| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.854196870146392 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 5174 | 5177 | -3 |
| 4 | 5201 | 5193.43740938956 | 7.56259061043875 |
| 5 | 5221 | 5226.8973506192 | -5.897350619196 |
| 6 | 5205 | 5241.85985217812 | -36.8598521781232 |
| 7 | 5235 | 5194.37428181351 | 40.6257181864885 |
| 8 | 5255 | 5259.07664313586 | -4.07664313585974 |
| 9 | 5272 | 5275.5943873285 | -3.59438732850413 |
| 10 | 5299 | 5289.5240729224 | 9.47592707759759 |
| 11 | 5318 | 5324.61838017382 | -6.61838017382161 |
| 12 | 5340 | 5337.9649805439 | 2.03501945609605 |
| 13 | 5385 | 5361.70328779399 | 23.2967122060118 |
| 14 | 5430 | 5426.60326644506 | 3.39673355493505 |
| 15 | 5454 | 5474.50474561641 | -20.504745616412 |
| 16 | 5493 | 5480.98965608773 | 12.0103439122749 |
| 17 | 5536 | 5530.24885426697 | 5.75114573302835 |
| 18 | 5565 | 5578.16146495188 | -13.1614649518806 |
| 19 | 5586 | 5595.91898278344 | -9.91898278344252 |
| 20 | 5594 | 5608.44621873479 | -14.4462187347899 |
| 21 | 5576 | 5604.10630390608 | -28.1063039060818 |
| 22 | 5544 | 5562.09798707812 | -18.0979870781239 |
| 23 | 5530 | 5514.63874316004 | 15.3612568399594 |
| 24 | 5536 | 5513.76028067425 | 22.2397193257511 |
| 25 | 5544 | 5538.75737931524 | 5.24262068476037 |
| 26 | 5564 | 5551.23560949553 | 12.7643905044733 |
| 27 | 5596 | 5582.13891191377 | 13.8610880862261 |
| 28 | 5596 | 5625.97900997385 | -29.979009973852 |
| 29 | 5599 | 5600.3710334841 | -1.37103348409983 |
| 30 | 5591 | 5602.19990097312 | -11.1999009731162 |
| 31 | 5566 | 5584.63298061593 | -18.632980615931 |
| 32 | 5532 | 5543.7167468923 | -11.7167468923044 |
| 33 | 5498 | 5499.7083383686 | -1.70833836860038 |
| 34 | 5484 | 5464.24908108099 | 19.7509189190087 |
| 35 | 5442 | 5467.12025420412 | -25.1202542041237 |
| 36 | 5447 | 5403.66261168568 | 43.3373883143204 |
| 37 | 5490 | 5445.68127314409 | 44.3187268559095 |
| 38 | 5544 | 5526.53819091328 | 17.4618090867189 |
| 39 | 5583 | 5595.45401358225 | -12.4540135822499 |
| 40 | 5628 | 5623.81583415953 | 4.18416584046827 |
| 41 | 5679 | 5672.38993552463 | 6.61006447536693 |
| 42 | 5691 | 5729.03623191096 | -38.0362319109572 |
| 43 | 5707 | 5708.54580166046 | -1.54580166045525 |
| 44 | 5724 | 5723.22538272023 | 0.774617279772428 |
| 45 | 5726 | 5740.88705837617 | -14.8870583761709 |
| 46 | 5745 | 5730.17057970556 | 14.8294202944408 |
| 47 | 5767 | 5761.83782410716 | 5.16217589284406 |
| 48 | 5789 | 5788.24733859797 | 0.752661402031663 |
| 49 | 5785 | 5810.89025961186 | -25.8902596118642 |
| 50 | 5785 | 5784.77488088413 | 0.225119115867528 |
| 51 | 5806 | 5784.96717692832 | 21.0328230716832 |
| 52 | 5827 | 5823.93334856649 | 3.06665143350892 |
| 53 | 5856 | 5847.55287262282 | 8.447127377176 |
| 54 | 5896 | 5883.76838239014 | 12.2316176098639 |
| 55 | 5914 | 5934.21659186931 | -20.216591869309 |
| 56 | 5938 | 5934.94764236952 | 3.05235763048131 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 57 | 5961.55495670404 | 5925.71917551823 | 5997.39073788986 |
| 58 | 5985.10991340809 | 5909.61585419657 | 6060.60397261961 |
| 59 | 6008.66487011213 | 5885.70352282203 | 6131.62621740223 |
| 60 | 6032.21982681617 | 5854.96671201989 | 6209.47294161246 |
| 61 | 6055.77478352022 | 5818.13867947185 | 6293.41088756859 |
| 62 | 6079.32974022426 | 5775.76707734788 | 6382.89240310064 |
| 63 | 6102.8846969283 | 5728.27713243018 | 6477.49226142642 |
| 64 | 6126.43965363235 | 5676.01033304429 | 6576.8689742204 |
| 65 | 6149.99461033639 | 5619.24837122629 | 6680.74084944649 |
| 66 | 6173.54956704043 | 5558.22862357289 | 6788.87051050797 |
| 67 | 6197.10452374448 | 5493.15459945687 | 6901.05444803208 |
| 68 | 6220.65948044852 | 5424.20325988643 | 7017.1157010106 |
