| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.852434355089833 |
| beta | 0.0639027324935784 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 4145 | 3812.12740384616 | 332.872596153844 |
| 14 | 4285 | 4252.69714017733 | 32.302859822672 |
| 15 | 4370 | 4388.39387044698 | -18.3938704469801 |
| 16 | 4355 | 4387.99799896256 | -32.997998962559 |
| 17 | 4385 | 4422.93890375039 | -37.9389037503915 |
| 18 | 4525 | 4564.93470336079 | -39.9347033607901 |
| 19 | 4375 | 4370.9705229979 | 4.02947700209916 |
| 20 | 4525 | 4519.49408427195 | 5.50591572804842 |
| 21 | 4610 | 4734.36780241771 | -124.367802417712 |
| 22 | 4595 | 4687.79969511515 | -92.7996951151545 |
| 23 | 4500 | 4544.9612599231 | -44.9612599230968 |
| 24 | 4370 | 4415.86944752762 | -45.8694475276152 |
| 25 | 4390 | 4539.29204968813 | -149.292049688129 |
| 26 | 4530 | 4494.82197777905 | 35.1780222209527 |
| 27 | 4590 | 4595.97278561315 | -5.97278561315306 |
| 28 | 4580 | 4575.17090430287 | 4.82909569712501 |
| 29 | 4595 | 4614.84926566816 | -19.8492656681565 |
| 30 | 4685 | 4746.17762689915 | -61.1776268991462 |
| 31 | 4490 | 4513.64253212093 | -23.6425321209272 |
| 32 | 4635 | 4610.33770040148 | 24.6622995985163 |
| 33 | 4710 | 4794.96188941442 | -84.9618894144214 |
| 34 | 4655 | 4761.37546812408 | -106.375468124081 |
| 35 | 4665 | 4588.01673950881 | 76.9832604911908 |
| 36 | 4550 | 4543.3761305692 | 6.62386943080128 |
| 37 | 4590 | 4679.77920105585 | -89.7792010558542 |
| 38 | 4675 | 4699.99819207583 | -24.9981920758255 |
| 39 | 4645 | 4727.2391310705 | -82.2391310705034 |
| 40 | 4665 | 4622.323584588 | 42.6764154120046 |
| 41 | 4635 | 4671.98867714488 | -36.9886771448828 |
| 42 | 4720 | 4763.0405896749 | -43.0405896748989 |
| 43 | 4565 | 4532.92541647483 | 32.0745835251701 |
| 44 | 4720 | 4668.69937143324 | 51.3006285667643 |
| 45 | 4830 | 4845.76075917989 | -15.7607591798915 |
| 46 | 4830 | 4857.67997144763 | -27.6799714476319 |
| 47 | 4765 | 4772.42432882147 | -7.42432882146932 |
| 48 | 4705 | 4634.81412912859 | 70.185870871409 |
| 49 | 4675 | 4804.00122474526 | -129.001224745258 |
| 50 | 4900 | 4791.03630258705 | 108.963697412953 |
| 51 | 4945 | 4922.01228884122 | 22.9877111587803 |
| 52 | 4905 | 4928.94909702264 | -23.9490970226361 |
| 53 | 4955 | 4910.15533534114 | 44.8446646588591 |
| 54 | 5120 | 5074.62029586877 | 45.3797041312318 |
| 55 | 4860 | 4940.32709665712 | -80.3270966571217 |
| 56 | 5040 | 4986.36531672998 | 53.6346832700165 |
| 57 | 5140 | 5158.88973378938 | -18.8897337893832 |
| 58 | 5240 | 5169.58174791442 | 70.418252085582 |
| 59 | 5145 | 5179.48004493041 | -34.4800449304148 |
| 60 | 5070 | 5037.32802635563 | 32.6719736443683 |
| 61 | 5085 | 5150.16912862873 | -65.1691286287287 |
| 62 | 5215 | 5235.23475743353 | -20.2347574335263 |
| 63 | 5255 | 5244.85505984887 | 10.1449401511336 |
| 64 | 5275 | 5234.68302521216 | 40.3169747878401 |
| 65 | 5315 | 5285.08926190054 | 29.9107380994647 |
| 66 | 5450 | 5440.35528484344 | 9.64471515655805 |
| 67 | 5205 | 5258.55606131997 | -53.5560613199741 |
| 68 | 5370 | 5350.1469966982 | 19.8530033018042 |
| 69 | 5500 | 5484.29645986612 | 15.7035401338799 |
| 70 | 5490 | 5540.66397814786 | -50.6639781478598 |
| 71 | 5440 | 5428.28075760107 | 11.7192423989291 |
