| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 4861 | 4861 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 3665 | 3809.77681998115 | -144.329300740459 | -144.77681998115 | -0.623322380564578 |
| 3 | 6683 | 6733.23074358164 | -85.1181924998371 | -50.2307435816367 | 4.09620803383739 |
| 4 | 6824 | 6912.76403965209 | -80.6443714228548 | -88.7640396520879 | 0.353221999061745 |
| 5 | 7811 | 7864.01274106284 | -63.1583514766172 | -53.012741062838 | 1.37702702059574 |
| 6 | 7242 | 7321.98626638158 | -71.1433018031898 | -79.9862663815835 | -0.63894662400208 |
| 7 | 7458 | 7133.79041803643 | -61.767432074416 | 324.209581963568 | -0.183019906674294 |
| 8 | 7856 | 7904.03297126199 | -17.0888223280916 | -48.0329712619875 | 0.930837428324737 |
| 9 | 6477 | 6504.26906478206 | -30.8866831686573 | -27.269064782056 | -1.8370865688525 |
| 10 | 7577 | 7588.02203529798 | -22.7411576468653 | -11.0220352979762 | 1.48071432629574 |
| 11 | 5999 | 6056.60041733239 | -34.3946384510136 | -57.60041733239 | -2.00433255864956 |
| 12 | 4628 | 4695.25005269399 | -43.4516800939504 | -67.2500526939911 | -1.76162710735942 |
| 13 | 4144 | 4036.48941389961 | -22.2479415234312 | 107.510586100393 | -0.879920355851008 |
| 14 | 3778 | 3799.49504016269 | -29.3029009858775 | -21.49504016269 | -0.259104811829668 |
| 15 | 4320 | 4354.14496740721 | -24.7051442672017 | -34.1449674072133 | 0.77467770652271 |
| 16 | 4948 | 4923.81179364453 | -21.8545410152838 | 24.1882063554731 | 0.788623154561525 |
| 17 | 5132 | 5150.78281120317 | -20.543841704815 | -18.7828112031748 | 0.330196734160398 |
| 18 | 5460 | 5486.23967739211 | -19.2054605343181 | -26.2396773921055 | 0.47185518647248 |
| 19 | 5598 | 5493.19789648474 | -19.757570020263 | 104.802103515264 | 0.0363224925135432 |
| 20 | 5583 | 5605.29402393199 | -16.6897524311929 | -22.2940239319883 | 0.164041425393811 |
| 21 | 5917 | 5942.74184131217 | -14.1808114486488 | -25.7418413121698 | 0.469351155199891 |
| 22 | 6458 | 6414.57976670339 | -12.3555026574438 | 43.4202332966106 | 0.644542184525042 |
| 23 | 5079 | 5155.52832129388 | -17.5049932222086 | -76.5283212938837 | -1.65357206310182 |
| 24 | 4486 | 4520.43817342858 | -18.845294137343 | -34.4381734285818 | -0.817927849746474 |
| 25 | 3763 | 3731.08223020282 | -7.62060473808466 | 31.9177697971798 | -1.05357430928476 |
| 26 | 3531 | 3556.72095810878 | -10.5752202859556 | -25.7209581087772 | -0.210963010715847 |
| 27 | 5014 | 4990.92814981175 | -0.901667453847736 | 23.0718501882489 | 1.91332557939716 |
| 28 | 5162 | 5082.44040363898 | -0.598975207463782 | 79.5595963610188 | 0.12252939493809 |
| 29 | 4880 | 4933.97419127369 | -1.10865737423102 | -53.9741912736867 | -0.196069363524145 |
| 30 | 4720 | 4723.83298379172 | -1.35745320570133 | -3.83298379171916 | -0.2767308827411 |
| 31 | 4631 | 4609.0925633949 | -0.151100746724379 | 21.9074366051025 | -0.153605043025468 |
| 32 | 4315 | 4404.08543020717 | -3.0393480328186 | -89.0854302071685 | -0.26195719342219 |
| 33 | 4268 | 4257.89977855429 | -3.96168378623732 | 10.10022144571 | -0.189440147014412 |
