| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 5572.3 | 5572.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 5565.55 | 5566.74448411525 | -5.65423354330478 | -1.19448411524547 | -0.283552732468196 |
| 3 | 5576.85 | 5572.95750554385 | 3.09089257147847 | 3.89249445615043 | 0.427941436310622 |
| 4 | 5577.3 | 5577.58554762181 | 4.28281310795655 | -0.285547621807269 | 0.0551230452832051 |
| 5 | 5598.85 | 5595.73988136376 | 14.8089461303617 | 3.11011863624519 | 0.478664141064104 |
| 6 | 5752.55 | 5727.33005409951 | 103.404603490602 | 25.2199459004882 | 4.054060575698 |
| 7 | 5782.2 | 5797.42836518958 | 78.0851460396642 | -15.2283651895797 | -1.15713967235811 |
| 8 | 5763 | 5781.84385967601 | 6.86559292318837 | -18.8438596760143 | -3.25463999646315 |
| 9 | 5694.6 | 5706.81572253158 | -55.3906393532818 | -12.2157225315755 | -2.84508514966757 |
| 10 | 5686.85 | 5675.99960724985 | -36.7110840855942 | 10.8503927501529 | 0.853638261311994 |
| 11 | 5691.6 | 5683.41825519128 | -3.16747673181363 | 8.18174480871616 | 1.53291313548044 |
| 12 | 5674.15 | 5677.71371222964 | -5.09597711100001 | -3.56371222963829 | -0.0881307498432941 |
| 13 | 5635.55 | 5642.1638762226 | -28.1973927116656 | -6.61387622260283 | -1.05838340798167 |
| 14 | 5652.6 | 5645.1823014174 | -4.44026396013072 | 7.41769858260226 | 1.10193967648718 |
| 15 | 5675.7 | 5662.541282112 | 11.4745479111971 | 13.158717887999 | 0.726051785008695 |
| 16 | 5692.25 | 5689.09166000193 | 22.5337175364558 | 3.15833999806917 | 0.512258596445967 |
| 17 | 5747.05 | 5766.26020863314 | 62.6474832571426 | -19.2102086331367 | 1.82854440337346 |
| 18 | 5854.15 | 5831.59938554356 | 64.6118116847653 | 22.5506144564399 | 0.0896989288262441 |
| 19 | 5894.8 | 5891.67136199619 | 61.294890085487 | 3.12863800380928 | -0.151667823113679 |
| 20 | 5839.4 | 5858.01942008216 | -8.14024102620836 | -18.6194200821579 | -3.17308648376945 |
| 21 | 5778.15 | 5801.74064156665 | -43.3472860914712 | -23.5906415666463 | -1.60890063210728 |
| 22 | 5797.75 | 5789.00907857013 | -20.9570461602999 | 8.74092142987297 | 1.02325564289546 |
| 23 | 5790.7 | 5780.04787832127 | -12.1860063698914 | 10.652121678725 | 0.400829607597672 |
| 24 | 5786.3 | 5778.41002078766 | -4.47979632818166 | 7.8899792123387 | 0.352242840600584 |
| 25 | 5758.6 | 5771.909134071 | -5.95626927044819 | -13.3091340709971 | -0.0676585804259621 |
| 26 | 5764.75 | 5760.28483373442 | -10.1020650348665 | 4.4651662655804 | -0.189719448561434 |
| 27 | 5804.75 | 5784.3730193866 | 14.6151798199547 | 20.3769806134038 | 1.12784051756036 |
| 28 | 5801.35 | 5812.22447857258 | 24.1797349844792 | -10.8744785725762 | 0.439642747699125 |
| 29 | 5829.75 | 5852.5543234986 | 35.8912865389477 | -22.8043234985951 | 0.535393237397038 |
| 30 | 5913.7 | 5894.48868295848 | 40.2575247881184 | 19.2113170415243 | 0.199243671124289 |
| 31 | 5962 | 5933.63994423556 | 39.4587661291697 | 28.3600557644354 | -0.0365122649578506 |
