| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.757882519041001 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 2360 | 2850 | -490 |
| 3 | 2880 | 2478.63756566991 | 401.362434330091 |
| 4 | 3000 | 2782.82313844843 | 217.176861551573 |
| 5 | 3120 | 2947.41768535855 | 172.582314641448 |
| 6 | 2910 | 3078.21480472094 | -168.214804720939 |
| 7 | 3380 | 2950.72774477904 | 429.272255220956 |
| 8 | 3730 | 3276.06568292031 | 453.934317079686 |
| 9 | 2960 | 3620.09456662782 | -660.094566627823 |
| 10 | 4070 | 3119.82043366665 | 950.17956633335 |
| 11 | 4660 | 3839.94491694066 | 820.055083059345 |
| 12 | 3880 | 4461.45032904205 | -581.450329042049 |
| 13 | 4190 | 4020.77928897044 | 169.220711029559 |
| 14 | 4140 | 4149.02870771943 | -9.02870771943253 |
| 15 | 4060 | 4142.18600796934 | -82.1860079693442 |
| 16 | 4250 | 4079.89866921961 | 170.101330780386 |
| 17 | 4380 | 4208.81549428368 | 171.184505716321 |
| 18 | 4780 | 4338.55323869675 | 441.446761303247 |
| 19 | 4460 | 4673.11802217575 | -213.11802217575 |
| 20 | 4820 | 4511.59959867616 | 308.400401323844 |
| 21 | 4580 | 4745.33087170473 | -165.330871704727 |
| 22 | 4630 | 4620.0294941819 | 9.97050581809617 |
| 23 | 5030 | 4627.58596624744 | 402.414033752564 |
| 24 | 4370 | 4932.56852784528 | -562.56852784528 |
| 25 | 4240 | 4506.20767482871 | -266.207674828711 |
| 26 | 4220 | 4304.45353164148 | -84.4535316414795 |
| 27 | 4070 | 4240.44767633913 | -170.447676339126 |
| 28 | 4290 | 4111.26836203054 | 178.731637969457 |
| 29 | 4340 | 4246.72594604716 | 93.2740539528404 |
| 30 | 4250 | 4317.4167210181 | -67.416721018104 |
| 31 | 4520 | 4266.32276666742 | 253.677233332581 |
| 32 | 4680 | 4458.58030728887 | 221.419692711132 |
| 33 | 4200 | 4626.39042176606 | -426.390421766065 |
| 34 | 4490 | 4303.23657482304 | 186.763425176956 |
| 35 | 4840 | 4444.78130996088 | 395.218690039119 |
| 36 | 3840 | 4744.31064633981 | -904.310646339814 |
| 37 | 3940 | 4058.9494156962 | -118.9494156962 |
| 38 | 3510 | 3968.79973288991 | -458.799732889909 |
| 39 | 3240 | 3621.08343559197 | -381.083435591966 |
| 40 | 3410 | 3332.26696146073 | 77.7330385392725 |
| 41 | 3290 | 3391.17947252158 | -101.179472521583 |
| 42 | 3190 | 3314.49731901169 | -124.497319011686 |
| 43 | 3790 | 3220.14297726526 | 569.857022734742 |
| 44 | 4090 | 3652.02765314867 | 437.97234685133 |
| 45 | 4180 | 3983.95923865066 | 196.040761349345 |
| 46 | 5020 | 4132.53510469681 | 887.464895303188 |
| 47 | 5910 | 4805.12923510965 | 1104.87076489035 |
| 48 | 5850 | 5642.49147361951 | 207.508526380493 |
| 49 | 6660 | 5799.75855831524 | 860.241441684759 |
| 50 | 6950 | 6451.72050912275 | 498.279490877251 |
| 51 | 6850 | 6829.35782485527 | 20.6421751447324 |
| 52 | 6360 | 6845.00216855244 | -485.002168552443 |
| 53 | 5600 | 6477.42750330957 | -877.427503309569 |
| 54 | 5290 | 5812.44053682546 | -522.440536825457 |
| 55 | 5630 | 5416.49198672705 | 213.508013272954 |
| 56 | 5410 | 5578.30597766179 | -168.305977661792 |
| 57 | 5020 | 5450.74981934182 | -430.749819341815 |
| 58 | 5070 | 5124.29206118258 | -54.2920611825839 |
| 59 | 5370 | 5083.1450570896 | 286.8549429104 |
| 60 | 4860 | 5300.5474038219 | -440.547403821896 |
| 61 | 4440 | 4966.66422765638 | -526.664227656384 |
| 62 | 4220 | 4567.51461611138 | -347.514616111381 |
| 63 | 3720 | 4304.13936344932 | -584.139363449321 |
| 64 | 3650 | 3861.43035120734 | -211.430351207342 |
| 65 | 3650 | 3701.1909840326 | -51.190984032598 |
| 66 | 3040 | 3662.39423210178 | -622.394232101785 |
| 67 | 3530 | 3190.69252363989 | 339.307476360105 |
| 68 | 3520 | 3447.84772855314 | 72.1522714468638 |
| 69 | 3030 | 3502.53067379182 | -472.530673791815 |
| 70 | 2920 | 3144.40793641433 | -224.407936414333 |
| 71 | 3530 | 2974.33308427185 | 555.666915728154 |
