| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 3665 | 4861 | -1196 |
| 3 | 6683 | 3665.07906392578 | 3017.92093607422 |
| 4 | 6824 | 6682.80049441732 | 141.199505582685 |
| 5 | 7811 | 6823.99066572974 | 987.009334270258 |
| 6 | 7242 | 7810.93475181208 | -568.934751812085 |
| 7 | 7458 | 7242.03761054765 | 215.96238945235 |
| 8 | 7856 | 7457.98572338267 | 398.014276617333 |
| 9 | 6477 | 7855.9736884856 | -1378.9736884856 |
| 10 | 7577 | 6477.09115976033 | 1099.90884023967 |
| 11 | 5999 | 7576.92728836881 | -1577.92728836881 |
| 12 | 4628 | 5999.10431197827 | -1371.10431197827 |
| 13 | 4144 | 4628.09063953976 | -484.090639539761 |
| 14 | 3778 | 4144.0320017612 | -366.032001761198 |
| 15 | 4320 | 3778.02419726339 | 541.975802736606 |
| 16 | 4948 | 4319.96417162656 | 628.035828373445 |
| 17 | 5132 | 4947.95848245977 | 184.041517540234 |
| 18 | 5460 | 5131.98783357451 | 328.012166425488 |
| 19 | 5598 | 5459.97831611239 | 138.021683887609 |
| 20 | 5583 | 5597.99087580588 | -14.9908758058782 |
| 21 | 5917 | 5583.00099100125 | 333.999008998752 |
| 22 | 6458 | 5916.97792034042 | 541.02207965958 |
| 23 | 5079 | 6457.96423467429 | -1378.96423467429 |
| 24 | 4486 | 5079.09115913537 | -593.091159135367 |
| 25 | 3763 | 4486.03920745433 | -723.039207454334 |
| 26 | 3531 | 3763.04779792494 | -232.047797924943 |
| 27 | 5014 | 3531.01533997481 | 1482.98466002519 |
| 28 | 5162 | 5013.90196439039 | 148.098035609605 |
| 29 | 4880 | 5161.99020968888 | -281.990209688884 |
| 30 | 4720 | 4880.01864151589 | -160.018641515893 |
| 31 | 4631 | 4720.01057834615 | -89.0105783461504 |
| 32 | 4315 | 4631.00588421886 | -316.005884218862 |
| 33 | 4268 | 4315.02089018877 | -47.0208901887745 |
| 34 | 4172 | 4268.00310840817 | -96.0031084081702 |
| 35 | 3432 | 4172.00634647378 | -740.006346473777 |
| 36 | 2705 | 3432.04891957095 | -727.048919570946 |
| 37 | 2359 | 2705.04806299483 | -346.048062994827 |
| 38 | 2729 | 2359.02287618593 | 369.977123814074 |
| 39 | 4043 | 2728.97554193657 | 1314.02445806343 |
| 40 | 4301 | 4042.91313383594 | 258.086866164065 |
| 41 | 4576 | 4300.98293866151 | 275.017061338487 |
| 42 | 4984 | 4575.98181945775 | 408.018180542245 |
| 43 | 4854 | 4983.97302715791 | -129.973027157908 |
| 44 | 4847 | 4854.00859212188 | -7.00859212188334 |
| 45 | 5038 | 4847.00046331673 | 190.999536683271 |
| 46 | 4950 | 5037.98737360101 | -87.9873736010104 |
| 47 | 4566 | 4950.00581657791 | -384.005816577906 |
| 48 | 3943 | 4566.02538545768 | -623.025385457676 |
| 49 | 3328 | 3943.04118631508 | -615.041186315078 |
| 50 | 3106 | 3328.04065850393 | -222.040658503934 |
| 51 | 4821 | 3106.01467843323 | 1714.98532156677 |
| 52 | 4876 | 4820.88662753163 | 55.1133724683714 |
| 53 | 5691 | 4875.99635662242 | 815.003643377584 |
| 54 | 6576 | 5690.94612258565 | 885.053877414354 |
| 55 | 5850 | 6575.94149177753 | -725.941491777531 |
| 56 | 6499 | 5850.04798978614 | 648.952010213859 |
| 57 | 6244 | 6498.95709975454 | -254.957099754542 |
| 58 | 5855 | 6244.01685443914 | -389.01685443914 |
| 59 | 5304 | 5855.02571672216 | -551.025716722162 |
| 60 | 4035 | 5304.03642663576 | -1269.03642663576 |
| 61 | 4167 | 4035.08389214201 | 131.91610785799 |
| 62 | 4791 | 4166.99127942696 | 624.008720573044 |
| 63 | 5215 | 4790.95874867963 | 424.041251320375 |
| 64 | 5949 | 5214.97196792139 | 734.028032078613 |
| 65 | 6459 | 5948.95147563725 | 510.048524362747 |
| 66 | 6680 | 6458.96628224191 | 221.033717758088 |
| 67 | 6413 | 6679.98538813256 | -266.985388132563 |
| 68 | 6626 | 6413.01764959274 | 212.982350407265 |
| 69 | 6642 | 6625.98592038399 | 16.0140796160067 |
| 70 | 6529 | 6641.99894135786 | -112.998941357858 |
| 71 | 5691 | 6529.00747001665 | -838.007470016649 |
