| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.136565811798447 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 3530 | 5610 | -2080 |
| 3 | 2370 | 5325.94311145923 | -2955.94311145923 |
| 4 | 11610 | 4922.26234081277 | 6687.73765918723 |
| 5 | 4630 | 5835.57866333472 | -1205.57866333472 |
| 6 | 8760 | 5670.93783448953 | 3089.06216551047 |
| 7 | 4130 | 6092.79811681834 | -1962.79811681834 |
| 8 | 5400 | 5824.74699859858 | -424.746998598576 |
| 9 | 5630 | 5766.74107992601 | -136.741079926009 |
| 10 | 7050 | 5748.06692333972 | 1301.93307666028 |
| 11 | 5620 | 5925.86647086108 | -305.866470861078 |
| 12 | 5510 | 5884.09556796601 | -374.095567966008 |
| 13 | 4240 | 5833.00690303653 | -1593.00690303653 |
| 14 | 3620 | 5615.45662212282 | -1995.45662212282 |
| 15 | 4220 | 5342.94546861403 | -1122.94546861403 |
| 16 | 3480 | 5189.58950908737 | -1709.58950908737 |
| 17 | 3400 | 4956.11802993674 | -1556.11802993674 |
| 18 | 4830 | 4743.60550792423 | 86.3944920757694 |
| 19 | 3060 | 4755.40404186947 | -1695.40404186947 |
| 20 | 8030 | 4523.8698125652 | 3506.1301874348 |
| 21 | 8480 | 5002.68732788327 | 3477.31267211673 |
| 22 | 7270 | 5477.56935582792 | 1792.43064417208 |
| 23 | 10030 | 5722.35410184169 | 4307.64589815831 |
| 24 | 7810 | 6310.63126086393 | 1499.36873913607 |
| 25 | 6470 | 6515.39376990926 | -45.3937699092621 |
| 26 | 5150 | 6509.19453287101 | -1359.19453287101 |
| 27 | 4580 | 6323.57502809747 | -1743.57502809747 |
| 28 | 2640 | 6085.46228895384 | -3445.46228895384 |
| 29 | 2180 | 5614.92993444193 | -3434.92993444193 |
| 30 | 6250 | 5145.83593947408 | 1104.16406052592 |
| 31 | 4310 | 5296.62700075847 | -986.62700075847 |
| 32 | 6160 | 5161.88748345762 | 998.112516542377 |
| 33 | 8560 | 5298.19552954542 | 3261.80447045458 |
| 34 | 6250 | 5743.64650498085 | 506.353495019146 |
| 35 | 8940 | 5812.79708108512 | 3127.20291891488 |
| 36 | 8040 | 6239.86608636521 | 1800.13391363479 |
| 37 | 6290 | 6485.70283562666 | -195.702835626657 |
| 38 | 2630 | 6458.97651900805 | -3828.97651900805 |
| 39 | 4760 | 5936.06923233252 | -1176.06923233252 |
| 40 | 3820 | 5775.45838288785 | -1955.45838288785 |
| 41 | 2350 | 5508.4096213907 | -3158.4096213907 |
| 42 | 2420 | 5077.07884745345 | -2657.07884745345 |
| 43 | 4780 | 4714.21271763849 | 65.7872823615116 |
| 44 | 6120 | 4723.1970112602 | 1396.8029887398 |
| 45 | 4290 | 4913.95254533995 | -623.952545339949 |
| 46 | 5540 | 4828.74195946189 | 711.258040538108 |
| 47 | 6120 | 4925.87549116615 | 1194.12450883385 |
| 48 | 5110 | 5088.95207410347 | 21.0479258965315 |
| 49 | 4800 | 5091.8265011902 | -291.826501190202 |
| 50 | 2670 | 5051.97297815086 | -2381.97297815086 |
| 51 | 5120 | 4726.67690470773 | 393.323095292274 |
| 52 | 2370 | 4780.39139251539 | -2410.39139251539 |
| 53 | 3280 | 4451.21433524454 | -1171.21433524454 |
| 54 | 4090 | 4291.26649876189 | -201.266498761892 |
| 55 | 2250 | 4263.78037597064 | -2013.78037597064 |
| 56 | 2520 | 3988.76682414243 | -1468.76682414243 |
| 57 | 3670 | 3788.18349046079 | -118.183490460794 |
| 58 | 6440 | 3772.04366614484 | 2667.95633385516 |
| 59 | 5490 | 4136.39528872058 | 1353.60471127942 |
| 60 | 2000 | 4321.25141497066 | -2321.25141497066 |
| 61 | 2130 | 4004.24783109689 | -1874.24783109689 |
| 62 | 1210 | 3748.28965453167 | -2538.28965453167 |
