| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.686885392408528 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 3585 | 3455 | 130 |
| 3 | 3675 | 3544.29510101311 | 130.704898986891 |
| 4 | 3680 | 3634.07438684344 | 45.9256131565635 |
| 5 | 3735 | 3665.62001965808 | 69.3799803419151 |
| 6 | 3860 | 3713.27611468054 | 146.723885319463 |
| 7 | 3765 | 3814.0586082239 | -49.0586082239006 |
| 8 | 3905 | 3780.36096686301 | 124.639033136989 |
| 9 | 4110 | 3865.97369804873 | 244.026301951269 |
| 10 | 4170 | 4033.59180022253 | 136.40819977747 |
| 11 | 4110 | 4127.28860005442 | -17.2886000544186 |
| 12 | 4025 | 4115.41331322184 | -90.4133132218449 |
| 13 | 4145 | 4053.3097290905 | 91.690270909497 |
| 14 | 4285 | 4116.29043680422 | 168.709563195784 |
| 15 | 4370 | 4232.17457132302 | 137.825428676977 |
| 16 | 4355 | 4326.84484498368 | 28.1551550163185 |
| 17 | 4385 | 4346.18420968539 | 38.8157903146121 |
| 18 | 4525 | 4372.84620904729 | 152.153790952712 |
| 19 | 4375 | 4477.35842545229 | -102.358425452287 |
| 20 | 4525 | 4407.04991821917 | 117.950081780826 |
| 21 | 4610 | 4488.06810642782 | 121.931893572185 |
| 22 | 4595 | 4571.82134299126 | 23.1786570087397 |
| 23 | 4500 | 4587.74242390621 | -87.7424239062111 |
| 24 | 4370 | 4527.47343463052 | -157.473434630518 |
| 25 | 4390 | 4419.30723269042 | -29.3072326904157 |
| 26 | 4530 | 4399.17652266345 | 130.823477336548 |
| 27 | 4590 | 4489.03725823002 | 100.962741769985 |
| 28 | 4580 | 4558.38709072933 | 21.6129092706678 |
| 29 | 4595 | 4573.2326823948 | 21.7673176051958 |
| 30 | 4685 | 4588.18433488973 | 96.8156651102699 |
| 31 | 4490 | 4654.68560101029 | -164.68560101029 |
| 32 | 4635 | 4541.5654673363 | 93.4345326636976 |
| 33 | 4710 | 4605.74428296951 | 104.255717030486 |
| 34 | 4655 | 4677.35601207283 | -22.3560120728316 |
| 35 | 4665 | 4661.99999394749 | 3.00000605250534 |
| 36 | 4550 | 4664.0606542821 | -114.060654282098 |
| 37 | 4590 | 4585.71405700717 | 4.28594299283395 |
| 38 | 4675 | 4588.65800864164 | 86.3419913583602 |
| 39 | 4645 | 4647.96506125716 | -2.96506125716041 |
| 40 | 4665 | 4645.92840399202 | 19.0715960079797 |
| 41 | 4635 | 4659.02840469982 | -24.0284046998186 |
| 42 | 4720 | 4642.52364450863 | 77.476355491367 |
| 43 | 4565 | 4695.7410213527 | -130.741021352704 |
| 44 | 4720 | 4605.93692359696 | 114.06307640304 |
| 45 | 4830 | 4684.28518459139 | 145.714815408614 |
| 46 | 4830 | 4784.37456275307 | 45.6254372469321 |
| 47 | 4765 | 4815.71400912024 | -50.7140091202373 |
| 48 | 4705 | 4780.87929706507 | -75.8792970650738 |
| 49 | 4675 | 4728.75891632485 | -53.7589163248467 |
| 50 | 4900 | 4691.8327019896 | 208.167298010403 |
| 51 | 4945 | 4834.8197781701 | 110.180221829904 |
| 52 | 4905 | 4910.50096307739 | -5.50096307738841 |
| 53 | 4955 | 4906.72243189535 | 48.2775681046478 |
| 54 | 5120 | 4939.88358820744 | 180.116411792557 |
| 55 | 4860 | 5063.60292040079 | -203.60292040079 |
| 56 | 5040 | 4923.75104852577 | 116.248951474228 |
| 57 | 5140 | 5003.60075517623 | 136.399244823773 |
| 58 | 5240 | 5097.29140398123 | 142.708596018769 |
| 59 | 5145 | 5195.31585395765 | -50.3158539576534 |
| 60 | 5070 | 5160.75462886758 | -90.7546288675803 |
| 61 | 5085 | 5098.41660000498 | -13.4166000049827 |
| 62 | 5215 | 5089.20093344577 | 125.799066554227 |
| 63 | 5255 | 5175.6104746405 | 79.3895253595001 |
| 64 | 5275 | 5230.14197992019 | 44.8580200798133 |
| 65 | 5315 | 5260.95429864538 | 54.0457013546211 |
| 66 | 5450 | 5298.07750142834 | 151.922498571658 |