| 72 | 5360 | 5334.34905822826 | 25.6509417717425 |
| 73 | 5380 | 5425.31387908436 | -45.3138790843595 |
| 74 | 5460 | 5533.56381962515 | -73.5638196251475 |
| 75 | 5450 | 5498.93085455277 | -48.9308545527747 |
| 76 | 5520 | 5436.35816734324 | 83.6418326567609 |
| 77 | 5475 | 5518.0256568994 | -43.0256568993991 |
| 78 | 5600 | 5600.01982505736 | -0.0198250573621408 |
| 79 | 5250 | 5392.02169950023 | -142.02169950023 |
| 80 | 5465 | 5405.58091052597 | 59.419089474035 |
| 81 | 5515 | 5561.5475943939 | -46.5475943938991 |
| 82 | 5425 | 5540.36759021831 | -115.367590218308 |
| 83 | 5325 | 5363.82086451859 | -38.8208645185878 |
| 84 | 5275 | 5207.89627299493 | 67.1037270050738 |
| 85 | 5160 | 5305.0163464202 | -145.016346420201 |
| 86 | 5360 | 5299.96812070611 | 60.0318792938888 |
| 87 | 5435 | 5365.98940443066 | 69.0105955693443 |
| 88 | 5285 | 5413.07955224655 | -128.079552246551 |
| 89 | 5415 | 5273.60593222603 | 141.394067773971 |
| 90 | 5575 | 5507.22710954308 | 67.772890456924 |
| 91 | 5265 | 5327.8312070815 | -62.8312070814964 |
| 92 | 5480 | 5434.7025704765 | 45.2974295234953 |
| 93 | 5565 | 5558.3068927543 | 6.69310724570278 |
| 94 | 5500 | 5570.5682678198 | -70.5682678198 |
| 95 | 5280 | 5444.15868201936 | -164.158682019361 |
| 96 | 5135 | 5190.84813852058 | -55.848138520575 |
| 97 | 5050 | 5138.98611853307 | -88.986118533071 |
| 98 | 5100 | 5202.13812201139 | -102.138122011388 |
| 99 | 5070 | 5112.59127190826 | -42.5912719082608 |
| 100 | 5115 | 5010.73133997446 | 104.268660025545 |
| 101 | 5140 | 5097.00796525646 | 42.9920347435354 |
| 102 | 5330 | 5218.44726820544 | 111.552731794563 |
| 103 | 5080 | 5042.04629863018 | 37.9537013698246 |
| 104 | 5285 | 5241.22446709207 | 43.7755329079291 |
| 105 | 5405 | 5348.19011323249 | 56.8098867675117 |
| 106 | 5385 | 5384.85694637202 | 0.143053627980407 |
| 107 | 5255 | 5301.85055817049 | -46.8505581704912 |
| 108 | 5100 | 5167.84768439394 | -67.8476843939352 |
| 109 | 5040 | 5103.54044161014 | -63.5404416101373 |
| 110 | 5235 | 5190.50215957576 | 44.4978404242429 |
| 111 | 5310 | 5246.78732390142 | 63.2126760985821 |
| 112 | 5265 | 5274.60065198516 | -9.60065198515895 |
| 113 | 5380 | 5266.37690836797 | 113.623091632029 |
| 114 | 5465 | 5473.59730100601 | -8.59730100600609 |
| 115 | 5225 | 5192.82625523534 | 32.1737447646619 |
| 116 | 5445 | 5396.53226945098 | 48.4677305490231 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 117 | 5518.27250344469 | 5375.2856876966 | 5661.25931919277 |
| 118 | 5503.90733576361 | 5310.87615440845 | 5696.93851711877 |
| 119 | 5419.59334470554 | 5182.61744727928 | 5656.5692421318 |
| 120 | 5330.73011044536 | 5052.78015002935 | 5608.68007086137 |
| 121 | 5336.89109354032 | 5019.59283536854 | 5654.1893517121 |
| 122 | 5509.41776450512 | 5153.68623307675 | 5865.1492959335 |
| 123 | 5543.56734086658 | 5149.89523365489 | 5937.23944807828 |
| 124 | 5516.3421227871 | 5084.9514236154 | 5947.73282195879 |
| 125 | 5544.59972749285 | 5075.52949978801 | 6013.66995519768 |
| 126 | 5640.85281622181 | 5134.01369813917 | 6147.69193430446 |
| 127 | 5377.81958462817 | 4833.02943356845 | 5922.60973568789 |
| 128 | 5559.1442030861 | 4976.15238170407 | 6142.13602446814 |