| 63 | 6770 | 3401.64606728095 | 3368.35393271905 |
| 64 | 2380 | 3861.64805652722 | -1481.64805652722 |
| 65 | 2380 | 3659.30558688799 | -1279.30558688799 |
| 66 | 3760 | 3484.59618087634 | 275.403819123657 |
| 67 | 3860 | 3522.20692700736 | 337.793072992642 |
| 68 | 4590 | 3568.33791224049 | 1021.66208775951 |
| 69 | 4580 | 3707.86202463906 | 872.137975360937 |
| 70 | 8030 | 3826.96625524448 | 4203.03374475552 |
| 71 | 5880 | 4400.95697061329 | 1479.04302938671 |
| 72 | 1770 | 4602.94368260632 | -2832.94368260632 |
| 73 | 5440 | 4216.0604288119 | 1223.9395711881 |
| 74 | 4090 | 4383.20872994345 | -293.208729943449 |
| 75 | 3360 | 4343.16644171233 | -983.16644171233 |
| 76 | 1240 | 4208.8995184669 | -2968.8995184669 |
| 77 | 1890 | 3803.44934557945 | -1913.44934557945 |
| 78 | 3390 | 3542.13758236518 | -152.137582365183 |
| 79 | 2980 | 3521.36078992443 | -541.360789924429 |
| 80 | 5030 | 3447.42941417255 | 1582.57058582745 |
| 81 | 3720 | 3663.55445095442 | 56.4455490455803 |
| 82 | 3530 | 3671.26298318224 | -141.262983182238 |
| 83 | 1620 | 3651.97128920689 | -2031.97128920689 |
| 84 | 2290 | 3374.47348054521 | -1084.47348054521 |
| 85 | 2050 | 3226.37147930067 | -1176.37147930067 |
| 86 | 2070 | 3065.71935325343 | -995.719353253432 |
| 87 | 2760 | 2929.73813145295 | -169.738131452953 |
| 88 | 1500 | 2906.55770573793 | -1406.55770573793 |
| 89 | 1850 | 2714.47001081247 | -864.470010812468 |
| 90 | 2760 | 2596.41296201045 | 163.587037989549 |
| 91 | 3360 | 2618.7533586532 | 741.246641346803 |
| 92 | 2120 | 2719.9823079716 | -599.982307971595 |
| 93 | 3970 | 2638.04523701875 | 1331.95476298125 |
| 94 | 3760 | 2819.94472050409 | 940.055279495909 |
| 95 | 3630 | 2948.32413288387 | 681.675867116135 |
| 96 | 1850 | 3041.41775105999 | -1191.41775105999 |
| 97 | 3160 | 2878.7108186954 | 281.289181304597 |
| 98 | 2700 | 2917.12530409039 | -217.125304090386 |
| 99 | 1080 | 2887.4734106753 | -1807.4734106753 |
| 100 | 1150 | 2640.63433704232 | -1490.63433704232 |
| 101 | 1230 | 2437.06464870949 | -1207.06464870949 |
| 102 | 2180 | 2272.22088506528 | -92.2208850652755 |
| 103 | 2310 | 2259.62666503157 | 50.3733349684348 |
| 104 | 2940 | 2266.50594041452 | 673.494059585475 |
| 105 | 4370 | 2358.48220340325 | 2011.51779659675 |
| 106 | 4750 | 2633.1867642425 | 2116.8132357575 |
| 107 | 7810 | 2922.27108220942 | 4887.72891779058 |
| 108 | 2880 | 3589.76774971824 | -709.767749718238 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 3492.83774078961 | -299.074645887099 | 7284.75012746632 |
| 110 | 3492.83774078961 | -334.271299568339 | 7319.94678114756 |
| 111 | 3492.83774078961 | -369.147197729289 | 7354.82267930851 |
| 112 | 3492.83774078961 | -403.710953106581 | 7389.3864346858 |
| 113 | 3492.83774078961 | -437.970799760463 | 7423.64628133968 |
| 114 | 3492.83774078961 | -471.934615981796 | 7457.61009756102 |
| 115 | 3492.83774078961 | -505.609945447634 | 7491.28542702685 |
| 116 | 3492.83774078961 | -539.004016786356 | 7524.67949836557 |
| 117 | 3492.83774078961 | -572.123761696058 | 7557.79924327528 |
| 118 | 3492.83774078961 | -604.975831744873 | 7590.65131332409 |
| 119 | 3492.83774078961 | -637.566613968543 | 7623.24209554776 |
| 120 | 3492.83774078961 | -669.902245368833 | 7655.57772694805 |
