| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 7020 | 7020 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6240 | 6464.35780284675 | -38.1601124391779 | -38.1601130598701 | -1.28802617036149 |
| 3 | 6040 | 6208.33164722956 | -45.8989178154825 | -45.8989178154826 | -0.697673257344664 |
| 4 | 6580 | 6446.5456227981 | -39.8144984910929 | -39.814498491093 | 0.957766292580903 |
| 5 | 5900 | 6121.60225898855 | -44.3429438934786 | -44.3429438934786 | -0.972331698929766 |
| 6 | 6100 | 6118.19049645052 | -43.7832363132207 | -43.7832363132207 | 0.140041549192656 |
| 7 | 6460 | 6336.3395087364 | -40.4465907444735 | -40.4465907444733 | 0.897165932985659 |
| 8 | 8740 | 7811.49944049017 | -21.8187986803072 | -21.8187986803075 | 5.19336947850832 |
| 9 | 6940 | 7284.66393460493 | -27.8948021123799 | -27.89480211238 | -1.73077495580834 |
| 10 | 7260 | 7275.75734690252 | -27.6698657905391 | -27.6698657905391 | 0.065080576973106 |
| 11 | 7380 | 7345.44521623474 | -26.5316297279372 | -26.5316297279372 | 0.333699096494873 |
| 12 | 7640 | 7530.99790748206 | -24.0820580664299 | -24.0820580664299 | 0.726950041228354 |
| 13 | 6640 | 7055.09105398368 | 10.5138768579376 | -115.652644568871 | -1.96757994567702 |
| 14 | 5860 | 6255.96576795856 | -15.5070968520793 | -15.5070992729179 | -2.29896302290227 |
| 15 | 6160 | 6200.17687600807 | -16.1684257447064 | -16.1684257447065 | -0.133464924853765 |
| 16 | 5580 | 5823.62697319315 | -19.7615430013027 | -19.7615430013028 | -1.22606454865763 |
| 17 | 6140 | 6021.59385386525 | -18.1390085345841 | -18.1390085345842 | 0.745057877479128 |
| 18 | 5680 | 5816.75490678349 | -19.3454145166446 | -19.3454145166446 | -0.63990648670683 |
| 19 | 5740 | 5774.13608449014 | -19.4864454949716 | -19.4864454949717 | -0.07981074392943 |
| 20 | 6280 | 6087.76787162487 | -17.5262508020748 | -17.5262508020753 | 1.14257079860844 |
| 21 | 7060 | 6686.10308125677 | -13.9564244118301 | -13.9564244118302 | 2.11251652528706 |
| 22 | 6820 | 6771.07902404362 | -13.3883078069602 | -13.3883078069603 | 0.339366514741767 |
| 23 | 6560 | 6645.00497623733 | -14.0308142910888 | -14.0308142910888 | -0.386550183308524 |
| 24 | 6100 | 6314.9024028553 | -15.8217952876932 | -15.8217952876932 | -1.0842419238666 |
| 25 | 5860 | 6000.13833797739 | -4.83826258151059 | 53.2208905484413 | -1.16371213297474 |
| 26 | 5780 | 5859.24021866117 | -7.70561004211036 | -7.70561248050005 | -0.414700909872805 |
| 27 | 5220 | 5466.29297130761 | -11.8181400949612 | -11.8181400949612 | -1.29262079150202 |
| 28 | 5080 | 5232.19017058017 | -13.2618858989966 | -13.2618858989966 | -0.75863596191638 |
| 29 | 4840 | 4995.10568540044 | -14.3512237797033 | -14.3512237797034 | -0.766767777795762 |
| 30 | 5040 | 5025.78918895178 | -14.1607303218547 | -14.1607303218547 | 0.154440451022111 |
| 31 | 4420 | 4658.29690826655 | -15.5653108174417 | -15.5653108174419 | -1.21211832507075 |
| 32 | 5160 | 4968.74603313676 | -14.3042545955658 | -14.3042545955662 | 1.11854514018716 |
| 33 | 5240 | 5137.91188094643 | -13.6037798390564 | -13.6037798390565 | 0.629510209250534 |
| 34 | 5560 | 5399.20897236522 | -12.5619626018271 | -12.5619626018271 | 0.943239612555845 |
| 35 | 6120 | 5843.03567719695 | -10.8412710730054 | -10.8412710730055 | 1.56597387944833 |
| 36 | 5300 | 5513.20258364284 | -12.0387808289495 | -12.0387808289496 | -1.09453878375076 |
| 37 | 5540 | 5452.10322958586 | -10.8530146036748 | 119.383161897064 | -0.183470955655973 |
| 38 | 4520 | 4860.89017749302 | -19.951267289859 | -19.9512698222804 | -1.82690886524917 |
| 39 | 5160 | 5049.86567562017 | -18.2988860442961 | -18.2988860442961 | 0.705239575545227 |