| 34 | 4172 | 4097.97054488394 | -4.43878820202299 | 74.0294551160645 | -0.206773495946307 |
| 35 | 3432 | 3509.4750353171 | -6.17110223463653 | -77.4750353170961 | -0.774287757664802 |
| 36 | 2705 | 2735.48416626174 | -6.5889680828365 | -30.4841662617426 | -1.01629817475608 |
| 37 | 2359 | 2327.409457927 | -3.37417520721347 | 31.5905420730017 | -0.540541815382456 |
| 38 | 2729 | 2786.31149492982 | 1.96897318602263 | -57.3114949298246 | 0.595445904356353 |
| 39 | 4043 | 3965.65888209512 | 9.31056546085924 | 77.341117904881 | 1.5572368935885 |
| 40 | 4301 | 4197.77977428016 | 9.97329770478582 | 103.220225719839 | 0.295377331736589 |
| 41 | 4576 | 4590.20341832762 | 10.9662882492415 | -14.2034183276225 | 0.50692836408812 |
| 42 | 4984 | 4973.76772762467 | 11.007450050983 | 10.2322723753306 | 0.493143869927187 |
| 43 | 4854 | 4890.43974149063 | 11.585377710472 | -36.4397414906276 | -0.126453051202724 |
| 44 | 4847 | 4955.11807747389 | 12.0998677209511 | -108.118077473887 | 0.0687462161205609 |
| 45 | 5038 | 4964.0373564705 | 12.0806636020041 | 73.962643529499 | -0.0042047006526676 |
| 46 | 4950 | 4865.5485212568 | 11.7541163303582 | 84.4514787432017 | -0.146577017729527 |
| 47 | 4566 | 4610.7264469726 | 11.1410606947273 | -44.7264469725951 | -0.353284678536349 |
| 48 | 3943 | 3958.72213650117 | 11.2587603861274 | -15.7221365011677 | -0.877690963767511 |
| 49 | 3328 | 3396.28306793958 | 13.9702836603225 | -68.2830679395773 | -0.766564452474037 |
| 50 | 3106 | 3217.01145759798 | 12.3718047018412 | -111.01145759798 | -0.251189485565287 |
| 51 | 4821 | 4657.11880540468 | 20.7078226033692 | 163.881194595324 | 1.88671323457578 |
| 52 | 4876 | 4784.84446533241 | 21.024420559384 | 91.1555346675884 | 0.141864593840072 |
| 53 | 5691 | 5656.30533139178 | 22.7742534640529 | 34.6946686082237 | 1.12689397227706 |
| 54 | 6576 | 6525.80773385685 | 22.4684308701028 | 50.1922661431483 | 1.12070111897627 |
| 55 | 5850 | 5968.81368507484 | 24.5866488546181 | -118.813685074839 | -0.772423916202547 |
| 56 | 6499 | 6645.77475931862 | 29.2636803678706 | -146.774759318624 | 0.85051783339886 |
| 57 | 6244 | 6106.73222625634 | 26.0612755166674 | 137.26777374366 | -0.750775007001459 |
| 58 | 5855 | 5811.32460869187 | 25.1067403523713 | 43.6753913081283 | -0.426126233418161 |
| 59 | 5304 | 5335.54220477323 | 24.1754602191861 | -31.54220477323 | -0.663630175022807 |
| 60 | 4035 | 4020.37986750641 | 24.8033908534186 | 14.620132493587 | -1.77277123709593 |
| 61 | 4167 | 4294.18779983428 | 24.1011886756987 | -127.18779983428 | 0.331325162939537 |
| 62 | 4791 | 4879.4519668303 | 27.6345515037302 | -88.451966830299 | 0.733288307008072 |
| 63 | 5215 | 5064.60098318604 | 28.4895315557931 | 150.399016813962 | 0.208042192350729 |
| 64 | 5949 | 5842.03175378323 | 30.7181371675983 | 106.968246216769 | 0.992706841784638 |
| 65 | 6459 | 6388.91836960458 | 31.5943108955639 | 70.0816303954244 | 0.683793393564592 |
| 66 | 6680 | 6669.6169560173 | 31.4646183389863 | 10.3830439827 | 0.329730531409372 |
| 67 | 6413 | 6593.36510259512 | 31.697126136836 | -180.365102595121 | -0.143129717348949 |
