| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 5445.2 | 5445.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 5403.6 | 5417.69000588922 | -2.01727636011362 | -2.00692412481831 | -1.30292005455826 |
| 3 | 5425.6 | 5422.63636472309 | -1.72024797163078 | -1.71889000390482 | 0.434429061086157 |
| 4 | 5424.4 | 5423.87220930566 | -1.63542763401175 | -1.64108502362337 | 0.195216727863689 |
| 5 | 5446 | 5436.58320798005 | -1.30414420271748 | -1.35973261650366 | 0.96155748834909 |
| 6 | 5449 | 5443.78510562331 | -1.12441830242363 | -1.21891009077539 | 0.572435391812797 |
| 7 | 5453.4 | 5449.40652768074 | -0.984713177924671 | -1.117257589586 | 0.454314953058851 |
| 8 | 5407 | 5425.67205612004 | -1.46093322048589 | -1.4415416012347 | -1.53146982757831 |
| 9 | 5466 | 5448.63027585286 | -0.93803982500581 | -1.10632756863689 | 1.64240989121815 |
| 10 | 5499.6 | 5477.66116745471 | -0.27914609068664 | -0.707035677799016 | 2.01359626081904 |
| 11 | 5473.4 | 5475.52921200571 | -0.320983838568396 | -0.73107048287873 | -0.124354789401001 |
| 12 | 5497.2 | 5488.0735525269 | -0.0229193779167396 | -0.568409903033241 | 0.862550012711987 |
| 13 | 5499.4 | 5489.93501267971 | -0.14197705333394 | 7.95960424656088 | 0.160974476376068 |
| 14 | 5504.4 | 5499.36464493885 | 0.270583440264524 | -0.407051210121893 | 0.530831643106082 |
| 15 | 5486.6 | 5492.31161888913 | 0.0474159112494698 | -0.540940467226101 | -0.469598114943843 |
| 16 | 5540.8 | 5520.350350486 | 0.750597520861854 | -0.222780688789228 | 1.84925095757742 |
| 17 | 5502.8 | 5510.79879884138 | 0.511658456431514 | -0.30786258633034 | -0.685250013906202 |
| 18 | 5519 | 5515.86686227998 | 0.615232797558652 | -0.276739669247099 | 0.303477278419863 |
| 19 | 5497.2 | 5505.65004793706 | 0.367387996295227 | -0.343170411669312 | -0.721351684128991 |
| 20 | 5451.2 | 5474.95377128084 | -0.35558994431815 | -0.521852912173298 | -2.06738078050563 |
| 21 | 5452 | 5462.00228676173 | -0.654812825497219 | -0.591249243273066 | -0.83765352785095 |
| 22 | 5426.4 | 5441.73433137438 | -1.13060821636995 | -0.695729762163739 | -1.30327108342774 |
| 23 | 5461.4 | 5452.87958247789 | -0.826700570297595 | -0.632245909580127 | 0.815069186867978 |
| 24 | 5470.8 | 5463.1277740188 | -0.547205915684815 | -0.57656026571082 | 0.734762581421824 |
| 25 | 5440.2 | 5449.52207029371 | -0.450030064378279 | 0.531631246666232 | -0.977675684796928 |
| 26 | 5418.8 | 5430.76317641077 | -1.13910391721839 | -0.434286961232774 | -1.08480048546843 |
| 27 | 5433.8 | 5432.29306530545 | -1.05647303301494 | -0.404610233746928 | 0.172518257082832 |
| 28 | 5416.2 | 5422.83630436313 | -1.29386322866839 | -0.459667785606666 | -0.552471463408349 |
| 29 | 5406.4 | 5413.12372428416 | -1.52402629672584 | -0.497615261202891 | -0.55564147349728 |
| 30 | 5423.2 | 5418.53689009047 | -1.33555528709874 | -0.472854676277817 | 0.458087627214349 |
| 31 | 5418.2 | 5418.04541061192 | -1.31250932733825 | -0.470225389652092 | 0.0557238299809753 |