| 40 | 4740 | 4864.08823938523 | -19.1055063272901 | -19.1055063272901 | -0.572457818939597 |
| 41 | 4480 | 4633.21930452428 | -19.8707052796761 | -19.8707052796762 | -0.725847616054297 |
| 42 | 4520 | 4568.37178994787 | -20.0121130453065 | -20.0121130453065 | -0.154283410677461 |
| 43 | 4640 | 4616.69957278105 | -19.8099777714273 | -19.8099777714275 | 0.234485177445895 |
| 44 | 4720 | 4684.36635995284 | -19.5579620766671 | -19.5579620766675 | 0.300174521908151 |
| 45 | 4700 | 4698.31862055389 | -19.4625800553321 | -19.4625800553322 | 0.114993616923593 |
| 46 | 5060 | 4924.05282192282 | -18.7691354099238 | -18.7691354099238 | 0.841428684845084 |
| 47 | 5500 | 5280.77665564026 | -17.7116667696044 | -17.7116667696045 | 1.28856696974062 |
| 48 | 4980 | 5100.65110283798 | -18.1675283703603 | -18.1675283703604 | -0.55735209583307 |
| 49 | 5100 | 4983.25334202943 | -16.3806212092065 | 180.186836267616 | -0.363493965341579 |
| 50 | 4620 | 4757.91384167302 | -18.9885427110585 | -18.9885461481432 | -0.670051062988554 |
| 51 | 4960 | 4886.69381920642 | -18.060374838117 | -18.060374838117 | 0.500549121215962 |
| 52 | 4640 | 4739.58644097601 | -18.5542475056031 | -18.5542475056031 | -0.441489575260553 |
| 53 | 4660 | 4695.02116518328 | -18.6289876970905 | -18.6289876970905 | -0.0891846925830065 |
| 54 | 4920 | 4836.94215987807 | -18.2273299553276 | -18.2273299553276 | 0.550820378566802 |
| 55 | 4540 | 4659.24346175821 | -18.6028896952303 | -18.6028896952305 | -0.547230423161581 |
| 56 | 4660 | 4663.8809033366 | -18.5495484895577 | -18.5495484895581 | 0.0797556763650534 |
| 57 | 4840 | 4775.86189541337 | -18.2533797465237 | -18.2533797465237 | 0.447964434421138 |
| 58 | 5260 | 5076.34320036048 | -17.5344047489273 | -17.5344047489273 | 1.09386954546927 |
| 59 | 4640 | 4813.15152319625 | -18.086520938413 | -18.0865209384131 | -0.843078198214569 |
| 60 | 5020 | 4943.84124115668 | -17.7530754260436 | -17.7530754260436 | 0.510590545233267 |
| 61 | 6420 | 5649.2738720199 | -28.1303907967467 | 309.434302676693 | 2.61589617196294 |
| 62 | 4300 | 4808.01349185711 | -36.5599900761125 | -36.5599958497264 | -2.63882829497988 |
| 63 | 4680 | 4737.69107910849 | -36.7358642116038 | -36.7358642116039 | -0.114629608350854 |
| 64 | 4540 | 4624.83192302645 | -36.9775544361701 | -36.9775544361698 | -0.260582750775168 |
| 65 | 4240 | 4397.47263955611 | -37.4316057656473 | -37.4316057656475 | -0.652903913095338 |
| 66 | 4540 | 4493.15182519287 | -37.1550820871169 | -37.1550820871169 | 0.456729072086291 |
| 67 | 4740 | 4652.63788647187 | -36.7703835310058 | -36.770383531006 | 0.67482721545781 |
| 68 | 5160 | 4971.5425681142 | -36.0919708761266 | -36.0919708761269 | 1.22066912225121 |
| 69 | 5200 | 5119.52656543653 | -35.7447456517873 | -35.7447456517872 | 0.631759309984693 |
| 70 | 5420 | 5311.52625389541 | -35.3174929857103 | -35.3174929857103 | 0.781639111538318 |
| 71 | 5140 | 5214.43529723278 | -35.4330030359797 | -35.4330030359799 | -0.212012813156168 |
| 72 | 4600 | 4846.18665435095 | -36.0538371771098 | -36.0538371771097 | -1.1422591349224 |
| 73 | 4800 | 4580.09574235348 | -33.310282272548 | 366.413110788255 | -0.82503548307022 |
| 74 | 4840 | 4751.3436187359 | -31.4967895193491 | -31.4967948361319 | 0.669446652184978 |
| 75 | 4720 | 4739.30233223159 | -31.4102182488152 | -31.4102182488153 | 0.0661623600688895 |
| 76 | 4600 | 4661.02426210474 | -31.5373594502933 | -31.537359450293 | -0.160503364948946 |
| 77 | 4340 | 4471.50688847362 | -31.8593917651721 | -31.8593917651723 | -0.541864650310062 |
| 78 | 4460 | 4471.6203756846 | -31.8026041812776 | -31.8026041812776 | 0.109713363460499 |