| 32 | 5920.25 | 5933.61024910681 | 10.9174527573752 | -13.3602491068137 | -1.30450448592699 |
| 33 | 5879.1 | 5915.68643418929 | -9.93564441800693 | -36.5864341892845 | -0.952929719523747 |
| 34 | 5902.3 | 5897.79823847143 | -15.6853186737769 | 4.50176152857231 | -0.262770148606886 |
| 35 | 5889.95 | 5881.71352150152 | -15.9739578204293 | 8.23647849847907 | -0.0131904220535858 |
| 36 | 5873.9 | 5863.84774220965 | -17.3402321402336 | 10.0522577903532 | -0.0624708536040089 |
| 37 | 5856.1 | 5861.99328395163 | -6.1491625709692 | -5.89328395163124 | 0.512342278195063 |
| 38 | 5870.8 | 5870.96075120773 | 4.77087955487917 | -0.160751207727891 | 0.49894490107538 |
| 39 | 5900.1 | 5881.45872612498 | 8.8853679361804 | 18.6412738750178 | 0.187875966086818 |
| 40 | 5900.6 | 5911.72656972109 | 24.2388106219106 | -11.1265697210873 | 0.703650179933587 |
| 41 | 5944.3 | 5965.40356463112 | 45.4323371829198 | -21.1035646311185 | 0.969426445738213 |
| 42 | 6066.2 | 6042.87965403426 | 68.4647379427759 | 23.3203459657447 | 1.05142045989749 |
| 43 | 6098.75 | 6071.1604080751 | 39.6156981266156 | 27.5895919248952 | -1.3181868618805 |
| 44 | 6058.4 | 6072.09440294399 | 11.8279058875208 | -13.6944029439902 | -1.2700691168778 |
| 45 | 5998 | 6041.60699434434 | -18.5848549355088 | -43.6069943443412 | -1.38981748976827 |
| 46 | 6022.4 | 6017.22735392661 | -22.7496114288616 | 5.17264607338596 | -0.190328824242338 |
| 47 | 6018.7 | 6005.91791915678 | -14.5308432145475 | 12.7820808432217 | 0.375604824192353 |
| 48 | 5989.95 | 5984.52437701127 | -19.4597004980972 | 5.42562298872879 | -0.2253790800864 |
| 49 | 5972.55 | 5976.86307453113 | -10.980822133043 | -4.31307453112988 | 0.387875989685924 |
| 50 | 5985.35 | 5980.86807748793 | -0.219496761188442 | 4.48192251206956 | 0.491582313313261 |
| 51 | 6004.45 | 5988.80295142286 | 5.61745244239008 | 15.6470485771372 | 0.266618499881007 |
| 52 | 6004.1 | 6020.225271596 | 24.0822107801754 | -16.125271596002 | 0.84520619818899 |
| 53 | 6071.05 | 6094.18816362542 | 59.8389491236794 | -23.1381636254203 | 1.63551458638766 |
| 54 | 6143.55 | 6121.07869585445 | 36.2338386219157 | 22.4713041455467 | -1.07802577664668 |
| 55 | 6191.25 | 6153.48436097346 | 33.4942134976013 | 37.7656390265369 | -0.12515610491091 |
| 56 | 6167.5 | 6172.85503446151 | 23.3846554048305 | -5.35503446150715 | -0.462024942982046 |
| 57 | 6081.35 | 6137.02341529918 | -19.0206096067299 | -55.6734152991785 | -1.93790855657361 |
| 58 | 6124.25 | 6119.65434523894 | -17.8378949585774 | 4.59565476106167 | 0.0540493124729241 |
| 59 | 6118.3 | 6102.52586208823 | -17.3300046487655 | 15.7741379117691 | 0.0232125935216533 |
| 60 | 6097.8 | 6092.0636775266 | -12.4131741471975 | 5.73632247339518 | 0.224814139470516 |
| 61 | 6074.55 | 6080.03546957989 | -12.1374500176745 | -5.48546957988527 | 0.0126074310407811 |
| 62 | 6083.9 | 6076.90623014615 | -5.69055865919126 | 6.99376985385217 | 0.294496427648438 |
| 63 | 6084.65 | 6076.28827349133 | -2.06778208157102 | 8.36172650867417 | 0.165509065306765 |