| 32 | 5426 | 5422.32031249527 | -1.15853904691093 | -0.454176479193028 | 0.368705953868757 |
| 33 | 5441.6 | 5433.15430368527 | -0.824555649414672 | -0.421524569996133 | 0.790988569128313 |
| 34 | 5417 | 5423.76937771009 | -1.06551244372226 | -0.443904892577078 | -0.564341112806844 |
| 35 | 5405.4 | 5413.01974517119 | -1.34091920279496 | -0.468357539260519 | -0.638124884239306 |
| 36 | 5418.6 | 5415.92453847625 | -1.21899421355729 | -0.4579778182038 | 0.279641322118082 |
| 37 | 5411.6 | 5410.71675859507 | -1.27068509420788 | 3.8203002431131 | -0.284209634571096 |
| 38 | 5398.2 | 5402.93308984864 | -1.50405250025397 | -0.446764201718231 | -0.397204023745211 |
| 39 | 5460.2 | 5435.70893112175 | -0.40261260134108 | -0.183338340406303 | 2.22142408459879 |
| 40 | 5462.8 | 5451.24239408552 | 0.085947692286287 | -0.115636411269392 | 1.04457026585283 |
| 41 | 5465.4 | 5459.49234319893 | 0.332133548012581 | -0.0934617384205846 | 0.536226339849777 |
| 42 | 5431.6 | 5443.63385209829 | -0.154516017155651 | -0.126181914932274 | -1.06362453332585 |
| 43 | 5431.6 | 5436.71320144312 | -0.358341226187323 | -0.137627863691971 | -0.444407151678705 |
| 44 | 5454.8 | 5447.05513522104 | -0.0346135097429262 | -0.121334917660254 | 0.702619062676369 |
| 45 | 5419.8 | 5431.4132119183 | -0.509144567648178 | -0.1435641537585 | -1.02455532774192 |
| 46 | 5417.8 | 5423.43832865718 | -0.737278253124468 | -0.153697936215244 | -0.489967048993752 |
| 47 | 5449.8 | 5438.40224842347 | -0.255157201869922 | -0.133210280833194 | 1.03019482465349 |
| 48 | 5435.4 | 5436.64090615473 | -0.301619187079886 | -0.13510693627599 | -0.0988014428132841 |
| 49 | 5414 | 5424.21305621865 | -0.575383499653223 | -1.38640364234442 | -0.842754230528027 |
| 50 | 5433.6 | 5429.47054115622 | -0.371994695186803 | 0.195530056020366 | 0.361502389518849 |
| 51 | 5406.6 | 5415.96225483121 | -0.80249763380098 | 0.119932252032786 | -0.852496815408907 |
| 52 | 5373.6 | 5391.12319338467 | -1.57017333052379 | 0.0481085829619314 | -1.5727020565278 |
| 53 | 5393.2 | 5391.62794705147 | -1.50451225085642 | 0.051763846617577 | 0.13593412602717 |
| 54 | 5370 | 5378.48912346346 | -1.87188974631794 | 0.0376699543925818 | -0.762226470356493 |
| 55 | 5346.6 | 5359.28232402079 | -2.41968257347502 | 0.0210830863822799 | -1.13553369217666 |
| 56 | 5390.4 | 5376.1968113501 | -1.80757481810596 | 0.0371645622500433 | 1.26629271940232 |
| 57 | 5362.4 | 5367.45089607978 | -2.02772846180869 | 0.0318662529993498 | -0.454359894174743 |
| 58 | 5362 | 5363.42967514141 | -2.09112692779933 | 0.030429406707232 | -0.130527006444723 |
| 59 | 5372 | 5367.47298945674 | -1.89560073794537 | 0.0346581811439281 | 0.401611989167362 |
| 60 | 5359.2 | 5361.87713746284 | -2.01379014765193 | 0.0322037322591682 | -0.242221361924953 |
| 61 | 5351.6 | 5355.74270320928 | -2.12664864634109 | -1.15849868143616 | -0.282332092901822 |
| 62 | 5357.8 | 5356.0227425032 | -2.04428787890052 | 0.128814080105367 | 0.150687174575831 |