| 67 | 5205 | 5402.43084647542 | -197.430846475419 |
| 68 | 5370 | 5266.8184820206 | 103.181517979397 |
| 69 | 5500 | 5337.69235948719 | 162.307640512811 |
| 70 | 5490 | 5449.17910683173 | 40.8208931682666 |
| 71 | 5440 | 5477.21838205408 | -37.2183820540849 |
| 72 | 5360 | 5451.65361909205 | -91.6536190920542 |
| 73 | 5380 | 5388.69808697635 | -8.69808697634653 |
| 74 | 5460 | 5382.72349809039 | 77.276501909605 |
| 75 | 5450 | 5435.80359842853 | 14.1964015714675 |
| 76 | 5520 | 5445.55489929274 | 74.4451007072612 |
| 77 | 5475 | 5496.69015150494 | -21.6901515049385 |
| 78 | 5600 | 5481.79150327707 | 118.208496722931 |
| 79 | 5250 | 5562.98719293462 | -312.987192934622 |
| 80 | 5465 | 5348.00086209688 | 116.99913790312 |
| 81 | 5515 | 5428.36586084692 | 86.6341391530759 |
| 82 | 5425 | 5487.87358551506 | -62.8735855150599 |
| 83 | 5325 | 5444.68663805642 | -119.686638056417 |
| 84 | 5275 | 5362.47563470898 | -87.4756347089779 |
| 85 | 5160 | 5302.38989903572 | -142.389899035717 |
| 86 | 5360 | 5204.58435736156 | 155.415642638442 |
| 87 | 5435 | 5311.33709204169 | 123.662907958313 |
| 88 | 5285 | 5396.27933710101 | -111.279337101012 |
| 89 | 5415 | 5319.84318596942 | 95.1568140305772 |
| 90 | 5575 | 5385.20501151516 | 189.794988484839 |
| 91 | 5265 | 5515.57241665774 | -250.572416657742 |
| 92 | 5480 | 5343.45788391504 | 136.542116084964 |
| 93 | 5565 | 5437.24666890235 | 127.753331097652 |
| 94 | 5500 | 5524.99856586485 | -24.9985658648548 |
| 95 | 5280 | 5507.82741614112 | -227.827416141124 |
| 96 | 5135 | 5351.33609200361 | -216.336092003607 |
| 97 | 5050 | 5202.73799055558 | -152.737990555582 |
| 98 | 5100 | 5097.82449597712 | 2.17550402287907 |
| 99 | 5070 | 5099.31881791156 | -29.3188179115623 |
| 100 | 5115 | 5079.18015016542 | 35.8198498345755 |
| 101 | 5140 | 5103.78428177506 | 36.2157182249384 |
| 102 | 5330 | 5128.66032959936 | 201.339670400645 |
| 103 | 5080 | 5266.95760810991 | -186.957608109906 |
| 104 | 5285 | 5138.53915809957 | 146.460841900427 |
| 105 | 5405 | 5239.14097096083 | 165.859029039169 |
| 106 | 5385 | 5353.0671152069 | 31.9328847931019 |
| 107 | 5255 | 5375.00134730874 | -120.001347308744 |
| 108 | 5100 | 5292.57417477303 | -192.574174773025 |
| 109 | 5040 | 5160.29778716631 | -120.297787166307 |
| 110 | 5235 | 5077.6669944227 | 157.333005577299 |
| 111 | 5310 | 5185.73673769748 | 124.263262302523 |
| 112 | 5265 | 5271.09135738611 | -6.09135738610894 |
| 113 | 5380 | 5266.90729297765 | 113.092707022349 |
| 114 | 5465 | 5344.58902141924 | 120.41097858076 |
| 115 | 5225 | 5427.29756369198 | -202.29756369198 |
| 116 | 5445 | 5288.34232227212 | 156.657677727875 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 117 | 5395.94819271205 | 5163.86233513582 | 5628.03405028827 |
| 118 | 5395.94819271205 | 5114.38571437706 | 5677.51067104703 |
| 119 | 5395.94819271205 | 5072.388286164 | 5719.50809926009 |
| 120 | 5395.94819271205 | 5035.24804432751 | 5756.64834109658 |
| 121 | 5395.94819271205 | 5001.59025762785 | 5790.30612779624 |
| 122 | 5395.94819271205 | 4970.58744595335 | 5821.30893947074 |
| 123 | 5395.94819271205 | 4941.69567615065 | 5850.20070927344 |
| 124 | 5395.94819271205 | 4914.53471894796 | 5877.36166647613 |
| 125 | 5395.94819271205 | 4888.82639605877 | 5903.06998936532 |
| 126 | 5395.94819271205 | 4864.35991165227 | 5927.53647377182 |
| 127 | 5395.94819271205 | 4840.97099995604 | 5950.92538546805 |
| 128 | 5395.94819271205 | 4818.52870187494 | 5973.36768354915 |
