| 135 | 4462.560869439 | 3037.90184272037 | 5887.21989615764 |
| 136 | 4324.67239993327 | 2847.31500139679 | 5802.02979846976 |
| 137 | 4254.52914576448 | 2726.28949714583 | 5782.76879438314 |
| 138 | 4226.1153163285 | 2648.63379053821 | 5803.59684211878 |
| 139 | 4092.71672717543 | 2461.40272712456 | 5724.0307272263 |
| 140 | 4363.15000793518 | 2685.61702543929 | 6040.68299043107 |
| 141 | 4306.18026120298 | 2583.66801220121 | 6028.69251020475 |
| 142 | 4312.80856944768 | 2546.46206081448 | 6079.15507808089 |
| 143 | 3995.26370972202 | 2186.14471718441 | 5804.38270225963 |
| 144 | 3807.69738017006 | 1956.79406833557 | 5658.60069200455 |
