Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 7300 | 7300 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 3550 | 5379.02746466011 | -588.619764558411 | -588.022704689024 | -2.69945683784158 |
3 | 6050 | 5565.12463696018 | -410.553757655903 | -410.893599149168 | 1.60982169440776 |
4 | 7350 | 6113.95147176428 | -234.44782574796 | -237.401712415148 | 2.45219985432575 |
5 | 4850 | 5614.68693731968 | -275.009709906105 | -276.679546348197 | -0.777996721438996 |
6 | 6100 | 5661.40041055824 | -232.485761259402 | -236.583343412343 | 1.04706736085302 |
7 | 6400 | 5393.28808290752 | -233.621804510059 | 1181.57676218359 | -0.240835452295005 |
8 | 5050 | 5202.47860884193 | -228.870651183873 | -232.046019673092 | 0.125615332660177 |
9 | 4950 | 5036.97386816847 | -222.465903084633 | -226.591319341832 | 0.21346781085208 |
10 | 6950 | 5482.79583809961 | -159.736313791123 | -176.734149974618 | 2.46583718959557 |
11 | 6600 | 5714.38451597256 | -125.043566028819 | -151.369144238155 | 1.53636284076993 |
12 | 6100 | 5761.49348022787 | -110.424024037711 | -141.661025148181 | 0.705518935289563 |
13 | 5550 | 5484.30237265188 | -119.519572562079 | 691.424927302609 | -0.890515253200883 |
14 | 4950 | 5288.9782457686 | -125.861416942819 | -142.308778657204 | -0.29180205929565 |
15 | 5000 | 5157.64848384011 | -126.304880021849 | -142.557284019313 | -0.0221743862154565 |
16 | 5950 | 5302.56028588022 | -104.778934437009 | -132.02977629237 | 1.1380858159834 |
17 | 6000 | 5432.27373014929 | -86.4345485248851 | -124.272787332036 | 1.00613896617333 |
18 | 5950 | 5526.60939623294 | -72.4246181651752 | -119.187689838694 | 0.786683832254959 |
19 | 6950 | 5654.4139289794 | -59.0297827986895 | 628.16262598826 | 0.969764497029857 |
20 | 5300 | 5551.69628346374 | -62.4506002672598 | -127.001905494659 | -0.18205576338801 |
21 | 4200 | 5195.69494351683 | -85.2103642228535 | -134.646569992483 | -1.25180424675988 |
22 | 5250 | 5178.93192647621 | -79.9354677588994 | -133.172970646283 | 0.296107333778555 |
23 | 5350 | 5194.25748130316 | -72.6201953657907 | -131.485905514759 | 0.415674269948638 |
24 | 6350 | 5457.58086385371 | -46.8732342698738 | -126.616730803116 | 1.47303832993075 |
25 | 7150 | 5668.02865488117 | -28.1352324040087 | 680.612549741305 | 1.17816487928784 |
26 | 4850 | 5474.82619240748 | -40.8668765339198 | -139.534936337936 | -0.704835971946099 |
27 | 5850 | 5572.83701652247 | -30.1936700592411 | -137.222677788117 | 0.600410087267151 |
28 | 5300 | 5516.44260110021 | -32.2033134432927 | -137.570902654981 | -0.114103117481083 |
29 | 6650 | 5807.17907645923 | -7.45855540107926 | -134.178571607575 | 1.41204541524603 |
30 | 5850 | 5845.3640310103 | -3.96291427948097 | -133.803968026413 | 0.199964791245949 |
31 | 5800 | 5672.48661734873 | -16.656281885181 | 637.141008670918 | -0.752936574066841 |
32 | 5750 | 5711.39034891551 | -12.3910322805322 | -126.565935804156 | 0.23940308730089 |
33 | 5300 | 5631.13095106128 | -17.5934330761226 | -127.394325157434 | -0.294807647320881 |
34 | 5600 | 5641.80342619529 | -15.4282066947838 | -127.126588599354 | 0.123335188714568 |
35 | 6250 | 5812.45355712392 | -1.17808883704379 | -125.780769485529 | 0.813771474508094 |
36 | 6100 | 5913.959598122 | 6.68489756766553 | -125.225217443287 | 0.44947407955339 |
37 | 5950 | 5777.3063926174 | -4.20637666179974 | 599.773925140605 | -0.631731470504601 |
38 | 5250 | 5672.32479173307 | -11.928511809753 | -121.260577837096 | -0.435947670868866 |
39 | 7000 | 6023.81453186338 | 15.9001402724413 | -117.607871459402 | 1.58178191334117 |
40 | 4800 | 5761.25669793897 | -5.41834701105714 | -119.742984994981 | -1.21596682494219 |
41 | 5100 | 5622.9400498134 | -15.5929284105713 | -120.504162009359 | -0.581223825037762 |
42 | 6150 | 5771.71152626326 | -3.0086108374934 | -119.820453470928 | 0.719191234205733 |
43 | 5550 | 5571.30891669249 | -18.0637732531858 | 564.427722829577 | -0.866064336424683 |
44 | 5350 | 5530.68886813185 | -19.7909725633633 | -113.146238979325 | -0.0977575162272688 |
45 | 5100 | 5436.87141596642 | -25.4572456251506 | -113.805614332286 | -0.322491015747593 |
46 | 4750 | 5275.54168668459 | -35.8571523606226 | -114.721394534846 | -0.593519628754416 |
47 | 4850 | 5171.51358081897 | -41.0755772027462 | -115.060932291024 | -0.298140859306334 |
48 | 6100 | 5399.32714265828 | -20.490148449785 | -114.102807512636 | 1.17633886405407 |
49 | 6300 | 5463.70285597895 | -14.0093619744244 | 584.663312865776 | 0.37170194019539 |
50 | 5450 | 5478.93997055251 | -11.7704214746839 | -116.620537214564 | 0.126870914122714 |
51 | 5950 | 5616.16570616883 | -0.367159157282465 | -115.398205789674 | 0.649361377793045 |
Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
1 | 5478.12604641891 | 5979.52013739726 | -501.394090978353 |
2 | 5677.09752769472 | 6087.5112518264 | -410.413724131678 |
3 | 6803.4518083312 | 6195.50236625554 | 607.949442075662 |
4 | 6823.97147646539 | 6303.49348068468 | 520.477995780714 |
5 | 6117.47895864476 | 6411.48459511381 | -294.005636469057 |
6 | 6596.86172326567 | 6519.47570954295 | 77.3860137227123 |
7 | 6126.07273299374 | 6627.46682397209 | -501.394090978353 |
8 | 6325.04421426955 | 6735.45793840123 | -410.413724131678 |
9 | 7451.39849490603 | 6843.44905283037 | 607.949442075662 |
10 | 7471.91816304022 | 6951.44016725951 | 520.477995780714 |
11 | 6765.42564521959 | 7059.43128168865 | -294.005636469057 |
12 | 7244.8084098405 | 7167.42239611779 | 77.3860137227122 |