| 64 | 6099.8 | 6120.78799761436 | 31.1824453622889 | -20.9879976143593 | 1.52110069957679 |
| 65 | 6124.45 | 6143.79797527521 | 25.3397102833438 | -19.347975275208 | -0.267211488098053 |
| 66 | 6235.65 | 6206.29386222219 | 51.9004341270452 | 29.3561377778102 | 1.21336959455014 |
| 67 | 6278.05 | 6242.14322314715 | 40.4362887206633 | 35.9067768528483 | -0.523702633937661 |
| 68 | 6254.4 | 6249.87030339823 | 17.0763156091372 | 4.52969660177012 | -1.06748925829678 |
| 69 | 6177.3 | 6239.12519868537 | -2.79878597035357 | -61.8251986853729 | -0.908295532416477 |
| 70 | 6205.95 | 6207.70238133769 | -23.2484143763256 | -1.7523813376949 | -0.934561200969447 |
| 71 | 6217.2 | 6198.73693234196 | -13.0456351057406 | 18.4630676580403 | 0.466334781772391 |
| 72 | 6190.8 | 6184.30123755763 | -14.0387277100813 | 6.49876244237162 | -0.0454032792131953 |
| 73 | 6189.55 | 6189.79116442315 | -0.0833042995187423 | -0.241164423145818 | 0.637935385832431 |
| 74 | 6179.5 | 6176.00877737122 | -9.86576626914144 | 3.49122262878418 | -0.446883630567242 |
| 75 | 6195.35 | 6192.25301834788 | 8.75235098790026 | 3.09698165212419 | 0.850663734556073 |
| 76 | 6213 | 6227.72524831187 | 27.8024539945992 | -14.72524831187 | 0.871211172830762 |
| 77 | 6243.45 | 6272.86563264153 | 40.1751827911506 | -29.41563264153 | 0.565785991298826 |
| 78 | 6361.75 | 6327.4002905316 | 50.4232409415937 | 34.3497094683957 | 0.468248805891212 |
| 79 | 6395.2 | 6356.74918406264 | 35.3926750161496 | 38.4508159373558 | -0.686641148725439 |
| 80 | 6356.6 | 6352.4564909939 | 7.0955471547286 | 4.14350900609937 | -1.29301242829322 |
| 81 | 6276.5 | 6334.83821958326 | -10.5286665682362 | -58.3382195832623 | -0.805427340890319 |
| 82 | 6306.25 | 6313.72146845509 | -18.0798738964668 | -7.47146845508976 | -0.345109969258774 |
| 83 | 6318.4 | 6298.39353908411 | -16.117244292875 | 20.0064609158947 | 0.0897091710227974 |
| 84 | 6284.9 | 6281.84706143184 | -16.4234234418932 | 3.05293856816244 | -0.0139970466575053 |
| 85 | 6249.5 | 6247.16953470449 | -29.4461844767417 | 2.33046529550915 | -0.5952061823402 |
| 86 | 6256 | 6250.20701084516 | -6.28691939617823 | 5.79298915484446 | 1.05800683507959 |
| 87 | 6272.9 | 6271.87985220007 | 13.6257930481353 | 1.02014779993127 | 0.909865802224817 |
| 88 | 6273.65 | 6293.92215890367 | 19.6193438710165 | -20.2721589036727 | 0.274050382304599 |
| 89 | 6313.95 | 6343.51967777204 | 40.982655622515 | -29.5696777720358 | 0.976820331008873 |
| 90 | 6396.85 | 6364.0327827424 | 26.3929958318432 | 32.8172172575999 | -0.666699922678851 |
| 91 | 6426.35 | 6379.31784702931 | 18.4797361617993 | 47.0321529706877 | -0.361517961962233 |
| 92 | 6382.6 | 6376.62963116013 | 3.40493784271498 | 5.97036883986731 | -0.688799045485832 |
| 93 | 6319 | 6375.4517763607 | 0.141306274053867 | -56.4517763607046 | -0.149146838620569 |
| 94 | 6329.5 | 6344.8557392155 | -21.7496922488967 | -15.3557392154979 | -1.00051681514605 |