| 63 | 5326.8 | 5338.17441013527 | -2.56602117434196 | 0.0566383073727775 | -1.02674929153457 |
| 64 | 5364.2 | 5352.07764308513 | -2.03027082444449 | 0.0936349811831961 | 1.07666530909195 |
| 65 | 5354.2 | 5352.3898772001 | -1.95447900899984 | 0.096499103498572 | 0.153267161405934 |
| 66 | 5337.6 | 5342.97068335651 | -2.19564146722648 | 0.0907686179736853 | -0.488390749226638 |
| 67 | 5328.2 | 5333.4627720384 | -2.43190773970978 | 0.0866645450606621 | -0.478357691294307 |
| 68 | 5302.6 | 5314.56534241556 | -2.96432512251522 | 0.0790309932570598 | -1.07703619071424 |
| 69 | 5303.4 | 5306.81992632684 | -3.1190737457876 | 0.0770530853595456 | -0.312712483609957 |
| 70 | 5346.4 | 5328.31315463069 | -2.32163611441616 | 0.0865254113876498 | 1.60968075486103 |
| 71 | 5308.4 | 5315.78280186714 | -2.65273047959166 | 0.0827944878012157 | -0.667623481582373 |
| 72 | 5322 | 5318.20466742011 | -2.48799084790615 | 0.0845726753141577 | 0.331846546018019 |
| 73 | 5345.2 | 5331.81502447331 | -2.00709130487022 | 1.74888401034697 | 1.09325101134806 |
| 74 | 5293.2 | 5308.37324444727 | -2.73093669903427 | -0.336487991527837 | -1.35143201573283 |
| 75 | 5295.4 | 5299.91043567826 | -2.92044907410384 | -0.358172362599543 | -0.372709019958955 |
| 76 | 5311.2 | 5305.40158352042 | -2.64471256224501 | -0.343176382233152 | 0.549699691203877 |
| 77 | 5235.2 | 5263.94741484672 | -3.91279930194803 | -0.378234767859808 | -2.53766635925883 |
| 78 | 5239 | 5248.10514389686 | -4.30219943067159 | -0.38438035205841 | -0.7799856582037 |
| 79 | 5270.4 | 5259.38737121042 | -3.79353902540884 | -0.379056543132207 | 1.01884651770422 |
| 80 | 5255 | 5255.46976849211 | -3.79758947519735 | -0.379089036295105 | -0.00811015606996152 |
| 81 | 5264.4 | 5259.24365170763 | -3.55029250384991 | -0.377398215092859 | 0.494928013131486 |
| 82 | 5281.8 | 5270.99288464199 | -3.05035863548412 | -0.374295421415697 | 1.0000521714362 |
| 83 | 5255.6 | 5261.02845047934 | -3.2763874483 | -0.375611243086266 | -0.451923536875996 |
| 84 | 5241.4 | 5248.52224279405 | -3.57825059197913 | -0.377285881088922 | -0.603270380542677 |
| 85 | 5212.2 | 5225.18961419973 | -4.19439158528924 | 1.28287583973141 | -1.3335545906429 |
| 86 | 5225.2 | 5223.53032147326 | -4.10956231689144 | -0.0983669427981572 | 0.160635424321502 |
| 87 | 5217 | 5218.07717725583 | -4.15395895430895 | -0.102713900317264 | -0.0874244276685519 |
| 88 | 5240 | 5229.04235921793 | -3.65688753955288 | -0.0803898828601771 | 0.987890210532655 |
| 89 | 5227.6 | 5226.71091558904 | -3.61339563738011 | -0.079455263012317 | 0.0866412200994135 |
| 90 | 5231.8 | 5228.17055771777 | -3.44704332088791 | -0.0775972285116061 | 0.33158201824326 |
| 91 | 5233 | 5229.54997736189 | -3.28879675769317 | -0.0765532144275303 | 0.315433815751205 |
| 92 | 5171.2 | 5194.49248805619 | -4.33049709444869 | -0.0812843547285804 | -2.07611650460001 |
| 93 | 5173.4 | 5180.52397885111 | -4.64658278673077 | -0.0824183464201137 | -0.629830845186514 |
