| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.290849910680853 |
| beta | 0.00429297776304895 |
| gamma | 0.28049695162481 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 4564 | 4625.40037393162 | -61.4003739316231 |
| 14 | 4142 | 4174.04161004062 | -32.0416100406246 |
| 15 | 4818 | 4825.72349912652 | -7.72349912651771 |
| 16 | 4408 | 4405.42699827781 | 2.57300172218766 |
| 17 | 4496 | 4486.04511312928 | 9.9548868707152 |
| 18 | 4587 | 4557.15601174338 | 29.8439882566199 |
| 19 | 4656 | 4554.88058395356 | 101.119416046443 |
| 20 | 4799 | 4621.96186690657 | 177.038133093431 |
| 21 | 4652 | 4594.51182057103 | 57.488179428974 |
| 22 | 4638 | 4727.19579466574 | -89.1957946657394 |
| 23 | 4650 | 4619.27204370604 | 30.7279562939557 |
| 24 | 5185 | 4926.68313896924 | 258.316861030764 |
| 25 | 5208 | 4746.39756353903 | 461.602436460972 |
| 26 | 4477 | 4454.24224491907 | 22.7577550809301 |
| 27 | 4976 | 5128.01641353868 | -152.016413538683 |
| 28 | 4670 | 4668.93695392071 | 1.06304607928814 |
| 29 | 4842 | 4751.71887631381 | 90.2811236861853 |
| 30 | 4713 | 4851.38379394824 | -138.383793948236 |
| 31 | 4804 | 4815.38190193911 | -11.3819019391076 |
| 32 | 4996 | 4865.72790456997 | 130.272095430028 |
| 33 | 4574 | 4801.72174483792 | -227.721744837918 |
| 34 | 4841 | 4822.74475739174 | 18.2552426082621 |
| 35 | 4688 | 4770.53174103434 | -82.5317410343396 |
| 36 | 4766 | 5090.7346096026 | -324.734609602605 |
| 37 | 4994 | 4781.03962389644 | 212.960376103556 |
| 38 | 4514 | 4328.69840525253 | 185.301594747471 |
| 39 | 4766 | 5014.61044808138 | -248.610448081383 |
| 40 | 4642 | 4557.39284691999 | 84.6071530800082 |
| 41 | 4806 | 4681.83115340725 | 124.168846592755 |
| 42 | 4645 | 4745.52069543845 | -100.52069543845 |
| 43 | 4784 | 4745.49420545357 | 38.5057945464268 |
| 44 | 4979 | 4838.28976904989 | 140.710230950108 |
| 45 | 4530 | 4705.88513321281 | -175.885133212805 |
| 46 | 4942 | 4790.75365450812 | 151.246345491884 |
| 47 | 4651 | 4757.17961720823 | -106.17961720823 |
| 48 | 5150 | 5022.30384342285 | 127.69615657715 |
| 49 | 4987 | 4951.69550015568 | 35.3044998443202 |
| 50 | 4532 | 4442.50142996675 | 89.4985700332527 |
| 51 | 5046 | 5014.43825567329 | 31.561744326712 |
| 52 | 4783 | 4705.5407843615 | 77.4592156384979 |
| 53 | 4958 | 4836.31086166994 | 121.689138330055 |
| 54 | 4815 | 4855.12344628014 | -40.1234462801413 |
| 55 | 5055 | 4900.93153927475 | 154.068460725247 |
| 56 | 5152 | 5048.42639731328 | 103.573602686718 |
| 57 | 4773 | 4842.95678343256 | -69.9567834325599 |
| 58 | 5147 | 5024.5495895662 | 122.4504104338 |
| 59 | 4866 | 4932.20242082684 | -66.2024208268449 |
| 60 | 5311 | 5256.33309970157 | 54.6669002984308 |
| 61 | 5172 | 5146.87280453506 | 25.1271954649355 |
| 62 | 4734 | 4646.25257706965 | 87.7474229303461 |
| 63 | 5011 | 5206.90735191437 | -195.907351914374 |
| 64 | 4957 | 4841.44790457393 | 115.552095426067 |
| 65 | 4968 | 4992.61054659915 | -24.6105465991541 |
| 66 | 5049 | 4937.0176337712 | 111.982366228803 |
| 67 | 5305 | 5066.2157962587 | 238.784203741304 |
| 68 | 5067 | 5228.93437477972 | -161.934374779718 |
| 69 | 5001 | 4912.02088410232 | 88.9791158976786 |
| 70 | 5252 | 5178.60799457254 | 73.392005427464 |
| 71 | 4903 | 5034.90040955224 | -131.900409552241 |
| 72 | 5408 | 5364.31744448019 | 43.6825555198138 |
| 73 | 5395 | 5246.12472172135 | 148.875278278653 |
| 74 | 5150 | 4794.44543572731 | 355.554564272694 |
| 75 | 5460 | 5377.39600603153 | 82.6039939684661 |
