| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.471568377610894 |
| beta | 0.0305461513693716 |
| gamma | 0.60596264204978 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 4757.75 | 4374.12659685749 | 383.623403142514 |
| 14 | 5227.15 | 5015.7823163907 | 211.367683609301 |
| 15 | 5739.65 | 5646.75604661989 | 92.8939533801076 |
| 16 | 4981.45 | 4987.64250876495 | -6.19250876495062 |
| 17 | 5020.05 | 5071.05518616349 | -51.0051861634902 |
| 18 | 5149.15 | 5219.35960035327 | -70.2096003532661 |
| 19 | 4513.35 | 4526.2838084324 | -12.9338084324008 |
| 20 | 4762.55 | 4786.80287772516 | -24.2528777251646 |
| 21 | 4990.45 | 5316.26331398277 | -325.813313982767 |
| 22 | 4963.35 | 5340.74188620844 | -377.391886208443 |
| 23 | 5010 | 4919.45127000503 | 90.5487299949664 |
| 24 | 4983.3 | 5067.43255669506 | -84.1325566950618 |
| 25 | 4924.7 | 5075.84328568742 | -151.143285687424 |
| 26 | 5175.25 | 5421.95532176953 | -246.705321769527 |
| 27 | 5470.3 | 5789.76155218134 | -319.461552181345 |
| 28 | 4969.4 | 4894.22273212384 | 75.1772678761636 |
| 29 | 5020.5 | 4981.055755855 | 39.4442441450001 |
| 30 | 5519.2 | 5145.57268504884 | 373.627314951157 |
| 31 | 4510.75 | 4647.58411653246 | -136.834116532465 |
| 32 | 4934.45 | 4835.40059464511 | 99.049405354891 |
| 33 | 5430.65 | 5319.62959368141 | 111.020406318587 |
| 34 | 5254.7 | 5528.979265934 | -274.279265933998 |
| 35 | 4897.8 | 5290.54905492057 | -392.749054920566 |
| 36 | 5305.7 | 5142.16128158966 | 163.538718410343 |
| 37 | 5055.7 | 5235.56518990928 | -179.865189909285 |
| 38 | 5409 | 5539.2454864518 | -130.245486451799 |
| 39 | 5683 | 5946.84871713937 | -263.848717139373 |
| 40 | 5125.55 | 5162.71217821242 | -37.1621782124221 |
| 41 | 4965.2 | 5176.34816124907 | -211.148161249067 |
| 42 | 5373.3 | 5315.53475362516 | 57.7652463748364 |
| 43 | 4556.1 | 4505.71848926466 | 50.3815107353448 |
| 44 | 4714.25 | 4843.62989608976 | -129.379896089756 |
| 45 | 5513.85 | 5195.6455910725 | 318.204408927496 |
| 46 | 5258.45 | 5362.99876443294 | -104.548764432938 |
| 47 | 5111.4 | 5150.47244057857 | -39.0724405785732 |
| 48 | 5422.25 | 5344.81156532471 | 77.4384346752877 |
| 49 | 4753.3 | 5276.03545655971 | -522.735456559708 |
| 50 | 5455.5 | 5415.07388123264 | 40.4261187673637 |
| 51 | 5909.15 | 5846.26719003951 | 62.8828099604934 |
| 52 | 5524.4 | 5267.18123345736 | 257.218766542637 |
| 53 | 5477.8 | 5357.37217205033 | 120.427827949669 |
| 54 | 5907.75 | 5765.2938081915 | 142.456191808496 |
| 55 | 5072.55 | 4920.05683727612 | 152.493162723882 |
| 56 | 5171 | 5275.29160254643 | -104.291602546426 |
| 57 | 5871.4 | 5839.03116885035 | 32.3688311496498 |
| 58 | 5812.45 | 5726.13906766095 | 86.3109323390472 |
| 59 | 5692.2 | 5612.76642626884 | 79.4335737311549 |
| 60 | 5838.1 | 5928.92548873624 | -90.8254887362436 |
| 61 | 5438.2 | 5554.03370723527 | -115.833707235272 |
| 62 | 6041.05 | 6146.17372839518 | -105.123728395176 |
| 63 | 6335.6 | 6571.05237879632 | -235.452378796315 |
| 64 | 5891.8 | 5860.54193964784 | 31.2580603521628 |
| 65 | 5909.65 | 5792.722140981 | 116.927859019003 |
| 66 | 6449.75 | 6229.50086762079 | 220.249132379212 |
| 67 | 5312.25 | 5352.0163451828 | -39.7663451827975 |
| 68 | 5828.1 | 5542.24646262067 | 285.853537379333 |
| 69 | 6466.15 | 6396.27789148235 | 69.8721085176485 |
| 70 | 6328.35 | 6309.13928532765 | 19.2107146723456 |
| 71 | 6131.8 | 6148.38091593592 | -16.5809159359223 |
| 72 | 6734.2 | 6382.43088777437 | 351.769112225628 |
| 73 | 6037.25 | 6172.17946197867 | -134.929461978674 |
| 74 | 6412.4 | 6840.24068203049 | -427.840682030486 |
