Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[116])
104	5326.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
105	4545.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
106	4797.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
107	4259	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
108	4117	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
109	4469.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
110	4203.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
111	5033.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
112	4883	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
113	5361.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
114	5044.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
115	5005.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
116	5382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
117	4565.4	4598.9313	4141.3403	5075.5055	0.4452	6e-04	0.5871	6e-04
118	4825	4805.6511	4317.878	5314.0844	0.4703	0.8228	0.513	0.0131
119	4290.2	4201.8681	3730.8793	4694.9899	0.3628	0.0066	0.4102	0
120	3933.6	4018.3747	3507.712	4556.4253	0.3787	0.161	0.3597	0
121	4177.6	4493.8712	3951.5026	5063.787	0.1384	0.973	0.5338	0.0011
122	3949.4	4270.7512	3732.1512	4838.0051	0.1334	0.6262	0.5923	1e-04
123	4492.6	4862.9811	4280.9414	5474.3242	0.1175	0.9983	0.292	0.0481
124	4894.2	4967.239	4376.4148	5587.6145	0.4088	0.9331	0.6049	0.095
125	5224.4	5183.3088	4577.7122	5818.631	0.4496	0.8138	0.2911	0.2699
126	5071	5242.4223	4629.6307	5885.3075	0.3006	0.5219	0.7268	0.3352

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
117	0.0529	-0.0073	0.0073	0.0073	1124.3474	0	0	-0.0989	0.0989
118	0.054	0.004	0.0057	0.0057	374.3784	749.3629	27.3745	0.0571	0.078
119	0.0599	0.0206	0.0106	0.0107	7802.5176	3100.4145	55.6814	0.2605	0.1388
120	0.0683	-0.0216	0.0134	0.0134	7186.7417	4121.9963	64.2028	-0.25	0.1666
121	0.0647	-0.0757	0.0258	0.0253	100027.4682	23303.0907	152.6535	-0.9328	0.3199
122	0.0678	-0.0814	0.0351	0.0341	103266.6247	36630.3464	191.3906	-0.9478	0.4245
123	0.0641	-0.0824	0.0419	0.0405	137182.1252	50994.8862	225.8205	-1.0924	0.5199
124	0.0637	-0.0149	0.0385	0.0373	5334.7014	45287.3631	212.8083	-0.2154	0.4818
125	0.0625	0.0079	0.0351	0.0341	1688.484	40443.0432	201.1046	0.1212	0.4418
126	0.0626	-0.0338	0.035	0.034	29385.6096	39337.2998	198.3363	-0.5056	0.4482