Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[39])
35	4505.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	3695	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	3894.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	3718.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	4749.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	3855.9	3894.2195	3692.2263	4096.2127	0.355	0	0.9734	0
41	4011.7	4051.0463	3826.904	4275.1887	0.3654	0.956	0.915	0
42	3907.6	3917.3719	3651.4817	4183.262	0.4713	0.2434	0.9283	0
43	4812.5	4882.4487	4594.1363	5170.7611	0.3172	1	0.8164	0.8164
44	4071.3	4034.4382	3672.4193	4396.4571	0.4209	0	0.8331	1e-04
45	4163.4	4111.6446	3712.3421	4510.947	0.3997	0.5785	0.6881	9e-04
46	4077.6	4062.8558	3624.9885	4500.7231	0.4737	0.3263	0.7565	0.0011
47	5109.2	5062.6548	4594.7161	5530.5934	0.4227	1	0.8526	0.905
48	4207.6	4170.0155	3628.8917	4711.1393	0.4459	3e-04	0.6397	0.0179
49	4320.8	4252.3732	3666.7456	4838.0009	0.4094	0.5596	0.6171	0.048
50	4396.9	4185.2861	3556.5928	4813.9795	0.2547	0.3363	0.6315	0.0392
51	5358.8	5253.7113	4589.1176	5918.305	0.3783	0.9942	0.665	0.9314

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
40	0.0265	-0.0099	0.0099	0.0099	1468.3862	0	0	-0.0816	0.0816
41	0.0282	-0.0098	0.0099	0.0098	1548.1347	1508.2604	38.8363	-0.0837	0.0827
42	0.0346	-0.0025	0.0074	0.0074	95.4895	1037.3368	32.2077	-0.0208	0.062
43	0.0301	-0.0145	0.0092	0.0091	4892.8163	2001.2067	44.7348	-0.1489	0.0837
44	0.0458	0.0091	0.0092	0.0091	1358.7929	1872.7239	43.275	0.0785	0.0827
45	0.0495	0.0124	0.0097	0.0097	2678.6265	2007.041	44.8	0.1102	0.0873
46	0.055	0.0036	0.0088	0.0088	217.3915	1751.3768	41.8495	0.0314	0.0793
47	0.0472	0.0091	0.0089	0.0089	2166.459	1803.2621	42.4648	0.0991	0.0818
48	0.0662	0.0089	0.0089	0.0089	1412.5957	1759.8547	41.9506	0.08	0.0816
49	0.0703	0.0158	0.0096	0.0096	4682.2212	2052.0913	45.3	0.1456	0.088
50	0.0766	0.0481	0.0131	0.0132	44780.4234	5936.4852	77.0486	0.4504	0.1209
51	0.0645	0.0196	0.0136	0.0138	11043.636	6362.0811	79.7627	0.2237	0.1295