| 75 | 6785.55 | 7112.09680582495 | -326.546805824954 |
| 76 | 6386 | 6398.15919576576 | -12.1591957657583 |
| 77 | 6045.25 | 6331.93562860496 | -286.685628604961 |
| 78 | 6597.25 | 6626.66654872077 | -29.4165487207692 |
| 79 | 5355.9 | 5506.27159790752 | -150.37159790752 |
| 80 | 5773.35 | 5744.30846811926 | 29.0415318807427 |
| 81 | 6539.6 | 6393.61811510829 | 145.981884891708 |
| 82 | 6149.2 | 6314.04487846826 | -164.844878468261 |
| 83 | 6373.45 | 6044.11009753071 | 329.33990246929 |
| 84 | 6504.7 | 6550.27327486525 | -45.5732748652508 |
| 85 | 5451.25 | 5993.77641736667 | -542.526417366667 |
| 86 | 6119.9 | 6317.96875236566 | -198.068752365661 |
| 87 | 6954.95 | 6688.57858626911 | 266.371413730885 |
| 88 | 6139.7 | 6347.11278663066 | -207.412786630655 |
| 89 | 6383.25 | 6089.79714398778 | 293.452856012224 |
| 90 | 6643.7 | 6745.10483603532 | -101.404836035318 |
| 91 | 5547.75 | 5529.70650065578 | 18.0434993442232 |
| 92 | 5974 | 5911.4013213242 | 62.5986786757976 |
| 93 | 6583.6 | 6630.35457341638 | -46.7545734163787 |
| 94 | 6571.55 | 6350.34079105237 | 221.209208947634 |
| 95 | 5736.5 | 6415.77792954126 | -679.277929541259 |
| 96 | 6027.2 | 6304.80577956878 | -277.605779568783 |
| 97 | 5302.65 | 5493.96770754871 | -191.31770754871 |
| 98 | 5825.85 | 6061.25483694179 | -235.404836941791 |
| 99 | 5910.6 | 6526.73168748042 | -616.131687480423 |
| 100 | 5733.65 | 5653.2854637333 | 80.3645362667021 |
| 101 | 5914.3 | 5671.00331184932 | 243.296688150679 |
| 102 | 6128.25 | 6122.3589826505 | 5.89101734949963 |
| 103 | 5680.5 | 5071.36017217867 | 609.139827821326 |
| 104 | 5926.3 | 5724.25354571438 | 202.046454285623 |
| 105 | 6270.5 | 6450.72063086437 | -180.220630864371 |
| 106 | 6263 | 6189.3283113057 | 73.6716886942995 |
| 107 | 6064.55 | 5890.8126357366 | 173.737364263405 |
| 108 | 5706.6 | 6314.68397238468 | -608.083972384678 |
| 109 | 5365 | 5377.12303381071 | -12.1230338107089 |
| 110 | 5884.2 | 6015.53660437855 | -131.336604378551 |
| 111 | 6504.4 | 6405.07698092019 | 99.3230190798131 |
| 112 | 6174.3 | 6077.12991563192 | 97.170084368081 |
| 113 | 6123.65 | 6165.6711943412 | -42.021194341196 |
| 114 | 6698.95 | 6424.96813804397 | 273.981861956026 |
| 115 | 5256.55 | 5630.78921222273 | -374.239212222733 |
| 116 | 5838.2 | 5678.25489140401 | 159.945108595992 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 117 | 6243.24281714856 | 5885.29823764943 | 6601.18739664768 |
| 118 | 6144.26249141494 | 5726.20311133289 | 6562.32187149699 |
| 119 | 5841.87233913984 | 5376.81588058344 | 6306.92879769623 |
| 120 | 5913.88354791942 | 5391.41297912689 | 6436.35411671194 |
| 121 | 5447.70018135174 | 4901.057311467 | 5994.34305123648 |
| 122 | 6062.62915063654 | 5421.62606592368 | 6703.63223534939 |
| 123 | 6603.5765392231 | 5869.36378069779 | 7337.78929774841 |
| 124 | 6221.85718898335 | 5476.67429490508 | 6967.04008306161 |
| 125 | 6219.49394296984 | 5428.5195953414 | 7010.46829059829 |
| 126 | 6603.59281292256 | 5724.70824215537 | 7482.47738368975 |
| 127 | 5472.2585339977 | 4680.8673461262 | 6263.64972186919 |
| 128 | 5878.99325607779 | 5065.19984972804 | 6692.78666242755 |
| 129 | 6322.85078429916 | 5305.28405155243 | 7340.41751704589 |
| 130 | 6222.52519340187 | 5176.34494773267 | 7268.70543907107 |
| 131 | 5916.2044381757 | 4870.94881948696 | 6961.46005686444 |
| 132 | 5989.05221503112 | 4891.44321606846 | 7086.66121399377 |
| 133 | 5516.87013941384 | 4450.60899360345 | 6583.13128522422 |
| 134 | 6139.52555585769 | 4929.76377101388 | 7349.28734070149 |