| 76 | 4968 | 5156.07023497852 | -188.070234978523 |
| 77 | 5021 | 5191.83976476369 | -170.839764763688 |
| 78 | 5118 | 5121.49960448644 | -3.49960448644106 |
| 79 | 5175 | 5242.80157525485 | -67.8015752548527 |
| 80 | 5420 | 5236.72720249755 | 183.272797502452 |
| 81 | 5121 | 5070.64473911189 | 50.3552608881109 |
| 82 | 5450 | 5323.36661326948 | 126.63338673052 |
| 83 | 5286 | 5154.8441414622 | 131.155858537802 |
| 84 | 5693 | 5596.56099823473 | 96.4390017652722 |
| 85 | 5353 | 5515.5666497517 | -162.566649751702 |
| 86 | 5017 | 5014.95694593542 | 2.04305406458298 |
| 87 | 5577 | 5440.89446195776 | 136.105538042243 |
| 88 | 4987 | 5181.45494694973 | -194.45494694973 |
| 89 | 5129 | 5218.9532500462 | -89.9532500461974 |
| 90 | 5249 | 5205.6846721386 | 43.3153278614009 |
| 91 | 5100 | 5328.12999790011 | -228.129997900105 |
| 92 | 5382 | 5325.48407403872 | 56.5159259612847 |
| 93 | 5039 | 5096.05453704908 | -57.0545370490845 |
| 94 | 5364 | 5332.53435674043 | 31.4656432595739 |
| 95 | 5193 | 5136.93836769238 | 56.0616323076247 |
| 96 | 5846 | 5549.52105535006 | 296.478944649942 |
| 97 | 5259 | 5475.05077895422 | -216.050778954217 |
| 98 | 4809 | 4991.42412302767 | -182.424123027668 |
| 99 | 5297 | 5389.94166811691 | -92.9416681169068 |
| 100 | 5034 | 4997.40987667461 | 36.5901233253899 |
| 101 | 5243 | 5122.46233607257 | 120.537663927426 |
| 102 | 5150 | 5196.75470944154 | -46.7547094415359 |
| 103 | 5296 | 5238.7269592794 | 57.2730407205991 |
| 104 | 5596 | 5375.7852063669 | 220.214793633098 |
| 105 | 4954 | 5171.65560056347 | -217.655600563469 |
| 106 | 5250 | 5379.11096377582 | -129.110963775815 |
| 107 | 5009 | 5141.5816889048 | -132.581688904803 |
| 108 | 5113 | 5546.76232437183 | -433.762324371827 |
| 109 | 5237 | 5156.68245615958 | 80.3175438404223 |
| 110 | 4575 | 4765.04395506123 | -190.043955061235 |
| 111 | 5026 | 5178.23573796428 | -152.235737964284 |
| 112 | 4842 | 4793.24109286461 | 48.7589071353877 |
| 113 | 5019 | 4937.56349164921 | 81.4365083507901 |
| 114 | 5063 | 4966.18987856805 | 96.810121431954 |
| 115 | 5261 | 5069.77327456966 | 191.226725430337 |
| 116 | 5327 | 5277.53336878747 | 49.4666312125264 |
| 117 | 5054 | 4935.75969608856 | 118.24030391144 |
| 118 | 5269 | 5258.05932793297 | 10.9406720670349 |
| 119 | 5019 | 5060.28471980553 | -41.2847198055342 |
| 120 | 5315 | 5431.93492646706 | -116.934926467057 |
| 121 | 5274 | 5236.48281423348 | 37.5171857665164 |
| 122 | 4899 | 4778.78421344229 | 120.215786557706 |
| 123 | 5216 | 5290.29019516983 | -74.2901951698268 |
| 124 | 5029 | 4968.59864533632 | 60.4013546636752 |
| 125 | 5110 | 5123.47373671277 | -13.4737367127718 |
| 126 | 5093 | 5128.10145593048 | -35.1014559304786 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 5212.48243577182 | 4934.87646264601 | 5490.08840889764 |
| 128 | 5336.57058502479 | 5047.3641054098 | 5625.77706463977 |
| 129 | 4994.17231945232 | 4693.71927230294 | 5294.6253666017 |
| 130 | 5260.67338310303 | 4949.28896846544 | 5572.05779774063 |
| 131 | 5049.24969597205 | 4727.21664090045 | 5371.28275104365 |
| 132 | 5417.83258892022 | 5085.4060880604 | 5750.25908978005 |
| 133 | 5287.23269871365 | 4944.64436890866 | 5629.82102851865 |
| 134 | 4835.14428306154 | 4482.60537090196 | 5187.68319522113 |
| 135 | 5272.91747255152 | 4910.62148668903 | 5635.21345841402 |
| 136 | 4999.64007961648 | 4627.76497374259 | 5371.51518549036 |
| 137 | 5122.1919685005 | 4740.90196880147 | 5503.48196819953 |
| 138 | 5126.39262911171 | 4735.83977715528 | 5516.94548106813 |