| 72 | 2920 | 3395.46332611164 | -475.463326111643 |
| 73 | 3520 | 3035.11798280654 | 484.882017193462 |
| 74 | 3380 | 3402.6015874348 | -22.6015874348013 |
| 75 | 2920 | 3385.47223941539 | -465.472239415389 |
| 76 | 3000 | 3032.6989660636 | -32.6989660635982 |
| 77 | 2860 | 3007.91699129328 | -147.916991293282 |
| 78 | 2760 | 2895.81328932296 | -135.813289322964 |
| 79 | 2810 | 2792.88277149163 | 17.1172285083685 |
| 80 | 3400 | 2805.85561975255 | 594.144380247446 |
| 81 | 2730 | 3256.14725932854 | -526.147259328543 |
| 82 | 2670 | 2857.38944904211 | -187.389449042108 |
| 83 | 2900 | 2715.37026136037 | 184.62973863963 |
| 84 | 2240 | 2855.29791277045 | -615.297912770455 |
| 85 | 2920 | 2388.97438067931 | 531.025619320688 |
| 86 | 2650 | 2791.42941472538 | -141.429414725383 |
| 87 | 2370 | 2684.24253362682 | -314.242533626815 |
| 88 | 2560 | 2446.0836106519 | 113.916389348102 |
| 89 | 2430 | 2532.41885077109 | -102.418850771093 |
| 90 | 1930 | 2454.79739415141 | -524.797394151413 |
| 91 | 2360 | 2057.06262308579 | 302.937376914213 |
| 92 | 2470 | 2286.6535654132 | 183.346434586796 |
| 93 | 2720 | 2425.60862311503 | 294.391376884969 |
| 94 | 2750 | 2648.72270141256 | 101.27729858744 |
| 95 | 3010 | 2725.47899558768 | 284.521004412323 |
| 96 | 2610 | 2941.11249113176 | -331.112491131764 |
| 97 | 3440 | 2690.16812226688 | 749.831877733119 |
| 98 | 3540 | 3258.4525946205 | 281.547405379499 |
| 99 | 2790 | 3471.83245143897 | -681.832451438974 |
| 100 | 3060 | 2955.0835555785 | 104.916444421497 |
| 101 | 3050 | 3034.59789476549 | 15.4021052345074 |
| 102 | 3000 | 3046.27088107916 | -46.2708810791555 |
| 103 | 3200 | 3011.20298916864 | 188.797010831362 |
| 104 | 3530 | 3154.28894332492 | 375.711056675078 |
| 105 | 3640 | 3439.03378538939 | 200.966214610613 |
| 106 | 3830 | 3591.34256636061 | 238.657433639387 |
| 107 | 4460 | 3772.21686335509 | 687.783136644908 |
| 108 | 3420 | 4293.47567950946 | -873.475679509456 |
| 109 | 5180 | 3631.48373120178 | 1548.51626879822 |
| 110 | 5310 | 4805.07714177455 | 504.922858225453 |
| 111 | 4870 | 5187.74934948784 | -317.749349487836 |
| 112 | 4550 | 4946.93267207436 | -396.932672074356 |
| 113 | 4510 | 4646.10433867297 | -136.104338672967 |
| 114 | 4380 | 4542.95323962709 | -162.953239627089 |
| 115 | 5260 | 4419.45382789262 | 840.546172107381 |
| 116 | 5270 | 5056.48907817963 | 213.510921820368 |
| 117 | 4610 | 5218.30527345162 | -608.305273451619 |
| 118 | 4840 | 4757.28134046218 | 82.7186595378189 |
| 119 | 5050 | 4819.9723665244 | 230.027633475602 |
| 120 | 4760 | 4994.30628883193 | -234.306288831927 |
| 121 | 5210 | 4816.72964842484 | 393.270351575162 |
| 122 | 5540 | 5114.78237314076 | 425.217626859237 |
| 123 | 4830 | 5437.04737932548 | -607.047379325479 |
| 124 | 5210 | 4976.97678230505 | 233.023217694954 |
| 125 | 5320 | 5153.58100552674 | 166.418994473263 |
| 126 | 5150 | 5279.7070522744 | -129.707052274404 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 5181.4043447593 | 4322.95156153268 | 6039.85712798591 |
| 128 | 5181.4043447593 | 4104.26470020166 | 6258.54398931693 |
| 129 | 5181.4043447593 | 3923.02505109384 | 6439.78363842476 |
| 130 | 5181.4043447593 | 3764.78616064114 | 6598.02252887745 |
| 131 | 5181.4043447593 | 3622.52791847579 | 6740.2807710428 |
| 132 | 5181.4043447593 | 3492.20798397981 | 6870.60070553878 |
| 133 | 5181.4043447593 | 3371.24607043108 | 6991.56261908751 |
| 134 | 5181.4043447593 | 3257.87591737198 | 7104.93277214661 |
| 135 | 5181.4043447593 | 3150.82554948556 | 7211.98314003304 |
| 136 | 5181.4043447593 | 3049.14289815769 | 7313.6657913609 |
| 137 | 5181.4043447593 | 2952.09335041333 | 7410.71533910526 |
| 138 | 5181.4043447593 | 2859.09597971385 | 7503.71270980474 |