| 94 | 5088.4 | 5125.38007834281 | -6.30300480688554 | -0.0875806580200943 | -3.29985239266699 |
| 95 | 5098.4 | 5107.18018468361 | -6.69332649550157 | -0.0886963226628638 | -0.777413624950201 |
| 96 | 5128.4 | 5116.66686959087 | -6.16237861466323 | -0.0872655009341045 | 1.0572836791368 |
| 97 | 5079 | 5092.96886071487 | -6.72189500942282 | -1.29637643927191 | -1.17873694276591 |
| 98 | 5083.8 | 5084.74509763107 | -6.77184406273103 | 0.108266828291822 | -0.0955212178650831 |
| 99 | 5091.4 | 5085.67730001949 | -6.51755144876422 | 0.130098205288217 | 0.501552635573553 |
| 100 | 5081.6 | 5080.49406598754 | -6.47364011665566 | 0.131784407805461 | 0.0871797197604084 |
| 101 | 5116.4 | 5098.42444555726 | -5.6714589006935 | 0.145848265668566 | 1.59498401882174 |
| 102 | 5155 | 5128.63166628544 | -4.49259107161004 | 0.155724947208174 | 2.34469978239041 |
| 103 | 5102.8 | 5111.71918983018 | -4.90062668047049 | 0.153948511762305 | -0.811573240047816 |
| 104 | 5121.6 | 5115.27092304144 | -4.62293333418612 | 0.154662749599545 | 0.552287236824493 |
| 105 | 5131.6 | 5122.66587643147 | -4.22807218240573 | 0.15536210561327 | 0.785240779064264 |
| 106 | 5109.4 | 5113.12539507832 | -4.40263199305884 | 0.155117824504952 | -0.347103802782109 |
| 107 | 5102.2 | 5104.86381708241 | -4.52944376293919 | 0.15496363641859 | -0.252134472303295 |
| 108 | 5117.2 | 5109.99101561407 | -4.21208218571557 | 0.155317581450124 | 0.630937815625883 |
| 109 | 5083.8 | 5094.7537318667 | -4.56828159005398 | -2.98199814651071 | -0.73873764110092 |
| 110 | 5140.8 | 5119.62315453489 | -3.59313344877167 | 0.439988711410417 | 1.87769580808582 |
| 111 | 5133.6 | 5125.93766364098 | -3.26643132307532 | 0.465024630217498 | 0.645276662671968 |
| 112 | 5088 | 5102.37541382925 | -3.93450245333555 | 0.442519880127454 | -1.32603142799529 |
| 113 | 5121.6 | 5111.56404386397 | -3.5028312759721 | 0.44893221210392 | 0.857621220827507 |
| 114 | 5087.2 | 5095.74844160278 | -3.90774093149263 | 0.446252498417767 | -0.804578912377338 |
| 115 | 5077.8 | 5083.46945711318 | -4.18300967523122 | 0.44542250399405 | -0.546971540629106 |
| 116 | 5136.8 | 5112.26472481919 | -3.09860370633124 | 0.446980986673262 | 2.15467657824967 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 5112.15473173434 | 5110.9846750207 | 1.17005671363702 |
| 2 | 5104.56428382472 | 5107.86592670203 | -3.3016428773131 |
| 3 | 5101.8398061368 | 5104.74717838336 | -2.90737224655868 |
| 4 | 5108.6701867756 | 5101.62843006469 | 7.04175671090608 |
| 5 | 5092.9829908017 | 5098.50968174602 | -5.52669094432138 |
| 6 | 5090.29659217357 | 5095.39093342735 | -5.09434125377433 |
| 7 | 5091.66956576992 | 5092.27218510868 | -0.602619338754304 |
| 8 | 5093.88191353896 | 5089.15343679001 | 4.72847674894826 |
| 9 | 5090.13363721797 | 5086.03468847134 | 4.09894874663025 |
| 10 | 5087.26473563288 | 5082.91594015267 | 4.34879548021271 |
| 11 | 5078.53520989547 | 5079.797191834 | -1.26198193852408 |
| 12 | 5073.98505771424 | 5076.67844351533 | -2.69338580108845 |
