| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.168285722245244 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 2900 | 3560 | -660 |
| 3 | 3380 | 3448.93142331814 | -68.931423318139 |
| 4 | 3560 | 3437.33124895965 | 122.668751040347 |
| 5 | 3100 | 3457.9746483254 | -357.9746483254 |
| 6 | 2800 | 3397.73262608647 | -597.732626086473 |
| 7 | 2780 | 3297.14275939596 | -517.142759395965 |
| 8 | 4380 | 3210.11501662712 | 1169.88498337288 |
| 9 | 3480 | 3406.98995599789 | 73.0100440021129 |
| 10 | 3220 | 3419.27650398394 | -199.27650398394 |
| 11 | 3840 | 3385.74111358449 | 454.258886415505 |
| 12 | 4580 | 3462.18639837125 | 1117.81360162875 |
| 13 | 3660 | 3650.2984676569 | 9.70153234309964 |
| 14 | 5040 | 3651.93109703414 | 1388.06890296586 |
| 15 | 4320 | 3885.52327489592 | 434.476725104083 |
| 16 | 4240 | 3958.63950437881 | 281.360495621194 |
| 17 | 3160 | 4005.9884585957 | -845.988458595698 |
| 18 | 4420 | 3863.62067982978 | 556.37932017022 |
| 19 | 3280 | 3957.25137556694 | -677.251375566943 |
| 20 | 5040 | 3843.27963868808 | 1196.72036131192 |
| 21 | 5580 | 4044.67058901704 | 1535.32941098296 |
| 22 | 4920 | 4303.04460782867 | 616.955392171326 |
| 23 | 5200 | 4406.86939159332 | 793.130608406676 |
| 24 | 4140 | 4540.34194886385 | -400.341948863851 |
| 25 | 4360 | 4472.97011485423 | -112.970114854229 |
| 26 | 4360 | 4453.95885748386 | -93.9588574838572 |
| 27 | 4480 | 4438.14692329085 | 41.8530767091515 |
| 28 | 4140 | 4445.19019853303 | -305.190198533033 |
| 29 | 2620 | 4393.83104555073 | -1773.83104555073 |
| 30 | 4240 | 4095.32060690919 | 144.679393090808 |
| 31 | 3920 | 4119.66808306948 | -199.668083069482 |
| 32 | 4180 | 4086.06679550081 | 93.9332044991888 |
| 33 | 8140 | 4101.87441266277 | 4038.12558733723 |
| 34 | 8060 | 4781.43329364481 | 3278.56670635519 |
| 35 | 6780 | 5333.16925975301 | 1446.83074024699 |
| 36 | 5180 | 5576.65021584209 | -396.650215842094 |
| 37 | 4820 | 5509.89964779037 | -689.899647790375 |
| 38 | 3600 | 5393.79938728523 | -1793.79938728523 |
| 39 | 6480 | 5091.92856183286 | 1388.07143816714 |
| 40 | 5500 | 5325.52116633281 | 174.478833667186 |
| 41 | 4080 | 5354.883462873 | -1274.883462873 |
| 42 | 3800 | 5140.3387785449 | -1340.3387785449 |
| 43 | 4560 | 4914.77889914416 | -354.778899144165 |
| 44 | 7140 | 4855.07467586432 | 2284.92532413568 |
| 45 | 4740 | 5239.59498431294 | -499.594984312938 |
| 46 | 5820 | 5155.52028154773 | 664.479718452266 |
| 47 | 6800 | 5267.34273088479 | 1532.65726911521 |
| 48 | 4720 | 5525.26706637227 | -805.267066372267 |
| 49 | 6220 | 5389.7521165075 | 830.247883492499 |
| 50 | 3420 | 5529.47098122362 | -2109.47098122362 |
| 51 | 7600 | 5174.47713359302 | 2425.52286640698 |
| 52 | 2540 | 5582.65800098867 | -3042.65800098867 |
| 53 | 4220 | 5070.62210174702 | -850.622101747024 |
| 54 | 5420 | 4927.47454699676 | 492.525453003242 |
| 55 | 2040 | 5010.35954857957 | -2970.35954857957 |
| 56 | 4480 | 4510.4904466188 | -30.4904466188045 |
| 57 | 5340 | 4505.35933978798 | 834.640660212021 |
| 58 | 4720 | 4645.81744610701 | 74.1825538929934 |
| 59 | 4220 | 4658.30131076689 | -438.301310766886 |
| 60 | 3680 | 4584.54145812344 | -904.541458123444 |
| 61 | 4940 | 4432.32004554237 | 507.679954457626 |
| 62 | 2460 | 4517.75533334771 | -2057.75533334771 |