| 79 | 4360 | 4410.41584365841 | -31.8517968104538 | -31.8517968104541 | -0.100905721694309 |
| 80 | 4720 | 4607.1431355376 | -31.478825005581 | -31.4788250055813 | 0.784510889640913 |
| 81 | 4920 | 4805.78990203806 | -31.1073779707467 | -31.1073779707466 | 0.789834207927283 |
| 82 | 5000 | 4931.7011670427 | -30.8552484042621 | -30.8552484042621 | 0.538921608983422 |
| 83 | 4680 | 4784.50740027786 | -31.0414974144342 | -31.0414974144344 | -0.399299980749688 |
| 84 | 4480 | 4605.0201074088 | -31.2786396793782 | -31.2786396793782 | -0.509500114383377 |
| 85 | 4840 | 4529.24104921611 | -30.8245705180458 | 339.070281055657 | -0.158627451284821 |
| 86 | 4480 | 4506.16774294688 | -30.7645457806675 | -30.7645511197316 | 0.0255253099975585 |
| 87 | 4500 | 4509.42009180072 | -30.6324406452588 | -30.632440645259 | 0.115821171283308 |
| 88 | 4380 | 4437.02321794415 | -30.7313394831157 | -30.7313394831154 | -0.143070660292709 |
| 89 | 4460 | 4458.00914521115 | -30.6392910219441 | -30.6392910219444 | 0.177407703964461 |
| 90 | 4540 | 4515.10942527792 | -30.5031930769149 | -30.5031930769148 | 0.301090790360015 |
| 91 | 4920 | 4769.91738394353 | -30.086207435666 | -30.0862074356663 | 0.979208110067485 |
| 92 | 4600 | 4672.6249635946 | -30.1820188858664 | -30.1820188858668 | -0.230666914230758 |
| 93 | 4880 | 4806.40195950585 | -29.9507460673908 | -29.9507460673907 | 0.562754047617665 |
| 94 | 5120 | 5005.1760510576 | -29.6297266754169 | -29.6297266754168 | 0.785054073724742 |
| 95 | 4560 | 4739.21743754354 | -29.9604922076101 | -29.9604922076102 | -0.811155738592584 |
| 96 | 4520 | 4611.70640421139 | -30.0967593069288 | -30.0967593069287 | -0.33482482271077 |
| 97 | 4600 | 4401.26542757363 | -28.4888526234334 | 313.377384459513 | -0.639896218364369 |
| 98 | 4580 | 4519.70158371472 | -27.4788581523457 | -27.4788634090465 | 0.486152370635611 |
| 99 | 4360 | 4427.88343049954 | -27.700516490127 | -27.7005164901272 | -0.21926800149724 |
| 100 | 4540 | 4502.83342195314 | -27.4848463121756 | -27.4848463121754 | 0.351730083221177 |
| 101 | 4420 | 4458.28197740616 | -27.5118024580963 | -27.5118024580966 | -0.0585492372976561 |
| 102 | 4680 | 4600.25836474171 | -27.2784547985465 | -27.2784547985465 | 0.581647871431622 |
| 103 | 4760 | 4704.22181527902 | -27.108177996799 | -27.1081779967993 | 0.4504446091999 |
| 104 | 4940 | 4854.71221563247 | -26.8833770367263 | -26.8833770367266 | 0.609573054244937 |
| 105 | 4780 | 4815.00144421613 | -26.8994445012215 | -26.8994445012214 | -0.0440282395784722 |
| 106 | 5340 | 5142.56820818654 | -26.4575885148215 | -26.4575885148215 | 1.21666297356938 |
| 107 | 5140 | 5146.94403333966 | -26.41925478871 | -26.4192547887101 | 0.105832269277766 |
| 108 | 4700 | 4879.16718253513 | -26.718788753822 | -26.7187887538219 | -0.828434027800182 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 4919.92223801727 | 4723.58852412546 | 196.333713891805 |
| 2 | 4689.27893272699 | 4705.20998516307 | -15.9310524360752 |
| 3 | 4414.28098275451 | 4686.83144620068 | -272.550463446172 |
| 4 | 4413.6917178828 | 4668.45290723829 | -254.761189355486 |
| 5 | 4238.01833432618 | 4650.07436827589 | -412.056033949719 |
| 6 | 4416.5056776576 | 4631.6958293135 | -215.190151655905 |
| 7 | 4543.93940519368 | 4613.31729035111 | -69.3778851574339 |
| 8 | 4684.06425763687 | 4594.93875138872 | 89.1255062481514 |
| 9 | 4673.46026263197 | 4576.56021242633 | 96.9000502056438 |
| 10 | 5136.03654237857 | 4558.18167346394 | 577.85486891463 |
| 11 | 4840.04002579627 | 4539.80313450154 | 300.236891294725 |
| 12 | 4500.84034098499 | 4521.42459553915 | -20.5842545541638 |