| 95 | 6321.8 | 6303.05034724937 | -36.0345723086851 | 18.7496527506323 | -0.652962414206784 |
| 96 | 6312.35 | 6294.91359544106 | -16.1597875025188 | 17.4364045589364 | 0.908519769122728 |
| 97 | 6260 | 6268.6264800518 | -23.375001428618 | -8.62648005179748 | -0.329740570646352 |
| 98 | 6283.6 | 6276.76626697228 | -0.935459857551777 | 6.83373302772218 | 1.0251623066047 |
| 99 | 6295.15 | 6294.19793296682 | 12.1317628409028 | 0.952067033183064 | 0.597098038266722 |
| 100 | 6309.15 | 6333.40684452581 | 31.3943130062282 | -24.2568445258084 | 0.880664231415156 |
| 101 | 6315.75 | 6345.94268905409 | 17.9707994557634 | -30.1926890540933 | -0.613735860018762 |
| 102 | 6427.95 | 6387.42313257176 | 34.708465088584 | 40.5268674282379 | 0.764910222235321 |
| 103 | 6446.55 | 6401.30463429857 | 19.8864163685228 | 45.2453657014303 | -0.677177649935168 |
| 104 | 6385.65 | 6386.46817575877 | -4.81539197943503 | -0.818175758768894 | -1.12864942215936 |
| 105 | 6351.45 | 6394.39823620448 | 4.25073678125305 | -42.9482362044773 | 0.414314991012859 |
| 106 | 6359.1 | 6374.24970345374 | -13.1060109396217 | -15.1497034537442 | -0.793305754810963 |
| 107 | 6350.05 | 6340.89161200598 | -27.5148064284355 | 9.15838799402177 | -0.658638641660453 |
| 108 | 6335.6 | 6312.9325708752 | -27.8309363758215 | 22.6674291248031 | -0.014450270671156 |
| 109 | 6333.55 | 6337.99582543188 | 9.8097225036725 | -4.44582543188147 | 1.7201081798669 |
| 110 | 6348.55 | 6348.39414762052 | 10.2283598572721 | 0.155852379483556 | 0.0191262110396667 |
| 111 | 6369.1 | 6371.96553911162 | 19.7122206119677 | -2.86553911162084 | 0.433368731592919 |
| 112 | 6372.75 | 6393.12032621928 | 20.737505709552 | -20.3703262192834 | 0.0468714671072726 |
| 113 | 6413.95 | 6445.66255773474 | 43.3530166018303 | -31.7125577347367 | 1.03394620758353 |
| 114 | 6528.6 | 6484.73609584911 | 40.3093342864643 | 43.863904150887 | -0.139101857974582 |
| 115 | 6558.4 | 6508.28434109484 | 28.3920231438332 | 50.1156589051608 | -0.544489796484064 |
| 116 | 6501.95 | 6512.50539778372 | 11.213193533224 | -10.5553977837162 | -0.784908405360404 |
| 117 | 6430.5 | 6475.7845957573 | -22.8484932028469 | -45.2845957572968 | -1.55657925592384 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 6453.07057833638 | 6443.84490647847 | 9.22567185791116 |
| 2 | 6444.19420750197 | 6449.717369184 | -5.52316168203053 |
| 3 | 6424.61592882723 | 6455.58983188953 | -30.9739030623057 |
| 4 | 6403.4766402873 | 6461.46229459507 | -57.9856543077643 |
| 5 | 6411.48904027459 | 6467.3347573006 | -55.8457170260061 |
| 6 | 6428.41666852017 | 6473.20722000613 | -44.7905514859639 |
| 7 | 6432.56284577697 | 6479.07968271166 | -46.5168369346899 |
| 8 | 6466.41677095724 | 6484.9521454172 | -18.5353744599541 |
| 9 | 6578.66249635759 | 6490.82460812273 | 87.8378882348566 |
| 10 | 6609.75280905255 | 6496.69707082826 | 113.055738224288 |
| 11 | 6560.09387794839 | 6502.56953353379 | 57.5243444145944 |
| 12 | 6500.96955246639 | 6508.44199623933 | -7.47244377293543 |