| 63 | 3900 | 4171.46449087129 | -271.464490871286 |
| 64 | 5160 | 4125.78089296107 | 1034.21910703893 |
| 65 | 2500 | 4299.82520234895 | -1799.82520234895 |
| 66 | 3560 | 3996.94031825647 | -436.940318256466 |
| 67 | 3340 | 3923.40950122061 | -583.40950122061 |
| 68 | 6380 | 3825.23001194296 | 2554.76998805704 |
| 69 | 2900 | 4255.16132455361 | -1355.16132455361 |
| 70 | 7940 | 4027.10702229229 | 3912.89297770771 |
| 71 | 4640 | 4685.59104311417 | -45.5910431141729 |
| 72 | 3000 | 4677.91872149579 | -1677.91872149579 |
| 73 | 5500 | 4395.54895758005 | 1104.45104241995 |
| 74 | 4000 | 4581.41229893821 | -581.412298938208 |
| 75 | 3340 | 4483.56891028912 | -1143.56891028912 |
| 76 | 2220 | 4291.12259028391 | -2071.12259028391 |
| 77 | 2060 | 3942.58222931954 | -1882.58222931954 |
| 78 | 3520 | 3625.77051917244 | -105.770519172442 |
| 79 | 2560 | 3607.97085096125 | -1047.97085096125 |
| 80 | 2100 | 3431.61231941528 | -1331.61231941528 |
| 81 | 3720 | 3207.52097849181 | 512.479021508188 |
| 82 | 4600 | 3293.76388076185 | 1306.23611923815 |
| 83 | 2800 | 3513.58476951067 | -713.584769510669 |
| 84 | 2720 | 3393.49864119036 | -673.49864119036 |
| 85 | 2920 | 3280.15843592645 | -360.15843592645 |
| 86 | 2940 | 3219.54891341385 | -279.54891341385 |
| 87 | 2900 | 3172.50482261713 | -272.504822617127 |
| 88 | 2140 | 3126.64615172769 | -986.646151727692 |
| 89 | 2020 | 2960.60769148371 | -940.607691483707 |
| 90 | 3040 | 2802.31684677294 | 237.68315322706 |
| 91 | 3900 | 2842.31552787928 | 1057.68447212072 |
| 92 | 2020 | 3020.3087231777 | -1000.3087231777 |
| 93 | 3280 | 2851.97104722952 | 428.028952770479 |
| 94 | 3040 | 2924.00220868838 | 115.997791311624 |
| 95 | 3060 | 2943.52298077811 | 116.477019221894 |
| 96 | 2360 | 2963.12440008284 | -603.124400082836 |
| 97 | 3120 | 2861.62717481117 | 258.372825188834 |
| 98 | 3900 | 2905.10763230661 | 994.892367693386 |
| 99 | 1960 | 3072.53381296018 | -1112.53381296018 |
| 100 | 2760 | 2885.31025672392 | -125.310256723918 |
| 101 | 1760 | 2864.2223296664 | -1104.2223296664 |
| 102 | 2520 | 2678.39747739916 | -158.397477399161 |
| 103 | 2160 | 2651.74144351322 | -491.741443513219 |
| 104 | 2980 | 2568.98837953368 | 411.011620466322 |
| 105 | 2800 | 2638.15576693504 | 161.844233064959 |
| 106 | 3700 | 2665.39184058761 | 1034.60815941239 |
| 107 | 3660 | 2839.50162193514 | 820.498378064858 |
| 108 | 2920 | 2977.57978408884 | -57.5797840888381 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 2967.88992853672 | 573.714370747636 | 5362.06548632581 |
| 110 | 2967.88992853672 | 540.049428390523 | 5395.73042868292 |
| 111 | 2967.88992853672 | 506.84494991776 | 5428.93490715569 |
| 112 | 2967.88992853672 | 474.082542345664 | 5461.69731472778 |
| 113 | 2967.88992853672 | 441.74500552527 | 5494.03485154817 |
| 114 | 2967.88992853672 | 409.816226570338 | 5525.96363050311 |
| 115 | 2967.88992853672 | 378.281086003266 | 5557.49877107018 |
| 116 | 2967.88992853672 | 347.125374067372 | 5588.65448300607 |
| 117 | 2967.88992853672 | 316.335715891165 | 5619.44414118228 |
| 118 | 2967.88992853672 | 285.89950438643 | 5649.88035268701 |
| 119 | 2967.88992853672 | 255.804839925134 | 5679.97501714831 |
| 120 | 2967.88992853672 | 226.0404759765 | 5709.73938109695 |