| 72 | 4743 | 5691.05539812743 | -948.055398127433 |
| 73 | 3535 | 4743.06267306156 | -1208.06267306156 |
| 74 | 3314 | 3535.07986135244 | -221.079861352439 |
| 75 | 5564 | 3314.01461491785 | 2249.98538508215 |
| 76 | 6287 | 5563.85126030311 | 723.148739696894 |
| 77 | 6738 | 6286.95219483421 | 451.047805165786 |
| 78 | 6355 | 6737.97018260018 | -382.970182600176 |
| 79 | 6745 | 6355.02531699506 | 389.97468300494 |
| 80 | 7005 | 6744.9742199587 | 260.025780041297 |
| 81 | 6575 | 7004.98281048581 | -429.982810485808 |
| 82 | 6719 | 6575.02842485704 | 143.971575142965 |
| 83 | 5196 | 6718.99048247665 | -1522.99048247665 |
| 84 | 4304 | 5196.10068027296 | -892.100680272964 |
| 85 | 4967 | 4304.05897406519 | 662.941025934807 |
| 86 | 4175 | 4966.95617498322 | -791.95617498322 |
| 87 | 5579 | 4175.05235381625 | 1403.94764618375 |
| 88 | 7009 | 5578.90718928721 | 1430.09281071279 |
| 89 | 6997 | 7008.90546090983 | -11.9054609098321 |
| 90 | 7062 | 6997.00078703384 | 64.999212966155 |
| 91 | 7214 | 7061.99570309954 | 152.00429690046 |
| 92 | 6918 | 7213.98995145782 | -295.989951457819 |
| 93 | 6874 | 6918.01956699628 | -44.0195669962823 |
| 94 | 7175 | 6874.00290999981 | 300.997090000185 |
| 95 | 5375 | 7174.980101997 | -1799.980101997 |
| 96 | 4675 | 5375.11899121504 | -700.118991215037 |
| 97 | 4422 | 4675.04628273909 | -253.046282739094 |
| 98 | 4567 | 4422.01672812083 | 144.983271879167 |
| 99 | 5971 | 4566.99041559645 | 1404.00958440355 |
| 100 | 6560 | 5970.90718519267 | 589.092814807334 |
| 101 | 6415 | 6559.96105686406 | -144.961056864058 |
| 102 | 6727 | 6415.00958293498 | 311.990417065017 |
| 103 | 7077 | 6726.97937526156 | 350.020624738443 |
| 104 | 6589 | 7076.97686120009 | -487.976861200088 |
| 105 | 6800 | 6589.0322586675 | 210.967741332496 |
| 106 | 6982 | 6799.98605356368 | 182.013946436323 |
| 107 | 6118 | 6981.98796761108 | -863.987967611078 |
| 108 | 4500 | 6118.05711561918 | -1618.05711561918 |
| 109 | 3195 | 4500.10696483921 | -1305.10696483921 |
| 110 | 4482 | 3195.08627665568 | 1286.91372334432 |
| 111 | 6619 | 4481.91492604423 | 2137.08507395577 |
| 112 | 6237 | 6618.85872379961 | -381.858723799611 |
| 113 | 6520 | 6237.0252435199 | 282.974756480104 |
| 114 | 7043 | 6519.98129339871 | 523.01870660129 |
| 115 | 6188 | 7042.96542482258 | -854.965424822576 |
| 116 | 6774 | 6188.0565191663 | 585.943480833705 |
| 117 | 6118 | 6773.96126505696 | -655.961265056958 |
| 118 | 6308 | 6118.043363606 | 189.956636394003 |
| 119 | 5230 | 6307.98744254398 | -1077.98744254398 |
| 120 | 4587 | 5230.0712624742 | -643.071262474202 |
| 121 | 4976 | 4587.04251148709 | 388.957488512906 |
| 122 | 4561 | 4975.97428720234 | -414.97428720234 |
| 123 | 5456 | 4561.02743268917 | 894.972567310834 |
| 124 | 5691 | 5455.94083608308 | 235.059163916918 |
| 125 | 6163 | 5690.98446095294 | 472.015539047065 |
| 126 | 6133 | 6162.968796487 | -29.9687964870036 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 127 | 6133.00198114607 | 4551.55858746031 | 7714.44537483183 |
| 128 | 6133.00198114607 | 3896.57720851498 | 8369.42675377716 |
| 129 | 6133.00198114607 | 3393.98239015303 | 8872.02157213911 |
| 130 | 6133.00198114607 | 2970.27200910461 | 9295.73195318753 |
| 131 | 6133.00198114607 | 2596.9740637994 | 9669.02989849275 |
| 132 | 6133.00198114607 | 2259.48600874313 | 10006.517953549 |
| 133 | 6133.00198114607 | 1949.13313226154 | 10316.8708300306 |
| 134 | 6133.00198114607 | 1660.26332335797 | 10605.7406389342 |
| 135 | 6133.00198114607 | 1388.95058417768 | 10877.0533781145 |
| 136 | 6133.00198114607 | 1132.336404117 | 11133.6675581751 |
| 137 | 6133.00198114607 | 888.262829435174 | 11377.741132857 |
| 138 | 6133.00198114607 | 655.053339026942 | 11610.9506232652 |