| 68 | 6626 | 6713.11644404705 | 32.189842991631 | -87.1164440470473 | 0.115272257508301 |
| 69 | 6642 | 6537.22212950329 | 31.1037183702127 | 104.777870496714 | -0.274791179112634 |
| 70 | 6529 | 6453.08489132071 | 30.7611307779216 | 75.9151086792879 | -0.152737821598593 |
| 71 | 5691 | 5680.53889698565 | 29.5028221514305 | 10.4611030143523 | -1.06406812154219 |
| 72 | 4743 | 4772.13931177458 | 30.0012693760328 | -29.1393117745767 | -1.24150116177763 |
| 73 | 3535 | 3769.91181189955 | 31.6821662981969 | -234.911811899554 | -1.37012686325969 |
| 74 | 3314 | 3402.29860618364 | 29.6754117077353 | -88.2986061836424 | -0.523480591670685 |
| 75 | 5564 | 5338.04522805455 | 39.2295258184842 | 225.954771945451 | 2.51686429085324 |
| 76 | 6287 | 6135.22184020706 | 41.4724187539399 | 151.778159792944 | 1.00447373460457 |
| 77 | 6738 | 6656.96768167195 | 42.1742213627601 | 81.0323183280474 | 0.636115341282278 |
| 78 | 6355 | 6355.28045986546 | 42.3504231577074 | -0.280459865456201 | -0.455176265714884 |
| 79 | 6745 | 6932.99943815728 | 41.7083602732527 | -187.999438157284 | 0.710031696253259 |
| 80 | 7005 | 7190.24988131943 | 42.6906568743793 | -185.249881319432 | 0.282911486376863 |
| 81 | 6575 | 6438.53901661773 | 38.8707218259467 | 136.460983382272 | -1.04890714658461 |
| 82 | 6719 | 6584.0882448416 | 39.1838310023571 | 134.911755158398 | 0.141361614683268 |
| 83 | 5196 | 5180.04944238307 | 37.1953580497505 | 15.9505576169329 | -1.91136975070229 |
| 84 | 4304 | 4370.78029446136 | 37.5948724058246 | -66.7802944613611 | -1.1204865808767 |
| 85 | 4967 | 5110.18333229674 | 36.9991999144467 | -143.18333229674 | 0.93016879624788 |
| 86 | 4175 | 4364.19396451354 | 33.7353236002465 | -189.193964513539 | -1.02871267054069 |
| 87 | 5579 | 5395.29539499434 | 38.3329044478814 | 183.704605005664 | 1.31687066640935 |
| 88 | 7009 | 6722.94170405755 | 42.0740453397802 | 286.058295942452 | 1.70830100950893 |
| 89 | 6997 | 6931.95420329728 | 42.2931368358976 | 65.0457967027153 | 0.221073021435367 |
| 90 | 7062 | 7162.89166975941 | 42.2145613131293 | -100.891669759415 | 0.24971178885012 |
| 91 | 7214 | 7310.81620320435 | 42.1553555879225 | -96.8162032043482 | 0.140035475435711 |
| 92 | 6918 | 7173.14708311455 | 41.4643439685996 | -255.147083114554 | -0.236448112610455 |
| 93 | 6874 | 6784.04864179362 | 39.5624313985863 | 89.951358206375 | -0.568497116049895 |
| 94 | 7175 | 6892.44489684608 | 39.7593246923177 | 282.555103153915 | 0.0911920646797875 |
| 95 | 5375 | 5413.17567097268 | 37.8423898619427 | -38.1756709726809 | -2.01148383918733 |
| 96 | 4675 | 4809.1748039757 | 38.0676308775334 | -134.174803975696 | -0.849606716091433 |
| 97 | 4422 | 4515.8305085016 | 38.1738379329821 | -93.8305085016048 | -0.438849614473635 |
| 98 | 4567 | 4783.26818478863 | 38.9917060907072 | -216.268184788629 | 0.301657667973217 |
| 99 | 5971 | 5830.0969601021 | 43.2570522470932 | 140.903039897904 | 1.3307429195682 |
| 100 | 6560 | 6179.47394080674 | 44.1181460591833 | 380.526059193256 | 0.405504084087489 |
| 101 | 6415 | 6406.26334258557 | 44.3416875153084 | 8.73665741443451 | 0.241877091294247 |
| 102 | 6727 | 6822.0932028188 | 44.2380884199746 | -95.0932028188025 | 0.491727641238579 |
| 103 | 7077 | 7173.4008587043 | 44.2011971798525 | -96.4008587042984 | 0.406486648126224 |
| 104 | 6589 | 6885.08657225996 | 43.0930105215806 | -296.086572259961 | -0.437761246618272 |
| 105 | 6800 | 6688.49165118509 | 42.1210582156724 | 111.50834881491 | -0.316496201786504 |
| 106 | 6982 | 6617.29299463838 | 41.8082179560307 | 364.707005361621 | -0.15009211569016 |
| 107 | 6118 | 6160.80160813253 | 41.2125023028147 | -42.8016081325299 | -0.659767783910607 |
| 108 | 4500 | 4699.02274449604 | 41.5178537322155 | -199.022744496036 | -1.9894109477041 |
| 109 | 3195 | 3343.45152899913 | 41.4500733896095 | -148.451528999127 | -1.84894557665759 |
| 110 | 4482 | 4679.45184891408 | 45.5035775673196 | -197.451848914084 | 1.7051188124538 |
| 111 | 6619 | 6404.02624365666 | 52.0289784242406 | 214.973756343342 | 2.21724865672079 |
| 112 | 6237 | 5886.71392779511 | 50.4888989841194 | 350.286072204886 | -0.754006392463994 |
| 113 | 6520 | 6441.49817985794 | 51.0816017724824 | 78.501820142061 | 0.667672134877844 |
| 114 | 7043 | 7125.55715974345 | 51.0019175705023 | -82.5571597434467 | 0.837804962594842 |
| 115 | 6188 | 6466.21359654616 | 50.8659259834858 | -278.213596546163 | -0.939902403911268 |
| 116 | 6774 | 7036.34274468873 | 52.4012785825673 | -262.342744688732 | 0.684233073227484 |
| 117 | 6118 | 5941.18729906334 | 48.1254256879402 | 176.812700936656 | -1.51546416276526 |
| 118 | 6308 | 5983.95687810617 | 48.1112483438362 | 324.043121893833 | -0.00709222038991664 |
| 119 | 5230 | 5236.18927004045 | 47.1867857533492 | -6.18927004045299 | -1.05366923618258 |
| 120 | 4587 | 4662.27125383382 | 47.2169827388868 | -75.271253833821 | -0.822063214136277 |
| 121 | 4976 | 5244.65082167282 | 47.3846647718528 | -268.650821672823 | 0.707994527768547 |
| 122 | 4561 | 4788.25466686717 | 45.971688333909 | -227.254666867174 | -0.664071239506558 |
| 123 | 5456 | 5254.48376377736 | 47.4737933778728 | 201.516236222641 | 0.555028041554818 |
| 124 | 5691 | 5322.50640811228 | 47.5269702808484 | 368.493591887721 | 0.0272079394753658 |
| 125 | 6163 | 6090.52730761206 | 48.357637782856 | 72.4726923879396 | 0.953822926808253 |
| 126 | 6133 | 6236.64143695616 | 48.3603253439422 | -103.641436956156 | 0.129381097552443 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 6386.34889818407 | 6794.33724484275 | -407.988346658678 |
| 2 | 6843.96441575378 | 7259.8823771071 | -415.917961353318 |
| 3 | 7991.72258480741 | 7725.42750937146 | 266.295075435955 |
| 4 | 8745.96300750242 | 8190.97264163581 | 554.99036586661 |
| 5 | 8852.78320674837 | 8656.51777390017 | 196.265432848202 |
| 6 | 8928.41834002575 | 9122.06290616452 | -193.644566138772 |
| 7 | 9179.6196917702 | 9587.60803842888 | -407.988346658678 |
| 8 | 9637.23520933991 | 10053.1531706932 | -415.917961353318 |
| 9 | 10784.9933783935 | 10518.6983029576 | 266.295075435955 |
| 10 | 11539.2338010886 | 10984.2434352219 | 554.99036586661 |
| 11 | 11646.0540003345 | 11449.7885674863 | 196.265432848202 |
| 12 | 11721.6891336119 | 11915.3336997507 | -193.644566138772 |
